Italy will travel to Bosnia and Herzegovina to face their national team at Stadion Bilino Polje in Zenica, as both teams reached the finals of the FIFA World Cup playoffs in Path A.
Both teams advanced to the semi-finals after struggling to top their respective groups in the qualifiers.
The objective remains the same: winning the match and getting their ticket to the FIFA World Cup.
For Italy, it will be very problematic to fail to qualify for the World Cup for a third successive time, following their failures in 2018 and 2022.
For Bosnia and Herzegovina, the national team was unable to qualify for the last two editions of the FIFA World Cup, with their only participation in the tournament coming in 2014 in Brazil.
Therefore, Bosnia and Herzegovina hope to qualify for the FIFA World Cup for only the second time at the expense of Italy, who have won the competition four times.
This means that eliminating Italy would be considered an achievement in itself for Bosnia and Herzegovina.
In this tactical preview, we explore what to expect from Bosnia and Herzegovina, their strengths and weaknesses, and how Italy should approach the game to avoid unpleasant surprises from Bosnia and Herzegovina’s side.
What Should Italy Expect From Bosnia And Herzegovina?
Following an unconvincing performance against Northern Ireland, it will be important for Italy to fix what went wrong in that match and focus extensively on Bosnia and Herzegovina’s strengths and weaknesses.
The match will be tricky for Italy, mainly because Bosnia and Herzegovina have been on a positive run, progressing since last year, with six wins, three draws, and only two losses since March 2025.
Furthermore, this is a team that scores many goals and can defend well, with 23 goals scored and three clean sheets since March 2025.
Italy will therefore have to prepare well enough for this match to limit their strengths and exploit their weaknesses, especially in defence.
One of the most notable weaknesses of this team is a lack of group experience, which often leads to inconsistent performance within the same match.
In other words, Bosnia and Herzegovina can have momentum but is expected to have negative periods in the same match, as they are usually unable to avoid or limit them due to their lack of experience as a group.
They indeed have a veteran striker in Edin Džeko, who is capable of making the difference and troubling Italy’s defence.
Yet, the team lacks attacking variation and concrete support for their striker.
Bosnia and Herzegovina have often relied on the 4-4-2 formation, especially in the last few games, with Ermedin Demirović forming an attacking duo with Džeko.
Although Bosnia and Herzegovina resorts to the 4-2-3-1 formation at times, it is expected that they will stick to their successful 4-4-2 formation, which helped them draw against Wales and win in the penalty shootouts.
Bosnia And Herzegovina’s Reliance On Aerial Duels Superiority
In terms of playing style, Bosnia and Herzegovina confirmed against Wales that they like to rely on one of their most remarkable attacking strengths: the ability to win aerial duels.
Therefore, their wing-backs, Amar Memić and Esmir Bajraktarević, often aim for crosses as plan-A solutions from the wings rather than cutting inside.
With a tall and reliable striker like Džeko in the box, Bosnia and Herzegovina usually wins a large share of aerial duels against defenders, which helps them create attacking threats mainly through intelligent header passes.
As an example, one of the most dangerous actions that saw Bosnia and Herzegovina apply this idea occurred against Wales but was miraculously saved by their goalkeeper.
This type of action involves one of the wing-backs quickly advancing from the wing with both strikers attacking the penalty box, one attacking the near post and the other leaning towards the far post.
This helps both strikers distract defenders and avoid intensifying the opposing defenders’ presence in one area, thereby avoiding double marking.
In this action, the wing-back launches a very accurate cross towards the far post where Džeko was positioned, and the latter provides a header in the form of an assist to Demirović, who orients a powerful header towards a difficult angle.
Although Demirović could have done better with his header, the action highlights Bosnia and Herzegovina’s ability to create dangerous situations by exploiting crosses well, even when both strikers are facing three defenders.
Italy’s defensive trio can indeed be more powerful and more compact than Wales’ defence.
Still, it will be essential for them to keep an eye on Bosnia and Herzegovina’s strikers’ off-the-ball movement, especially during crosses, and to ensure tight man-marking to avoid similar situations.
More importantly, preventing them from winning aerial duels in the box will be key to limiting one of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s most-used attacking plans.
But to succeed in doing so, Italy’s defenders will have to be more intelligent and more aggressive in these aerial duels, knowing that all of Italy’s three defenders are good enough in this regard.
Bosnia and Herzegovina scored their single goal against Wales thanks to a header from a corner-kick, which confirms the team’s reliance on these aerial duels and their ability to score using this solution.
Bosnia And Herzegovina Wing Threats & Shooting From Distance
In addition to Bosnia and Herzegovina’s dangerous set-piece taking and efficient reliance on crosses and aerial duels to score, Italy should pay attention to their wing-backs’ penetrations and cutting inside.
It will be essential for Italy to close down both wing-backs, as they are known for their agile, explosive penetrations that can cause a lot of issues for the Azzurri defence.
The fact that Italy are relying on both Federico Dimarco and Matteo Politano as wing-backs can aggravate this issue and give both more freedom and, therefore, more opportunities to create threats from the wings, as neither is reliable enough in the defensive phases since they often have attacking duties.
In order to limit Bosnia and Herzegovina’s wing threats, it will be crucial for Italy to keep an eye on both wing-backs’ movements and instruct both Nicoló Barella and Sandro Tonali to lean towards both wings to ensure double marking on these wing-backs whenever needed.
This double marking will be necessary as the three defenders will be busy marking Bosnia and Herzegovina’s attacking duo and should not leave one of these strikers unmarked for the sake of doubling the marking on one of the wingers.
Applying strict marking instructions on both wing-backs will therefore be necessary for Italy to further limit Bosnia and Herzegovina’s attacking weapons.
