Leicester City: Finding The Heir To Jamie Vardy’s Throne – Data Analysis

The story of Jamie Vardy is well-documented, and at the age of 33, he claimed the Premier League Golden Boot by scoring 23 goals in the 2019/20 campaign.

Due to his age, the discussion has arisen regarding a potential decline in his ability, and as a result, the search for a future replacement.

For these reasons, it would be worthwhile to scout the market for a young striker who could come in, learn from Vardy, and potentially take over his role within a season or two.

While last season was not his best in terms of goal-scoring (this came in their title-winning campaign), he improved upon his previous couple of seasons in almost every conceivable way.

His conversion rate went up from 19.7% last season to 22.9% this season, alongside an improvement in his non-penalty goals per 90, which went up from 0.46 to 0.56.

Vardy has clearly benefitted from being coached by Brendan Rodgers, now scoring 33 in 44 games under the Northern Irish coach.

To replace Vardy, we must begin to understand where he excels.

Of course, he is a clinical finisher, extremely capable of positioning himself in the right spaces to call for a pass and take a shot on goal.

Additionally, he is a remarkably creative for a centre-forward and although not as energetic as he used to be, he is a decent presser of the ball.

This data analysis will help us to highlight, through the use of data and statistics, the heir to Vardy’s throne at Leicester City.

Our dataset consists of players who have a good proportion of minutes as a centre-forward, aged 23 or under, are valued at £50m or under, have accumulated at least 500 minutes in the league (in Europe’s top five leagues, plus Liga NOS, Jupiler Pro League, Eredivisie, and the Championship) and have not already moved clubs this summer.

This data analysis can be used to help identify players who are competent enough to deliver output instantly, while also garnering potential to grow into a suitable replacement for Vardy at Leicester City.

At the end of the analysis, we will highlight the six players who could fit the Vardy mould, having explored statistics concerning multiple key outputs that we have identified as Vardy’s key characteristics.

Jamie Vardy Finishing ability

The primary and most obvious feature of Vardy’s game is his clinical nature in front of goal.

He has maintained a conversion rate of around 20% over the past few seasons, which is indicative of his ability to convert his chances at an elite level.

The first section of this data analysis displays our sample across two metrics that assess their capability to complete the chances they have either created for themselves or have been created by others.

xG per 90 demonstrates the quality of chances a striker is finding themselves getting into per game, whilst conversion rate divides the number of goals by the number of shots, which displays how many opportunities a player needs to score a goal on average.

Englishman Eddie Nketiah of Arsenal leads the way for xG per 90 with 0.92.

He also has an excellent 31.25% conversion rate.

Just reaching the minutes threshold with 574 minutes in the Championship for Leeds United, the 21-year-old statistically stands out in our dataset.

Leading the way for conversion rate is William Togui with 36%.

Evidently, the Ivorian does not require many opportunities to convert a shot into a goal, aiding Mechelen in propelling up the table in the 2019/20 season.

He also produces 0.43 xg per 90, which ranks above average.

A player who ranks pretty high in both statistics is Myron Boadu.

The 19-year-old Dutchman combines a 26.42% conversion rate with an xG per 90 of 0.58.

Despite his age, Boadu has ranked as one of the best finishers in the Eredivisie this past season.

Another homegrown player who ranks highly in one of these metrics is Josh Maja.

The 21-year-old is another player who has had limited minutes (735 minutes in the 2019/20 season), but he made the most of his limited appearances, with a 33.33% conversion rate and an average 0.32 xG per 90.

Finally, one player who has split their fan-base in two with his performances is David Okereke.

The Nigerian went through what some have expressed as a ‘purple-patch’ at the start of the season and then gradually fell off from there.

Even with these comments, Okereke managed a 25.71% conversion rate and a very solid 0.53 xG per 90.

Jamie Vardy Creativity in the penalty area

Vardy is a forward who poses a threat in the final third, thanks to his passing as well as his finishing.

Although his primary tool in the final third is his finishing, under Rodgers he has rediscovered the creative spark that saw him rack up eight assists in the 2014/15 Premier League season.

