Liverpool will almost certainly be in next season’s UEFA Champions League mix (with only mathematics preventing that from being a definite) and look highly likely to be joined by Arsenal.
However, the race to secure the final two guaranteed places (and potentially any additional spots, should England maintain its strong UEFA club coefficient ranking) in the competition is still very much open.
At the time of writing, there are as many as eight sides who could still realistically finish inside the Premier League’s top four, and it has been impossible to predict which way things will go.
With that in mind, this data analysis will seek to provide some answers about which teams might have a chance to break into the Champions League and which could fall short.
The analysis will examine each team currently ranked between third and 10th in the Premier League standings and break down their key data from the season.
It will also highlight one member of their squad who could prove intrinsic to their hopes and ambitions over the coming months.
Nottingham Forest
The team currently best-placed to join the two frontrunners is Nottingham Forest, who have enjoyed a stellar campaign and who will arguably be a strong contender for Team of the Season.
Under Nuno Espírito Santo, their transformation from relegation battlers to European candidates has been, at times, nothing short of wondrous.
They would be worthy Champions League contenders if they maintained their current placing.
Nottingham Forest Attacking Metrics 2024/2025
Looking at their attacking statistics, it is easy to see why Forest has proven such tough opposition.
As this graphic shows, they have outperformed the league average for goals and assists (registering 1.52 and 0.87 per game, respectively) and are a side that has sometimes proven uncontainable when they have got onto the front foot.
That feat is particularly notable because it has come without them rising above the average mark for shots, key passes, or touches in the opposing penalty area.
In short, whilst they have not accessed promising positions in advanced spaces as often as others have, Espírito Santo’s players have been clinical when opportunities have come their way.
Nottingham Forest Defending Metrics 2024/2025
However, while their attacking play has been mightily impressive, Nottingham Forest has really excelled on the defensive side.
It is where Espírito Santo has really spent time developing his team’s play. He stresses time and time again that keeping a clean sheet is his priority, and the team always looks to build from there.
That mentality is apparent when breaking down their defensive statistics in this graphic, and once again, it comes across as how efficient they are.
As can be seen, they don’t tend to engage in as many defensive or aerial battles as other teams do, but they make sure they win the ones they do have.
At the same time, they sit above the league average for interceptions and overall defensive actions made, which highlights their determination to get back into position and be tough to break down, as well as their ability to take the game to their opponents when they can. It is certainly proving to be a worthwhile strategy for them.
Nikola Milenković Statistics 2024/2025
One player who has been paramount to that solidity, and who will continue to be as the campaign nears its endpoint, is Nikola Milenković.
The Serbia international joined from Fiorentina last season and has been nothing short of a revelation in the Premier League. He formed a strong partnership with Murillo, which has given Nottingham Forest a platform on which they can build so much of their game.
When looking at his individual statistics, this strength at the back is stark, with him sitting particularly high in percentile terms for aerial duels won.
He might not win as many defensive duels, but in both cases, he succeeds in more than he competes in, which, in that sense, reflects Nottingham Forest’s desire to be tough and work hard whenever they are out of possession.
His aerial prowess has also been shown in other ways, such as his threat at set-pieces.
That, too, is reflected in the graphic, with him having a high percentile number of goal contributions.
Therefore, he has proven to be a useful player for the East Midlands side, both in attack and defence, and he will continue to be so as they look to finish the season well and secure a place in the Champions League next time out.
Chelsea
Chelsea is currently in fourth place, providing the target for those behind them to aspire to reach.
Enzo Maresca’s side has encountered mixed form this season as they have continually adapted to his tactical principles.
There have been periods of strong form and others in which they have struggled to put points on the board.
When considering that they have incurred potentially damaging results like the 1-0 defeat to Arsenal at the weekend and yet still have a chance of returning to Europe’s premier competition for the first time since 2022/23, there is reason for them to be confident that they could finally be on the right path.
Chelsea Attacking Metrics 2024/2025
Their attacking metrics support the progress that they have shown at times.
In this graphic, it is apparent that they have scored higher figures than the league average across the board and have proven tough to play against at times.
In particular, their higher goals per game number than Nottingham Forest (1.63 compared to 1.52) shows that they are also capable of testing opponents at the top of their game.
There will be plenty of arguing that Chelsea perhaps doesn’t score as often as others do, and there is some truth to that.
However, that aside, the overall picture from an attacking point of view does appear to be positive.
