AC Milan face Inter Milan in the Derby della Madonnina in Gameweek 28 of Serie A in a match that could prove pivotal in the title race.
Inter Milan are preparing for the derby, knowing they need to avoid a loss but can accept a draw or, obviously, a win.
A loss might put some pressure on them in the remaining games and help Milan bounce back, exploiting any potential missteps by Inter Milan in the upcoming games.
A loss in this match would make the difference between the two seven points, a gap that can be a bit risky for Inter Milan, who will still need to face teams like Atalanta, Roma, Como away, Torino away, Lazio away, and Bologna away.
For I Rossoneri, this match will be decisive for their chances of battling for the Scudetto, as they strictly need a win to keep their chances alive, while hoping for some negative results for Inter Milan in the last games of the season.
In other words, a draw or a loss would be a complete failure for AC Milan in this Derby, as it would also put them in an uncomfortable position of risking losing their second spot to teams coming from behind.
And that’s what makes this match even more interesting to follow.
In this Derby della Madonnina tactical analysis, we examine the expected formations and lineups for both teams, the approaches required, and the mistakes to avoid.
AC Milan Lineup, Formation & Tactics
AC Milan have lost only twice this season but drew on nine occasions, something that confirms the team’s improved defensive organisation as well as their ability to frequently make comebacks.
More importantly, their ability to perform well in big games is impressive, as they have avoided defeat against all the top Serie A teams this season, including Inter Milan.
This helped the team build a stronger personality as well as improve the team’s overall mentality when approaching such games.
This time, AC Milan will have to cope with the added pressure to win the match, knowing this is not the kind of situation they are built to handle.
AC Milan like to be considered the underdogs and are more accustomed to playing in their own half for most of the game.
This gives them the opportunity to then launch quick counterattacks through smooth attacking transitions.
AC Milan Decisive Counterattacking Actions
In fact, AC Milan decided the previous derby thanks to a counterattacking action made up of four quick passes that helped them advance quickly towards Inter Milan’s penalty box following a recovery from Youssouf Fofana.
It was then finished by Alexis Saelemaekers towards goal with Christian Pulisic following the action and exploiting the second ball coming from the goalkeeper to score.
This type of action represents the signature of Massimiliano Allegri’s version of AC Milan, as the team has always been using such attempts to win or get back in games.
These quick counterattacks allow them to win time over the opponent and help them attack with a reduced number of defenders, in this case, 3v3, making their time and space more suitable for shooting on target.
AC Milan Midfield Role In Counterattacking
AC Milan’s counterattacking plans rely heavily on midfielders like Adrien Rabiot and Fofana, since both players are very reliable in recoveries and valuable in attacking transitions, whether through passing or quick ball progressions.
Rabiot has become even more dangerous thanks to his penetrations into the box, his reliable positioning, and his ability to protect the ball and act intelligently in the opponent’s final third.
That’s why it is important for Allegri to start with this midfield duo alongside Luka Modrić, who will dictate the game from the back and support the team extensively through playmaking and key passes between the lines.
It is therefore understandable for Allegri to opt for this trio at the expense of Samuele Ricci, Ardon Jashari, and Ruben Loftus-Cheek, mainly because the above trio guarantees more quality in counterattacks and has more chemistry with the rest of the team, especially the attacking players.
Rabiot, in particular, can be extremely useful, even from a goalscoring perspective, as he can surprise Inter Milan’s defenders with penetrations at key moments and exploit key passes well, as he did previously, thanks to his remarkable goalscoring traits.
This is one of the many times when Rabiot succeeded in surprising opposing defences with penetrations while asking for the ball inside the box, receiving it successfully, before turning while protecting it and shooting with accuracy from a complicated angle.
This means that Inter Milan will have to keep an eye on Rabiot’s penetrations during this match; otherwise, they risk conceding very dangerous occasions.
AC Milan Attacking Duo
What further confirms that AC Milan will keep using a counterattacking approach is their reliance on an attacking duo made up of Pulisic and Rafael Leão and some unique features characterise that: Neither of them is a proper number nine; both are explosive wingers converted into second strikers, and both of them like to play in spaces and rely on their pace and dribbling skills extensively.
These features support the idea of relying mainly on counterattacking and conceding possession to Inter Milan.
That said, choosing to play with Pulisic and Leão has its drawbacks, mainly in winning aerial duels, especially if AC Milan have to resort to long passes and Inter Milan apply high pressure.
Furthermore, playing these two players as strikers would mean that Leão would most likely be the main striker inside the box, which would therefore limit his movements outside that area, knowing that Leão becomes much more dangerous whenever he moves towards the left wing.
And more importantly, Allegri should expect a plot twist in terms of Inter Milan’s approach to the game.
In other words, AC Milan should prepare an alternative plan in case Inter Milan deliberately choose to retreat and give possession away to AC Milan as a solution to limit their counterattacking threats.
This would put AC Milan in trouble, as they usually struggle to score when playing against teams that defend in their own half and use a low defensive block.
Using a Pulisic-Leão attacking duo would not help at all if Inter Milan play in this way, as both players struggle with intense marking and tight spaces, unlike proper strikers like Niclas Füllkrug, who could be more useful in similar situations.
That said, Leão has been adapting well to the main striker role and has already started to develop striker reflexes and movements, making him dangerous in terms of goalscoring lately and dynamic on the ball.
