As the Premier League season approaches its eagerly anticipated finale, we have an incredibly intriguing battle at both ends of the table.
Whilst English giants fight for the title, former European champions Nottingham Forest are one of the sides desperate to maintain their top-flight status.
They are eerily close to the drop zone for their liking.
Now led by Nuno Espírito Santo, Forest has sought to build upon a pragmatic and resolute defensive structure while allowing its dynamic attacking quartet to flourish.
One of Nottingham Forest’s most influential players this season has been the unlikely figure of Murillo Santiago Costa dos Santos, the 21-year-old central defender acquired from Corinthians in the summer window.
Having invested around €12m in an absolute unknown quantity due to his lack of senior footballing experience, the Brazilian has been a prominent defensive force in an otherwise frustrating campaign.
In many ways, Murillo has transformed into a walking highlight reel, with his ambitious play and surprising progressive nature capturing the attention of fans around the world.
With an array of elite clubs reportedly incredibly impressed by his style of play and technical prowess, it would be fair to assume that his time in Nottingham may potentially draw to a close with a busy summer transfer window on the horizon.
This tactical analysis and Murillo scout report will begin to delve into some of Murillo’s game’s aspects that have garnered so much attention, highlighting his tactical deployment and impact in all three-thirds of the pitch.
Our analysis will examine how Murillo’s style of play has adapted so quickly to the Premier League, effectively harnessing his side’s tactics and rapidly emerging as an incredible leader when his team needs him the most.
Murillo Physical profile
Despite only recently embarking on his senior football career, Murillo’s style of play has brought with him all of the qualities that made him so beloved in Brazil.
Corinthians are ruing his departure, and Nottingham Forest is growing stronger with his presence.
Murillo’s overall footballing qualities make him a comfortable left-sided central defender, the most prevalent member of Forest’s defensive line in Espírito Santo’s 4-2-3-1 setup.
His defensive positioning has benefited from an incredibly supportive double pivot.
The likes of Ryan Yates and Danilo drop into the defensive line when out of possession, showing glimpses of their previous tactical setup in a back five under Steve Cooper.
Murillo also maintains the ability to drift further wide as the true LCB, often comfortable in a back 3 when left-back Toffolo or Aina advances along the wing to double up in the attacking third with Hudson-Odoi.
However, his physical profile may come as a surprise when comparing the Brazilian to some of the other leading central defenders in Europe’s top leagues.
He boasts an atypical stature, standing at around 5’10”, but making up for a vertical deficiency with his incredible power and strength.
In fact, Murillo’s stocky build can be deceiving in many ways, as he also maintains impressive covering speed and the mobility to fly around the pitch.
Nottingham Forest defensive structure
Throughout his tenure at Premier League clubs, it has been evident that Forest boss Espíritio Santo has prioritised the low-block defensive style in an attempt to soak up pressure and be a significant threat on the counter.
When things looked bleak in their previous campaign, then-manager Steve Cooper also significantly shifted towards a more conservative style of play, which prioritised being more defensively sound—a decision that kept them up despite all odds.
Their conservative but frustrating defending is highlighted by their PPDA in the Premier League this season, a league-lowest 17.2, implying they are more than comfortable avoiding a high press to instead return to a compact defensive shape.
In fact, a credit to their style of defending is that Forest have conceded the fewest expected goals from counterattacks this season, giving up only 0.05 xG per 90 minutes.
The inception of Murillo has coincided with Forest’s defensive improvement this season, but things still haven’t been perfect—hence their battle at the bottom.
Nottingham Forest boasts a sixth-best non-penalty xG conceded figure of 1.46 xG per 90, along with a seventh-best non-penalty xG conceded per shot with 0.11 xG.
However, the most damning statistic would have to be the fact that they have still managed to concede 58 goals from just 42.4 xG — a massive underperformance that has left them chasing games and dangerously close to relegation.
Murillo’s defensive style differs depending on the tactical setup deployed around him, making him a valuable asset who can be moulded at such a young age.
While starting his career at Corinthians, we saw Murillo be much more aggressive and proactive in his defending, often breaking the lines to initiate duels within the middle third to regain higher and launch the counter.