Chelsea Defending Metrics 2024/2025
Though things are not quite so rosy for their defensive play, this could hinder them in the long run.
What particularly concerns the Chelsea faithful is that they rank well below the league average for defensive actions and interceptions, which implies that they are not as secure as other teams.
As a result, their desire to score more goals carries some weight, with them almost needing to outscore their opponents to get points on the board.
This has led to them fighting for wins at times and committing slightly more fouls per game than others in the league.
Therefore, whilst they are in the top four and have the tools they need to stay there, what they do out of possession needs to be the focus of their efforts if they are to remain in their current position.
Enzo Fernández Statistics 2024/2025
In addition to the teamwork that needs to be on show in Chelsea’s matches, they will also need their star names to turn up and to ensure that they maximise what they can from each outing.
With that in mind, Enzo Fernández will be vital for them to keep fit over the coming run of matches.
While he has endured a slow start to his career at Stamford Bridge, this season has seen him look more like the player Benfica fans have become used to seeing.
He constantly dictates play and shifts the ball into areas where his teammates can best use it.
This graphic highlights this, with the Argentina midfielder inside the top band for dangerous passes made.
At the same time, he also possesses above-average rankings for received passes and progressive passes, which reflects how he has become his team’s key link between the lines.
However, his game has evolved this season, and he is no longer just a conduit for moving the ball around the field.
Instead, he has been afforded more freedom to break into forward areas and to offer an additional offensive threat.
This, too, is shown in his statistics, with him sitting inside the top percentile band for touches in the opposing penalty area and in the top two bands for goal contributions per game.
Therefore, he has added new aspects to his play, making him someone that Chelsea would struggle to operate the same way without.
Manchester City
At this moment, fifth place in the Premier League would only secure a place in the Europa League next season.
However, as referenced at the beginning of the analysis, if England were to maintain their position at the top of the UEFA club coefficient standings, it could be enough to qualify for the Champions League.
Manchester City will certainly hope that does become the case.
They are struggling for form and look a shadow of the side that lifted the Premier League trophy in the last four campaigns.
At the time of writing, Man City are behind Chelsea by a single point and are not out of the race by a long shot.
However, they will undoubtedly need to work hard to finish above them and end a disappointing campaign on a high note.
Manchester City Attacking Metrics 2024/2025
When looking at their attacking statistics, there doesn’t appear to be too much wrong with what Pep Guardiola’s side has been doing.
They sit above the league average in all statistics, and the fact that they have a higher number of touches inside the opposing penalty area per game suggests that they are still making the right movements and getting into areas from which they can test their opposition.
However, when drilling down into this graphic, it becomes clear that their lowest statistics are for key passes, goals, and assists.
Therefore, they are making the runs into dangerous areas but are not then finding those players (with Erling Haaland cutting a frustrated figure in some matches this season).
As a consequence, their overall end product has been found wanting.
Manchester City Defending Metrics 2024/2025
The other issue that has blighted their campaign has been their poor defensive play at times.
As this graphic shows, they sit a long way below the league average for defensive actions made and interceptions, as well as for recoveries.
Therefore, they have been leaving themselves far too open and exposed at times.
They have been competing in duels and have won a significant number of them, which shows that they are still capable of being tough to beat.
However, their inability to track back and make themselves solid on more occasions has certainly been costing them, and it will continue to do so if they don’t address it by the end of the season.
Omar Marmoush Statistics 2024/2025
To their credit, this is something that Guardiola and the club recognised ahead of the January transfer window, with Manchester City spending big in order to bolster their ranks.
Out of those who did arrive at the Etihad Stadium, the player who has arguably made the biggest impact so far has been Omar Marmoush, who joined after impressing in the Bundesliga for Eintracht Frankfurt.
The Egypt forward has, in many ways, filled the gap left by Julián Alvarez’s departure to Atlético Madrid last summer.
He is capable of leading the line but also of dropping back to get on the ball and to involve himself in build-up play.
That is reflected in his percentile statistics, which clearly show how he ranks highly for goal contributions and shots on goal per game and also across the board when it comes to passing the ball around the field.
In short, since his arrival, he has added a new dimension to Manchester City’s attacking play and provided them with new ways of testing their opponents.
Keeping him fit will be a non-negotiable if they are to edge into the Premier League’s top four.
