Arsenal Vs Tottenham Hotspur
For the 198th time, Arsenal and Tottenham meet for the North London Derby on Sunday.
Arsenal come into the match with a four-point lead at the top of the table over Manchester City.
Mikel Arteta’s men have only suffered one defeat this season and, before the 2-2 draw with Sunderland, had won 12 straight matches.
Tottenham come into the match off the back of a 2-2 draw with Manchester United before the international break.
Thomas Frank’s men have been fortunate to be so high up in the table, given the underlying numbers through 11 matches.
Arsenal have got the better of Tottenham in this rivalry recently, winning the last six meetings in the Premier League.
The Gunners have been virtually unstoppable to start the Premier League season, so it’s going to take a monumental effort for Tottenham to walk away with any points on Sunday.
In this tactical analysis article, we will examine the importance of set pieces in Sunday’s match, the tactics Arsenal will use to break down Spurs low block, and the problems Tottenham has in possession against Arsenal.
Importance Of Set-Pieces
Some say this should be called the “Set Piece Derby” rather than the North London Derby.
Arsenal are the best set-piece team in the Premier League, scoring 10 of their 20 goals directly from set plays.
There are a couple of different routines that Arsenal will use, but the main one is relatively simple.
Arsenal will start with a grouping of players at the back post like this.
From here, one of two things will happen: either they will stay at the back post, where they have a numerical advantage, or those players will make a run across the six-yard box to the near post.
You can see here the first goal they scored against Burnley: everyone stayed at the back post, Declan Rice delivered a perfect ball that was sent back across the six-yard box to Viktor Gyökeres for a tap-in.
Gabriel Magalhães is out injured for the North London Derby, and he will often be the guy around the penalty spot, making a run towards the back post in 1-v-1 situations.
What this means is that it often becomes a wrestling match inside the six-yard box, which is precisely what Arsenal want.
The added benefit of this set-piece routine is that the opposition has to commit so many bodies in the six-yard box that it becomes virtually impossible to effectively counterattack Arsenal from a corner.
The one thing Tottenham was going to improve upon when Thomas Frank was hired was set pieces.
Spurs have allowed only 2 goals this season from set pieces and have the lowest xG per set piece at 0.09.
That said, Tottenham are winning only 44.6% of their aerial duels, which is a big problem against Arsenal.
Tottenham have scored six of their 18 goals directly from set-pieces, using a very similar method to Arsenal.
You can see here against Everton that Tottenham are overloading the back post and making a run across the six-yard box, which allowed Mickey van de Ven to have a free header.
Arsenal actually haven’t been too dominant defending set-pieces because three of the five goals they’ve conceded have come from set plays.
Arsenal Low Block Tactics
Arsenal have used different tactics against low blocks this season, which have been more successful than in years past.
One of those tactics has been through balls.
Because Arsenal have a central creator in Eberechi Eze, they’ve been trying to overload the middle of the pitch more often to play through opponents.
Arsenal have already completed 40 through balls, which is the most in the Premier League.
Last season, Arsenal completed 80 through balls.
With that said, Arsenal have only scored 8 goals from open play in 11 matches.
One other thing outside of central midfield that Arsenal have done to overload the opposition is try to stretch the opposition’s defensive block to isolate Bukayo Saka and Leandro Trossard.
An example here against Crystal Palace, you can see where Arsenal has created two five-man wide overloads and are able to play Trossard in behind.
Arsenal have been more aggressive with passing like this than in years past, which is encouraging, but the output is still not at an elite level.
One of the main problems with Arsenal in the final third is their inability to be effective on crosses.
Viktor Gyökeres is a good target man in the box, but the Gunners have only completed 14 crosses into the penalty area, which is the second-lowest amount in the Premier League.
Tottenham under Thomas Frank has mainly sat in a very compact 5-3-2, but has also played out of a 4-2-3-1 like the one you see below.
They will typically only press high up the pitch if they feel they can turn the opposition over.
Frank’s low block has been successful compared to last season because Tottenham under Ange Postecoglou allowed 1.67 xG per 90 minutes, while this season, that number has dropped to 1.38.
Tottenham Offensive Tactics
Tottenham are really struggling offensively, but you wouldn’t know it by the stats on the surface.
Spurs have scored 18 goals, but only 11 expected goals, which is the highest overperformance in the Premier League.
The issue with Tottenham’s offence can be boiled down to Thomas Frank’s desire for his side to build through the wide areas.
Very rarely do Tottenham try to open up opponents with aggressive passes through the middle of the pitch.
I mentioned how many through balls Arsenal have completed through 11 matches; well, Tottenham have only completed four.
This image against Manchester United is a pretty good example of their ineffectiveness in the final third.
Xavi Simons drifts out wide to create a three-man passing triangle, but there is nobody other than Richarlison, who is doubled, threatening in the middle of the pitch.
Because of this, Tottenham are forced to send in a lot of hopeful crosses that end up going to nobody.
One of the crazier stats this season, in my opinion, is that Mohammed Kudus and Pedro Porro are the top two players in the Premier League in the number of attempted crosses.
Not only do Tottenham have issues in the final third, but they also have many problems in the build-up.
Per MarkStats, Tottenham are losing the ball in dangerous areas at the fourth-highest rate in the Premier League.
The problem boils down to Tottenham not being able to effectively play through the middle of teams.
They will typically set up in a 4-2 base like this, using Guglielmo Vicario as the extra man.
Even when they drop players like Pape Matar Sarr in deep, the ball almost always goes wide to full-back, where they have no choice but to send it long.
Here against Chelsea, Sarr drops deep, passes it wide, but the long ball gets blocked and falls right to João Pedro for a big chance.
Arsenal are one of the best high pressing teams in the world and utilise a hybrid high press that will initially start out as zonal, but once the ball goes wide, they will jump into a man-to-man press to suffocate Tottenham in these wide areas.
In the second meeting last year, Arsenal forced 40 danger zone losses and five high turnovers by consistently pinning Tottenham in these wide areas.
Tottenham are likely to be forced to play direct in this match.
Conclusion
The two goals conceded against Sunderland before the international break were the first goals Arsenal had conceded in a match since September 28th against Newcastle United.
Mikel Arteta’s side are definitely a class above Tottenham right now tactically.
Still, ultimately, this match is going to come down to how effectively they can break down Thomas Frank’s low block.
I would imagine Arsenal will control the majority of possession in this match, which means Tottenham will play very direct to avoid Arsenal getting easy transition opportunities off high turnovers.
As good as Arsenal have been this season, scoring only eight goals from open play is a concern and highlights that there is still room for improvement for Mikel Arteta’s side.
In the end, this match is more than likely going to come down to who wins the most duels or who is the more effective team on set-pieces.
Arsenal continue to score week after week from corners, but Tottenham has been outstanding at defending against them this season.
The flip side is that Tottenham’s best chances in this match are likely going to come from the few corners they get.
It should be an entertaining tactical battle between Mikel Arteta and Thomas Frank, but our Arsenal Vs Spurs prediction is that the Gunners really should be walking away with three points on Sunday.