He recorded the most tackles in the centre of the pitch (0.70 per 90).
Whereas in the Premier League, instances where he has vacated the defensive line and been over-aggressive have led to areas of weakness for the opposition to exploit in behind.
Therefore, Forest looks to depend upon a collective display of resilience and withstanding an attacking onslaught to frustrate the opposition.
It has been impressive to witness the defensive intelligence that Murillo holds in his first full season of professional football.
His defensive nous was on display in their fixture against West Ham, when he was able to negate a significant threat from Antonio, who was bearing down on the Forest goal in a one-on-one situation with the Brazilian.
Murillo stood his ground and identified the striker’s tendency to shift inside on his favoured right foot. He hooked the ball away from danger and stifled any serious opportunity for the away side to score.
Having recorded 5.97 clearances per 90 in the Premier League (97th percentile), Forest is incredibly reliant on Murillo as their defensive stalwart.
One area for development would have to be his ability to win aerial duels, a huge factor in why Forest have been shipping goals this season.
Whilst Murillo doesn’t shoulder the entirety of the blame, Forest have conceded a whopping 21 league goals from set pieces, in spite of the fact that they have only allowed 11.36 xG from those scenarios.
In a team lacking verticality across the defensive line, Murillo has won just 45.6% of his aerial duels this season, placing him in the company of Lisandro Martinez for one of the league’s most underperforming central defenders in that department.
However, like Martinez, Murillo’s shortcomings in the air are more than compensated for by his impressive talent with the ball at his feet.
Murillo’s Influence in the Attacking Phase
Aside from his solid defending, Murillo excels in his progressive play and comfort level with the ball at his feet.
Like many of the elite modern-day central defenders we witness across Europe, Murillo has the ability to switch the field of play in an instant, using exceptional passing to get his team out of danger.
When receiving the ball in the initial phase of play, we often see Murillo distributing long passes, either a straight-hit pass towards the left channel or utilising diagonal long balls to find runners behind.
In their match against Tottenham, Murillo perfectly picks out Ola Aina high on the left flank, receives the ball in stride, and is able to break into the opposition’s penalty area.
Murillo can remain progressive despite his team’s negative style with his 10.52 long passes attempted per game, which often go hand in hand with his 0.38 passes into the penalty area per match (74th percentile).
One thing that makes Murillo unique is that, despite playing in central defence, he displays Brazilian flair and impressive control when dribbling.
When not breaking the lines with his distribution, Murillo is often driving into space and utilising his expert ball-carrying, drawing defensive attention and creating advantageous passing lanes.
Murillo ranks within the 97th and 96th percentile for attempted take-ons and successful take-ons, respectively, highlighting his unnerving attitude towards attacking and how profitable it can be when he surges forward.
In their cup match against Bristol City, Murillo’s direct running influenced the offensive positioning of his Forest teammates.
Left-back Toffolo inverted while Hudson Odoi maintained his width, giving his side an inventive alternative method of breaking down the opposition.
Murillo’s ball-carrying complements his team’s most profitable method of attack.
He uses his explosive movement to evade pressure and get his team up the pitch quickly.
Nottingham Forest has the third-greatest direct speed of attack in the Premier League (1.96m/s) this season, with their greatest attacking success coming from 0.19 xG from counterattacks per 90.
It was imperative for Murillo to quickly shift the ball away from the Newcastle forwards and spark a quick transition up the pitch when they faced off in the Premier League, highlighting incredible maturity and comfort when having to bypass the relentless high press associated with England’s elite.
Conclusion
Even though his career in Europe is only in its infancy, Murillo’s impact upon the Premier League has left clubs incredibly excited about the potential of the young Brazilian.
While still raw at times, Murillo’s well-rounded nature makes him stand out as a highly adaptable and versatile asset.
Should Nottingham Forest drop into the Championship, it would be clear that the defender’s talents would not be wasted in the second tier, with UEFA Champions League clubs eyeing a cut-price deal for a player who has all the hallmarks of a world-class defender.
