If there is one question that has gripped Leeds United fans in the last few weeks, it is who will start for the Yorkshire side in the next fixture? Patrick Bamford or Eddie Nketiah. The topic has picked up so much heat that it has almost taken precedence over the massive expectation of securing automatic promotion to the Premier League with Marcelo Bielsa’s second season in charge. Recent performances have seen Leeds United, a side known for their ultra-offensive philosophy under the Argentine, in the midst of a goal drought. Consequently, the two centre forwards have come under scrutiny.
Bamford has been the regular number nine at the club, leading Bielsa’s attack since last season. His experience and personality has gained the trust of the fans over the years, but he has struggled to find the back of the net despite being fed with chances. Nketiah is the 20-year-old addition to Bielsa’s roster, on loan from Arsenal, after being tussled by rival teams in the previous transfer window. Having a lot of technical abilities and goal-scoring potential, he was brought in with the promise of more game-time with the Championship side but is still adapting on Bielsa’s watch to his rigorous methodology. His goal tally almost matches that of Bamford’s but is yet to prove himself worthy enough to decisively replace Bamford. An idea is to play both, but how practical is it really?
In this scout report, we will examine both players in-depth and investigate how they fit Bielsa’s tactics, comparing their statistics in this tactical analysis. Note that the statistics used in this analysis were collected excluding the previous league fixture against Sheffield Wednesday.
xG overview
First and foremost, let us look at a metric that has become a contemporary cornerstone of quantifying an attacker’s efficiency in front of goal: Expected goals. It is Nketiah who steals the show with an xG of 0.75, edging past Bamford’s xG of 0.61. Despite having played only 430 minutes this season, Nketiah with five goals has been more clinical than Bamford who has not made the most of his chances, scoring four times in 1044 minutes he has played (including the Sheffield Wednesday game).
In 90 minutes, Nketiah also manages 3.4 shots on target, marginally more than Bamford with 3.12. Nketiah has played only two full 90-minute games, both in the EFL Cup, against Salford and Stoke City. Despite having lesser minutes on the pitch as a centre forward, Nketiah averages 5.94 touches in the box per 90 minutes compared to Bamford with 4.36 touches. It makes sense why a large number of Leeds fans prefer to see Nketiah starting over Bamford, especially after he secured the crucial equaliser against Preston North End having come on for Bamford in the 77th minute.
If we compare the shot maps of the two, however, we see a striking similarity in the positions from where the two have scored, most being in the 6-yard box and one in the 18-yard box for both. Bamford has been quite unlucky in front of goal missing some chances with very high xG values on the shots. The away game against Charlton which Leeds lost 1-0, saw both having great opportunities to equalise as we see in the images below but were unable to convert their chances resulting in Bielsa’s side dropping points in a game that was almost entirely played in Charlton’s half.
But from the statistics alone, we can see that Nketiah creates double the number of chances than Bamford and stands out with four times the conversion rate, making him the more reliable option to steer Leeds out of their goalless doldrums.