The following goal action showcases one of the times when Bosnia and Herzegovina’s wing-back Bajraktarević was allowed some time and space to penetrate, and the result was a magnificent solo effort that led to a goal.
The action highlights the player’s ability to get away from the marking to receive the ball, then cut inside and shoot from distance with power and accuracy, surprising the goalkeeper and scoring a crucial goal at a delicate time.
This goal action leads us to another important aspect that Italy should consider when preparing for this match: limiting shooting from distance.
Both wing-backs are known for often attempting shots from distance, especially when facing teams that defend well, knowing that resorting to these solutions has often borne fruit for the team and is not considered a desperate measure.
Therefore, Italy’s defensive phase should be prepared to block shooting trajectories and avoid giving space and time for shooting from distance, especially when noticing penetration attempts from the wings, as in the example.
Focusing on the aerial duels, defending well against set-pieces and crosses, and double-marking wing-backs to prevent them from shooting should do the job for Italy in terms of defending.
But on the other hand, Bosnia and Herzegovina can exploit Italy’s psychological and mental vulnerability due to their missed qualifications in the past and work on exploiting that in their favour by intensifying their high pressing on Italy’s defence and exploiting the slow Italy build from the back to push their players into committing mistakes in their own third.
Northern Ireland tried to do that, but were not successful as they lacked dangerous attacking players to benefit from Italy’s mistakes.
But Bosnia and Herzegovina have the attacking resources needed to punish Italy for their potential build-up errors.
Bosnia And Herzegovina Defensive Weaknesses
Bosnia and Herzegovina can be surprisingly strong in attack; however, they risk committing errors in the defensive phase, as they lack cohesion in their defensive line movements and marking.
Italy can exploit these weaknesses very well thanks to their reliance on an attacking duo, which will likely be made up of Moise Kean and Francesco Pio Esposito this time, given the latter’s greater impact on the game compared to Mateo Retegui, who started the match.
The following picture highlights one of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s recurrent defensive errors: spaces left at the back of their defensive line due to a lack of discipline and awareness in tight marking of strikers, and an inability to maintain tight marking throughout the match.
This gives a very suitable opportunity for both of Italy’s strikers to escape marking during similar actions and to exploit the fact that Italy uses two strikers in order to beat their direct opponents, especially since Bosnia and Herzegovina usually plays with two centre-backs.
This would allow both Italy’s strikers to deal with one defender each, increasing the possibilities of escaping from marking and asking for the ball at the back of the defensive line with success.
Moreover, Italy can benefit from both wing-backs’ crossing and penetration abilities, as well as their midfielders’ support in the final third.
Both solutions can disturb Bosnia and Herzegovina, as Italy’s attacking duo can be very dangerous in the air, and we saw during the match against Northern Ireland that their midfielders are heavily involved in the attacking phase, with the ability to be first on second balls and to attempt shots from distance whenever possible.
Overall, Italy have had more chances to score against Bosnia and Herzegovina but should keep an eye on the defensive phase, as Bosnia and Herzegovina can be very dangerous in counterattacks, set-pieces, or crosses.
Keeping in mind that Bosnia and Herzegovina are way more powerful than Northern Ireland, especially in attack, will be very important for Italy, as they will have to avoid defensive mistakes against this team if they want to secure their FIFA World Cup qualification.
Predicted Bosnia And Herzegovina Vs Italy Lineups & Formations
For Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sergej Barbarez will most likely rely on the same 4-4-2 formation, with Nikola Vasilj as goalkeeper, Nikola Katić and Tarik Muharemović as centre-backs, and Amar Dedić and Sead Kolašinac as full-backs.
The midfield will most likely be formed of Ivan Šunjić and Benjamin Tahirović as central midfielders, with Bajraktarević and Memić on the wings if both of them recover well from the last game.
In attack, the strikers Džeko and Demirović will certainly be relied on to keep the team’s hopes alive for scoring against Italy, as these two strikers represent the best options in attack.
For Italy, it is expected that Gennaro Gattuso will use the same formation as against Northern Ireland, with some adjustments, especially to the attacking duo.
Following Esposito’s positive impact on the Northern Ireland game, Gattuso will most likely prefer him to start over Retegui, as the latter was not as convincing as Esposito.
For the rest, the team will play in a 3-5-2 formation with Gianluigi Donnarumma as goalkeeper and a defensive trio of Riccardo Calafiori, Alessandro Bastoni, if he recovers well, and Gianluca Mancini.
The midfield will most likely be made up of the same trio: Manuel Locatelli, Tonali, and Barella, with both Dimarco and Politano playing as wing-backs.
And in attack, the Azzurri will most likely use both Esposito and Kean as the starting strikers.
Conclusion
The match represents a golden opportunity for both sides to qualify for the FIFA World Cup following a long and tiring qualification journey.
It is therefore expected to be a very tense match, with both sides trying to concede nothing to their opponents.
Things will be even more complicated for Italy as they will be playing in tough conditions at an away stadium, with local fans obviously cheering for Bosnia and Herzegovina and putting even more pressure on the favourites, Italy.
Therefore, it will be crucial for the Azzurri to handle this pressure, remain patient, and punish Bosnia and Herzegovina with intelligence, focusing on their weaknesses while paying attention to their strengths.
On the other hand, Bosnia and Herzegovina will do their best to exploit spaces Italy may leave at the back or marking errors they might commit inside the box to try to score a goal before retreating to prevent Italy from scoring.
This would be the perfect scenario for Bosnia and Herzegovina, as it would allow them to push Italy out of their comfort zone and exploit their advances with counterattacks.
