xG Gems: The three best centre-forwards in the Damallsvenskan

Scandinavia has been the home of some of football’s best talents in the men’s game. Teams like Ajax and Red Bull Salzburg have been known for producing and procuring the best talent from other nations and develop them into world-class players. FC Nordsjælland, FC Copenhagen, Molde, and Rosenberg have all been responsible for some of the world’s best talent.

Equally, the women teams in Scandinavia have players and teams that have taken the world by storm. Pernille Harder, Magdalena Eriksson, and Maren Mjelde are just three names to make it big in Europe. This data analysis will be a series of articles looking for hidden gems and talent in the Scandinavian leagues who could potentially be transfer targets for American and European clubs. We will start by looking at the Swedish top flight before moving to Norway, Denmark and Finland in later analysis pieces. Our first in the series will be finding the best centre-forwards from Damallsvenskan.

Parameters & Assumptions

For this analysis, we will set a few parameters to create a realistic sample size of players to choose from. We will look at players from the first division with a minimum of 400 minutes across four main comparison metrics using data only from the domestic leagues. The results that you see are using percentile ranks which means that the number you see translates how a player ranks in the league.

Shots per 90 vs Touches in the box per 90

Progressive Runs per 90 vs Forward passes per 90

Shots per 90 vs xG per 90

Dribbles per 90 vs Successful dribbles %

Expected Contribution vs Contribution

These metrics will us find different profile of strikers and help determine who are the leagues best in them. We will come up with a shortlist based on the data and frequency of results. If a player is consistently ranking in the top end of the spectrum then we will consider them.

Shots per 90 vs Touches in the box per 90

The first statistical comparison we are looking at is shots per 90 and touches in the box per 90. This comparison will identify and indicate a striker’s willingness and ability to get in the box and take shots. This doesn’t really tell us about any one particular type of striker but will tell us who is able to get into the right places at the right time and take shots. Once these players have been identified a further analysis of Expected Goals (xG) and goals can be used to conclude their real effectiveness.

The results are quite interesting given the average across both leagues is quite high for these metrics. For each result, we’ll identify four of the best players though in this case there are more. The first player we identified is Anna Anvegård who has averages 4.89 shots per 90 with 7.85 touches in the box per 90. Next, we have is Emily Gielnik who averages 5.09 shots per 90 minutes and 6.94 touches in the box. Stina Blackstenius has figures of 4.79 shots per 90 and 8.75 touches in the box. Pauline Hammarlund is next with 3.79 shots per 90 and 6.61 touches in the box and lastly, we have 31-year-old Frida Skogman. She averages 4.99 shots per 90 and 5.87 touches in the box per 90 minutes.