But against Inter Milan’s powerful defenders, it would be complicated to rely mainly on aerial duels for scoring, especially since Inter Milan usually defends with three centre-backs.
AC Milan Formation & Lineup
AC Milan will most likely start the match in a 3-5-2 formation, with Mike Maignan as goalkeeper, Fikayo Tomori, Koni De Winter, and Strahinja Pavlović as centre-backs, given that Matteo Gabbia is absent.
The midfield will be formed of Rabiot and Fofana as central midfielders, Modrić as the defensive playmaker, and both Saelemaekers and Pervis Estupiñán as the wing-backs.
It is true that Estupiñán is not Allegri’s first choice in that role, but Davide Bartesaghi’s return from injury would likely lead Allegri to rely more on Estupiñán than on the Italian, to avoid using a player who is not 100% fit yet.
In attack, the attacking duo will most likely be formed of Pulisic and Leão, with Pulisic moving inside and outside of the box and Leão being the main striker inside the box.
Inter Milan Lineup, Formation & Tactics
It is important to note that Inter Milan have less tools available for this match, with a few impactful absences such that of Lautaro Martínez in particular.
Added to that, a late sickness of Marcus Thuram is putting the latter’s participation in doubt ahead of the Derby, keeping Cristian Chivu with only two certain choices in attack: Pio Esposito and Ange-Yoan Bonny.
Furthermore, Inter Milan are yet to have a 100% fit Denzel Dumfries on the right wing, and that has been a huge loss for the team this season.
And in midfield, the participation of Hakan Çalhanoğlu is unlikely as well, with Piotr Zieliński being the favourite to play in front of defence.
Inter Milan Federico Dimarco Weapon
Federico Dimarco has become Inter Milan’s main attacking weapon in the latest period, and his presence in the derby will certainly be valuable for the team.
As he will be facing Saelemaekers and Tomori when he advances, Dimarco can do well as a wide playmaker on that side while pushing his direct opponents for committing fouls.
Inter Milan will most likely keep relying on Dimarco’s dangerous crossing, penetrations, and shooting from distance as he has been extremely useful on these aspects.
That said, Chivu should note that Milan might intensify their tight marking on Dimarco, especially by instructing Fofana to always lean towards his own zone.
AC Milan will most likely prepare defensive plans to limit Dimarco’s attacking threats, and that’s why Inter Milan should rely on alternative and diversified attacking solutions involving Dimarco and not only rely on his predictable crossing solutions.
For instance, opting for combinations that include movements without the ball at the back of the defensive line from Dimarco would prove useful, especially if AC Milan defenders fail to notice his movement on time, like in this example.
Inter Milan Varied Attacking Solutions
Inter Milan can use many of their successful attacking solutions to score against Milan, as they are extremely dangerous in terms of crossing and exploiting aerial duels.
With a player like Esposito inside the box, Inter Milan are capable of disturbing Milan thanks to the latter’s exceptional abilities in the air, knowing that Milan are still subject to committing errors when defending set-pieces and in aerial duels in general.
Furthermore, the advancing of defenders to support the attacks and create numerical superiority can serve Inter Milan a lot as all of Alessandro Bastoni, Yann Bisseck, and Manuel Akanji are excellent in the air and can create problems to Milan’s defence.
In addition, Inter Milan’s long-range solutions can be useful in this game, as players like Dimarco and Nicolò Barella have the shooting skills needed to surprise Maignan from distance.
That said, it will be crucial for Inter Milan to know when to push their defenders to support the attacks and when to remain at the back, as they risk conceding crucial counterattacks from AC Milan.
Therefore, guaranteeing the balance will be complicated but necessary for Inter Milan to not concede goals.
The perfect plan for Inter Milan would be to wait for AC Milan in their own half and force them to have possession, then punish them with counterattacks, knowing that Inter Milan are well-equipped to punish any team thanks to their efficient attacking transitions.
More importantly, Inter Milan are used to finding solutions when facing teams that sit in their own halves, whereas AC Milan usually suffer when in similar situations.
Inter Milan will need to exploit this weakness and use it against AC Milan in order to “destroy” their counterattacking-based match plan and use it against them instead.
Chivu will most likely start the Derby in the 3-5-2 formation, with Yann Sommer in goal behind Bisseck, Akanji, and Bastoni as the three centre-backs.
Luis Henrique and Dimarco would be the wing-backs, while the defensive midfielder role is still in doubt between Zieliński and Çalhanoğlu, with the Polish international more likely to start.
Barella and Henrikh Mkhitaryan will more likely be the starting central midfielders at the expense of Petar Sučić.
And upfront, the attacking duo will be Bonny and Esposito, especially if Thuram does not recover quickly from his illness.
Inter Milan Milan Formation & Lineup
Conclusion
The Derby della Madonnina promises to be very entertaining, especially from a tactical perspective, as it will be important to see how both teams find solutions to each other’s approaches to the game.
With the game’s crucial importance to AC Milan, Inter Milan will have the chance to use the pressure on their local rivals to their advantage and successfully counter AC Milan’s counterattacking plan.
At the same time, AC Milan should be ready to deal with a retreating Inter Milan by preparing alternatives, such as subbing in a proper striker or finding other ways to break Inter Milan’s defence.