The following offensive metrics aim to qualify our sample’s ability through an analysis of touches in the opposition’s box per 90 and xa per 90.

This section will help us identify individuals who have a good proportion of touches in the opposition’s penalty area and assess their creativity with these limited touches, as well as their ability to place shots on goal accurately.

The player who leads the way in touches per 90 in the box is returning candidate Eddie Nketiah, with 9.24, far and away the best in our dataset.

He also notches up an xA per 90 value of 0.11, which ranks as above average.

Alternatively, the player who leads the way for xA is Facundo Colidio, with 0.33 per 90.

Recently, he extended his loan period at Sint-Truiden from Inter Milan to last the duration of the 2020/21 season after impressing in his first campaign within Belgium.

He has 4.87 touches in box per 90, which ranks as a high figure.

Next up we have another forward impressing in Belgium, Emmanuel Dennis.

The Club Brugge player managed the second most touches in the box, with 6.22 per 90, which he used to produce 0.1 xa per 90, an average within our dataset, but not particularly noteworthy in general.

Another player who ranks highly in both regards is Dutch international Donyell Malen.

The 21-year-old has an impressive 5.76 touches in box per 90 and a good value of 0.14 xA per 90, in addition to his goalscoring exploits at PSV Eindhoven this campaign.

Lastly, Feyenoord forward Luis Sinisterra ranks highly in both metrics.

His 0.21 xA per 90 could be due to his time spent out on the left-wing, while his 4.8 touches in box per 90 are indicative of his high amount of activity in the final third.

Jamie Vardy Pressing intensity

We have now analysed some finishing and creativity data.

Before we shortlist six players who could be the heir to Jamie Vardy’s throne and analyse them in detail, we are going to reveal which strikers are the most effective in pressing and recovering the ball for their sides.

By examining defensive duels and successful defensive actions per 90 minutes, we can gain insight into which players are effective in their defensive endeavours.

Dimitri Oberlin leads the way in both successful defensive actions and defensive duels per 90, with 9.62 and 11.72, respectively.

This is indicative of his use as an energetic presser for his side, demonstrating competence in recovering the ball for his team.

21-year-old Eddie Nketiah yet again returns in this list, ranking second for defensive duels per 90 with 9.4.

The young forward truly impressed in every aspect in the limited minutes that Marcelo Bielsa offered to him.

Additionally, he completed 7.51 defensive actions per 90.

Frenchman Imran Louza deserves a mention here, acting as a false-nine for Nantes in Ligue 1 this season just gone by.

His 7.51 defensive duels and 7.85 successful defensive actions per 90 could have been improved by his game time at central midfield, though.

It would also be worth acknowledging the pressing efforts of Brazilian Matheus Cunha.

As of January, he was plying his trade for German outfit Hertha Berlin. Upon his arrival, he lit up the league with his performances, primarily due to his attacking endeavours.

However, he also ranks remarkably high in his defensive actions, with 6.38 successful defensive actions and 6.62 defensive duels per 90, indicating his energy in his defensive efforts.

Lastly, Charles De Ketelaere, at Club Brugge, had racked up 769 minutes in the league as an 18 or 19-year-old, which is significant for his development at such a young age.

Despite not producing a tremendous amount of goal contributions, his 5.96 defensive duels and 6.52 successful defensive actions per 90 both rank highly amongst our dataset.

Shortlist To Replace Jamie Vardy

After examining the individual performances of every member of the sample across each data metric, I have narrowed it down to the following six individuals, who would realistically be available this summer or next summer for The Foxes (excluding Victor Osimhen and Tammy Abraham).

The darker the green, the higher the score.

Alexander Isak, CF, 21 years old, Real Sociedad

The first entry, Alexander Isak, has had a decent first season at the Basque club, which is becoming notorious for nurturing promising young talents.

Despite being 6’2”, his technical ability is of a reasonable level, and it enables the Swede to improvise in and around the box with fancy flicks or skill moves.

His tendency to drop deep and link midfield play makes him a constant threat to opposition defenders.

When he is in those positions, he can turn with the ball and utilise his blistering pace.