Newcastle United
Whilst they are now guaranteed a place in the Europa League, at least due to their outstanding Carabao Cup victory against Liverpool in the weekend’s final, Newcastle United will not settle for that and can instead be backed to seek an upgrade.
It is not entirely out of the question that they could achieve that either.
They are only a point behind Manchester City and two behind Chelsea and look a better overall package than either at this moment in time.
Crucially, they also have a game in hand over those around them.
Newcastle United Attacking Metrics 2024/2025
When looking at their attacking statistics, it becomes immediately obvious as to what has led to that, with scoring and creating goals being their biggest strengths.
This has been in no small part to the form of Alexander Isak, who currently sits third in the Premier League’s goal standings after netting 19 times to date.
However, other factors have contributed to their ability to fashion opportunities, allowing them to mix up their tactics when necessary.
In some games, this has seen them use Isak’s natural pace in wider positions. At the same time, in other matches, they have relied on more orthodox players in those roles, and the Sweden forward has been utilised in his more familiar central role.
In some matches, they have used more transitional passing sequences; in others, they have adopted a counter-attacking, long-ball strategy.
In short, Eddie Howe’s side has been difficult to set up against at times. It has operated with an inherent unpredictability throughout the campaign, which is why they are currently in such a good position to challenge for a place in the Champions League once again.
Newcastle United Defending Metrics 2024/2025
That attacking play has been matched by their defensive capabilities, too, with the fact that they have formed a rudimentary 4-4-2 shape as soon as they have lost the ball, displaying the understanding that each player once again has to play their role in the team.
This graphic is reflected by their ranking around the league average for recoveries.
What is also worth noting is that they don’t make as many fouls as other outfits in the Premier League do.
This is partly due to them not engaging in as many defensive actions but also down to them knowing when to show patience and when to bite and attempt to regain the ball.
Therefore, again, there is a lot to like about Newcastle at this moment in time, and there are certainly plenty of reasons for the St. James’ Park fans to harbour strong hopes of enjoying more Champions League nights next season.
Jacob Murphy Statistics 2024/2025
When looking at a player that Newcastle can’t afford to be without between now and the end of the campaign, Isak is certainly someone who fits that bill.
However, it has already been mentioned that Howe’s team strongly relies on their ability to shift the ball into wider areas before bringing it back infield, which means that their wingers will play just as big a role as the campaign goes on.
Jacob Murphy has proven to be very adept at this, and his efforts often go under the radar compared to those of Isak and Anthony Gordon.
Nevertheless, as his percentile statistics show, he has contributed to plenty of positive moments for his team and has created a number of goals.
He has also received and passed the ball plenty of times and so has a key role in other forms of build-up play.
Whilst he might not be the name that most people would turn to, he certainly brings a balance to the team that will be critical if Newcastle are to break into the top four.
Brighton and Hove Albion
If Newcastle is considered a strong top-four contender, then another side that absolutely has to be is Brighton & Hove Albion.
Fabian Hürzeler’s side sits level on points with the former and are behind them on goal difference alone, so they, too, are still in with a good chance of reaching the Champions League.
Brighton & Hove Albion Attacking Metrics 2024/2025
Under the former St. Pauli coach, Brighton became known for their exciting style of play, which prioritises possession and fast-paced transitions and is based around scoring goals rather than keeping clean sheets.
As a result, it perhaps comes as no surprise that they have averaged more touches inside their opponents’ penalty area and more goals per game than the league average, with them constantly pushing numbers up the pitch and committing to their attacks.
This has been aided by the fact that they have a vast number of players capable of creating and scoring goals, which is why they have also registered more shots on goal per game than the league average.
Brighton & Hove Albion Defending Metrics 2024/2025
This is not to say that they have disregarded the need to be solid at the back, though.
In fact, there has been plenty to admire about what they have done without the ball, too.
As can be seen in this graphic, they are around the league average for aerial duels, defensive duels, defensive actions, and interceptions per game, while they are slightly above it for recoveries made.
Therefore, while they are a side that likes to pour numbers up the field whenever they get onto the front foot, they have also added an element of defensive toughness at the back.
This was often lacking under former head coach Roberto De Zerbi, which led to some criticism of his style of play.
However, Brighton have taken a step forward under his successor and have worked hard on improving what had previously been letting them down.
Pervis Estupiñán Statistics 2024/2025
That desire to attack and defend with equal ability is epitomised particularly by players like Pervis Estupiñán, who has been an unsung hero at times for Brighton and yet has been a mainstay in the side regardless of who has been at the helm.
