Total Football Analysis’ predictions model has flagged Everton as the best value bet this weekend to beat Spurs at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Our Spurs v Everton prediction model gives Everton a 45% chance of success, while the best available price is 3.71. This implies that the bookies believe Everton has just a 27% chance of winning, giving the selection an 18% edge.
Spurs, meanwhile, are odds of around even money to get their first win of the season, implying a chance of 50%.
Spurs poor home form predicted to continue
The model takes into account various stats to spit out its probability predictions. Largely, the perceived value in backing Everton comes from Spurs’ dire home form in recent times.
In each of the last two seasons, the club has lost 10 of its 19 Premier League matches at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
A big summer of spending has led many to predict a change of fortunes this season. However, the trend continued in the first home match of the season as Spurs lost 2-0 to Newcastle.
In that match, the bookies also had Spurs as favourites at around 2.2. Newcastle delivered at a price of roughly 2.95.
The bookies continue to price up Spurs games, seemingly based on historical reputation rather than any signs of improvement. The club finished 17th in the last two seasons and are back in the relegation zone already, sitting in 18th place.
Everton unbeaten start adds to value
Everton, meanwhile, have started fairly strongly. New signing Ainsley Maitland-Niles bagged a late equaliser last time out against Man United to maintain their unbeaten record through three games.
They drew with Bournemouth in their only away outing so far, adding to a decent away record in recent times.
Last season, they won 7 of their 19 league fixtures on the road. More than double the amount of home wins that Spurs recorded (3).
The slight concern would be that one of Spurs’ rare recent home wins came against Everton. However, that was on the last day of the season when Spurs’ future in the division was still in jeopardy. Everton were safe in mid-table, with no chance of relegation and no hope of making the European spots.
The team will be more motivated to win this time out, and while their summer transfer window did not go as planned, Spurs’ spending is yet to show any sign of turning things around.
Coventry and Man Utd could be other value bets
In the other Premier League fixtures this weekend, Coventry and Man United’s odds to get wins at home stand out.
Coventry are available at odds of around 3/1 to beat Brighton. Like Spurs, the newly promoted side are yet to get off the mark this season, but showed plenty of promise in defeat at Man City last week.
Brighton got off to a flyer in their opener, scoring four in the first half against Aston Villa. Subsequent games have highlighted defensive frailties, with four conceded to Chelsea and a draw at home to Leeds.
They managed only five wins away from home last season, suggesting odds of 1.91 are too short.
Man Utd are also underdogs to win at home against rivals Man City. Michael Carrick led the side to a 2-0 win in this fixture last season, his first as boss after being appointed in January.
That win sparked a run of five home victories in a row. Under Carrick, they have won ten of eleven at Old Trafford, including their first two this campaign, scoring nine goals. A price of 3.25, therefore, looks long for another home win.
An Everton, Coventry, United treble pays out at odds of almost 30/1.