His fluid movement in and around the box, combined with creativity, makes it difficult to anticipate his next step, as evidenced by his 0.49 non-penalty goals per 90 minutes.

His market value is £20m.

Breel Embolo, CF, 23 years old, Borussia Mönchengladbach

Breel Donald Embolo, formerly of FC Basel, a club renowned for its conveyor belt of young talent, has played as backup to both Alassane Pléa and Marcus Thuram this season.

In 1,628 league minutes, the Swiss international has impressed in a whole host of ways. Still, most notably, his positioning in the final third has enabled the 23-year-old to capitalise on numerous goal-scoring opportunities.

He has been utilised across the forward line in his career so far, and we have seen that in his runs this season, where he typically runs into the space, using his electric pace, between the full-back and centre-back, which has helped him produce an xg per 90 of 0.55.

His market value is £14m.

David Okereke, CF, 22 years old, Club Brugge

It was mentioned earlier that Okereke has split the opinions of the Club Brugge fanbase, but statistically, it is hard to see why.

His performances dropped for a few games and did not really get a look-in from that moment onwards, with youngster Youssouph Badji being preferred at the start of the 2020/21 season.

He cost the Belgian club a record €8m.

Initially, he was asked to operate as a false nine by luring opposition defenders away to create space for Brugge’s speedy wingers, Emmanuel Dennis and Krépin Diatta.

This explains his low 4.48 touches in the box per 90 (compared to his teammates), but it also indicates that he took his chances when he had them, producing 0.72 non-penalty goals per 90 at a 25.71% conversion rate.

Clinical.

His market value is £4m.

Eddie Nketiah, CF, 21 years old, Arsenal

The Englishman has had a disrupted season, spending the first half the season unfairly placed on the bench by Bielsa and his coaching staff.

He truly shone in all of our selected metrics, despite playing inconsistent minutes.

Nketiah tends to start high between the central defenders, pushing the defensive line, and then asking for the ball in behind the defence, using his first touch as a layoff to create more space for himself.

In this sense, he is not as selfless as Bielsa would like in his striker (as seen with Patrick Bamford), but this is hypothetically negated by his high potential output, as evidenced by his 0.92 xg per 90.  His market value is £13m.

Halil Dervişoğlu, CF, 20 years old, Brentford

Although a recent winter signing by the Championship club, Halil Dervişoğlu’s meteoric rise through the ranks of the Dutch football leagues is hard to ignore.

Starting this season at 19 years old, he certainly did not perform like this was his first season at the summit of Dutch football.

Primarily, he is a high-level technician who is especially dangerous with the ball at his feet, as evidenced by his 1.83 progressive runs per 90 minutes in the league this term.

At his most dangerous, the 20-year-old is a creative outlet between the lines, in the half-spaces, and around the penalty area, as reflected in his 1.5 chances created per 90 minutes.

His market value is £900,000 (although he was purchased for £3 million).

Myron Boadu, CF, 19 years old, AZ Alkmaar

The 19-year-old has already suffered two long-term injuries in his short career, but Myron Boadu determination to come back and perform at the level he has done is admirable, to say the least.

Technically, he is competent, as he has the ability to score with both feet and exhibits impressive composure in one-on-one situations.

His shot placement is very good, often allowing him to find the corners even when off-balance or under pressure, as evidenced by his 26.42% conversion rate.

He mainly uses his speed when playing off the shoulder of the defender to find space in the penalty area, thanks to his anticipation, and take high-value shots.

His market value is £16m.

Summary

Now we have a shortlist of players who could either act as an understudy to Vardy immediately or be available to join in the next season or two and begin to replace the veteran.

By scouting players aged 23 or under, we have been able to find players who can be moulded into the type of striker that Vardy is, and potentially begin to replicate his output.

We have also highlighted young forwards who excel in our listed attributes, finishing, creativity, and pressing.

Some of these forwards did not make our final shortlist because their skillset did not match Vardy’s, whether due to a low conversion rate, lack of creativity, or other factors.

The discussion regarding replacing Vardy should have been made a little easier through this analysis, which takes a wide lens view of young forwards who could grow into the Vardy mould and hopefully produce on such a consistent basis as the 33-year-old.