His pace and desire to create goals and score them have been trademarks of his play throughout his career.
The fact that he can operate as either a full-back or a wing-back means there is a lot to like about what he brings to the table.
His percentile statistics reflect that tactical versatility, with Estupiñán sitting among the top two bands for shots on goal per game and passing accuracy while also ranking highly for defensive aspects of his play.
In particular, his aerial ability cannot be doubted, with him comparing favourably to other left-backs in Tier 1 leagues for aerial duels competed in and won per game.
Therefore, whilst the likes of Kaoru Mitoma and Yankuba Minteh have been key threats from the wing and Georginio Rutter has offered a mobile attacking presence, there is no doubt that having players like Estupiñán behind them has been vital in allowing Brighton to be so free-flowing.
This makes the Ecuador international such a key player for them and someone they can’t afford to be without.
Fulham
Looking beyond Brighton, it becomes more of a case of teams having a mathematical possibility of breaking into the top four (or five) but with less chance of actually doing so.
Instead, teams in eighth to 10th place in the Premier League may consider the Europa League and Europa Conference League as more realistic targets.
Fulham is the team currently at the summit of this mini-league, and their perhaps more ordinary performance compared to others already mentioned in this analysis has likely led to their not being closer to the top four at this stage of the season.
Fulham Attacking Metrics 2024/2025
This is nothing against them as a team, as they do have some outstanding players who are capable of sprinkling magic on their day.
Instead, it is more of a comment on their ability to get results without offering too much in the way of excitement for those watching on.
This is particularly true when it comes to their attacking play, with them sitting around the league average mark for goals scored per game and expected goals (xG).
This suggests that they are not a side expected to score many, and they live up to that, with them netting three or more goals in just three of their league outings this season.
This is not to say that they don’t offer much in the way of offensive threat, with them ranking higher than others for key passes and shots on goal.
Instead, it simply reflects upon the fact that their style seems to be to get the job done and get the points in the bag without being too spectacular.
Fulham Defending Metrics 2024/2025
That theme continues when looking at their defensive metrics.
They are once again around the average mark for most aspects of their play except for interceptions and defensive contributions made per game, where they are marginally behind.
In short, they are not the most solid team out of possession and do hand their opponents some chances to break them down at times.
This could count against them in the long run and could be what eliminates them from Champions League contention.
However, it is once again a case of playing well, getting results, and prioritising tidiness over excitement, which will be positive as they look to secure a place in some form of European competition next season.
Alex Iwobi Statistics 2024/2025
As mentioned, though, there are individual players in their ranks capable of injecting quality when they need it.
One player who fits that profile is undoubtedly Alex Iwobi, who often goes unnoticed in Marco Silva’s side but who has so often provided a goal just when they have been in need of a player to take control of proceedings.
The 1-1 draw at Everton back in October springs to mind with regards to that.
However, there is more to Iwobi’s game that makes him such a key player for Fulham.
This graphic indicates that he has strong percentile rankings for received passes, dangerous passes, and progressive passes made per game.
Therefore, he is someone who can be relied upon to get into areas where he can make things happen, connecting the dots where required, and those are the things that help teams over the line.
With that in mind, Iwobi might not score the most goals or offer the biggest attacking threat, but he is someone that Fulham will want to keep fit if they are to defy the odds and sneak into the top four.
Aston Villa
Aston Villa is the second team in this small group with an outside chance of making the top four.
They have enjoyed a positive campaign in league and cup and are still in with a chance of lifting silverware at the end of it.
Whilst they are currently four points behind Chelsea and so only have a slim chance of edging past them, it is worth remembering that they are still in this season’s Champions League edition and could still have a chance of making next year’s entry list, too, albeit through an alternative route.
Aston Villa Attacking Metrics 2024/2025
Their attacking statistics, which show that they are behind the average mark in most aspects of their play, highlight clearly why they are perhaps behind others in the Premier League table.
Considering that they have scored the fewest goals in the top 10, with just 41 to their name so far, it is apparent that they perhaps don’t carry the same overall goal threat as those in front of them.
For that reason, returning to the top four is growing harder for them by the week.
Aston Villa Defending Metrics 2024/2025
Things do not get much better when breaking down their defensive statistics.
They are well below the league average in recoveries, interceptions, and defensive actions made per game.
Therefore, they are not scoring as much and conceding more, and it will not shock many to learn, given this, that they are the only side in the top half of the Premier League with a negative goal difference (of -4).
If they are to make it into the top four this season and repeat the feat they achieved last time out, they do appear to have a lot to improve on.
However, they should mention that they have been juggling four competitions this season and will continue to have midweek games for as long as their current European adventure extends.
That could count against them compared to others who don’t have that to think about or are perhaps more used to it.
Youri Tielemans Statistics 2024/2025
This is not to say that Aston Villa are completely out of the running, though, as is the story with every team included in this analysis.
They, too, have plenty of players capable of adding quality to their play when needed, and one of those capable of providing it is Youri Tielemans.
The Belgium midfielder has been a little unconvincing at times since moving across the Midland divide from Leicester City. Still, this season, he has really stepped his game up and given Unai Emery’s team a significant central third presence.
As his percentile statistics indicate, he makes a high number of dribbles and dangerous passes per game, comfortably within the upper two bands for the latter.
He might not rank as favourably regarding overall passing accuracy, but that is mitigated by the fact that he can simply carry the ball forward if necessary.
Therefore, he can adapt to different circumstances when required.
It is also worth noting that he has been just as effective a player out of possession, with him ranking highly in percentile terms for aerial duels won.
When considering that he doesn’t compete in that many compared to others in his position, it highlights once again how important he is to everything Aston Villa does and will continue to do during the final stages of the campaign.
Bournemouth
The last team to be considered is Bournemouth, which has been another of the league’s surprise packages this season.
Manager Andoni Iraola endured a slow start to his tenure last time out as he tried to get his philosophy across to his players, but some excellent summer recruitment has helped to make that transition a success, and they now look a threat whenever they step out onto the field.
They might not have as much of a chance as those above them to reach the Champions League, but European competition of some form is certainly a possibility and would be a just reward for their efforts over the last months.
Bournemouth Attacking Metrics 2024/2025
Bournemouth has thrived in attack, ranking highly for goals scored per game but above average for all aspects of their play.
This reflects the many ways they break teams down, and the fact that they have different types of players in their squad has also contributed to their being so tough to keep out.
When recalling some of those currently above them in the league standings, it is apparent just how much more effective the Dorset club are as an attacking force at this moment in time.
That will give them a lot of confidence that they can feature in Europe next season.
Bournemouth Defending Metrics 2024/2025
That offensive strength has been matched by their defending, with the likes of Dean Huijsen coming in and significantly improving their ability to be organised and to keep teams out.
As these statistics show, Iraola’s side sit above the league average mark for several aspects, such as defensive actions and interceptions, which shows how they want to take the game to their opponents whenever they can.
The fact that they also rank above the league average for fouls conceded might be of concern, and no doubt giving teams chances to break them down cheaply won’t help their cause when it comes to getting the points they need to overtake those above them.
However, there is plenty to like about their front-footed mentality, which has led to plenty of admiring glances in their direction as each week passes.
Justin Kluivert Statistics 2024/2025
If there is one player who has really led from the front for Bournemouth this season, it has been Justin Kluivert.
The Netherlands forward has thrived in a free-roaming role this season and has really made the most of it, with him currently sitting on 12 goals for the campaign and joint-10th in the goal standings.
When looking at his statistics, though, it becomes apparent that there are other things that have made him such an integral part of the Bournemouth team.
His passing might not rank as highly in percentile terms as others in Tier 1 leagues (largely because he is already in areas where he can turn and shoot or set up a chance for another player), but he also offers a defensive presence.
This is highlighted by him competing in plenty of defensive and aerial battles. So he really typifies the front-footed approach that Iraola has sought to instil into his squad.
Conclusion
In conclusion, this data analysis has sought to drill deeper into the race for the Champions League positions in the Premier League.
The analysis has looked, in turn, at each of the teams currently placed between third and 10th in the table. It has highlighted the key data that could give them a strong chance of making it into the top four (or five, if England is granted an additional place by UEFA), an outside chance of doing so or of looking more realistically at either the Europa League or the Europa Conference League.
The exciting thing is that none of these teams has yet been mathematically eliminated from the race, and all have an opportunity to still finish in the Champions League places.
Others could also still enter the race. Brentford is only three points behind Bournemouth, so anything could still happen.
It is going to be a thrilling run-in over the coming months, and it will be fascinating to see who does achieve their dream of featuring in Europe’s top tier next season and who ultimately misses out.
