We are down to four remaining clubs in the MLS Cup playoffs.
The Eastern and Western Conference Finals will take place this Saturday, with the MLS Cup Final scheduled for the following weekend, concluding the season on December 7th.
Going into the penultimate weekend of this year’s post-season, two very different match-ups on both sides of the league’s spectrum will decide the respective conference champions.
In the East, Saturday’s first encounter is a case of never-haves against never-been, with Orlando City hosting the New York Red Bulls at their 25,000+ capacity Inter&Co Stadium in Orlando, Florida.
Although many would have predicted that this fixture would take place in Florida, it was expected to be held 200 miles further south, at the home of Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami.
But after Atlanta United‘s shock upset of the Supporters’ Shield winners, Orlando could have booked their place in a first-ever Conference Final appearance as a franchise after ousting Charlotte over three games in the previous round, which they did with a 1-0 win at home.
Up north, the New York Red Bulls pulled off a surprising sweep of reigning MLS Cup and Leagues Cup champions Columbus Crew before seeing off city rivals New York City FC 2-0 on the road in the Hudson River derby.
They sealed their spot in the last four for the sixth time ever, and they now chase only their second MLS Cup appearance in club history.
NYRB lost in their first trip to the MLS Cup to Columbus Crew in 2008, and it’s been a tale of falling below expectations ever since for one of the league’s biggest markets and franchises.
While both clubs in the East are searching for a maiden MLS Cup title, on the other end of the spectrum, it’s an entirely different story.
In Saturday’s late fixture in Southern California at Dignity Health Sports Park, LA Galaxy and Seattle Sounders will compete in the Western final.
Unlike their Eastern counterparts, these two clubs have had no shortage of domestic success.
Galaxy holds a league record with five MLS Cup titles from nine finals.
At the same time, the Sounders have won two and made four appearances in the fixture in total, interestingly, all of which came after LA Galaxy’s last win in 2014.
The two clubs have plenty of pedigree, and a Western Conference title and a chance to host this year’s MLS Cup will be at stake.
Both sides boast superior regular-season points tallies than Orlando and NYRB.
Also, the aforementioned Dignity Health Sports Park has hosted the season’s final game a record six times.
LA Galaxy will look to clinch the Western title for the seventh time on Saturday night.
Going into these games, several players have stood out across all four sides in their playoff runs to date.
In this scout report, we’ll attempt to pick out one key player from each club and analyze their playoff performances using data analysis ahead of this weekend.
Orlando City: Ramiro Enrique (CF)
Undoubtedly, Orlando City’s standout player and star man is Uruguayan DP Facundo Torres.
But we’ve chosen 23-year-old Argentine striker Ramiro Enrique as the one to watch for this weekend’s Eastern Conference Final.
There are two reasons for that.
Firstly, Enrique is in the hotter form of the two, with five goals and two assists in Orlando’s last nine league games stretching back to late September, while Torres is slightly worse off with four goals and a solitary assist.
Second, and more importantly, is the attention Torres takes away from opposing defences, which opens up spaces for Enrique to exploit.
Enrique is Orlando’s second-highest scorer in 2024 after Torres, showing that he shouldered the responsibility of carrying the attack alongside the Uruguayan more than anyone else on the Lions squad.
However, focusing on just these playoffs, let’s examine some data that shows what Enrique has brought to this team during their run to the Conference Final.
Ramiro Enrique Shots Map – 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs
The above data viz is Enrique’s shot map during the playoffs, highlighting his shot selection and the xG value of his attempts.
With thirteen shots taken in just four games, Enrique averages slightly over three shots per game, with a 0.15 value per shot, which is a solid number.
Almost all of his strikes have come from inside the penalty area, with the odd pop from a long distance.
Most of them have been high-value attempts, as indicated by the larger circles.
His winning goal against Atlanta came from a scramble in the box, where he showed his instincts and desire to score by not giving up on the play.
Orlando will need that if they are to overcome the New York Red Bulls and reach a maiden MLS Cup appearance this weekend.
Ramiro Enrique Heat Map – 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs
Another thing to highlight about Enrique, as shown in his heatmap above, is his all-around game and involvement throughout the field, despite being a centre-forward.
As we can see, although the bulk of Enrique’s activity occurs in the opposition penalty area, the number of pink blocks around the pitch also shows that he brings more to the game than just being a static #9 waiting for his teammates to feed him.
Offensively, Orlando has many moving parts, with constant movement and interchangeable positioning among the front four players in their 4-2-3-1 scheme.
Enrique complements that well and better than Duncan McGuire and Luis Muriel, who are more natural box strikers.
Orlando’s front four, Enrique, Torres, Martín Ojeda, and Iván Angulo, have an average height of 1.72 meters (5’8′), which the Argentine fits in well with compared to McGuire and Muriel’s taller options.
Although they don’t pose a significant aerial threat in open play with this attack, they do present a substantial challenge to opposing teams with their diminutive forwards and quick counters in transitional phases.
And Enrique is the spearhead of the frontline as the central striker.
With him being closest to the goal of the four, one can be pretty sure he will get his chances to bang another one in on Saturday, which could prove to be the biggest goal in Orlando’s short MLS history to date come full-time.
New York Red Bulls: Dylan Nealis (RB/CB)
Of course, Emil Forsberg is the big standout name for New York, but we’ve decided to go with a player who has excelled in all of their playoff games to date in this exciting run for the Red Bulls.
And that player is none other than 26-year-old Dylan Nealis.
Nealis came into the post-season after a suspension served in the final regular season game after a first-career red card at Atlanta on Matchday 33.
Upon his return, after playing all season as a right full-back in a back four, he found himself in a new role as the right-sided centre-back in a three-man defence following a shift of tactics from Sandro Schwarz for the Columbus tie.
What followed was something few could have expected: Nealis being NYRB’s standout player in two of their three playoff wins, which led to a 100% record and a trip to the Conference Final.
He even got the game-winning assist at Columbus, a win that New York has built on game-by-game ever since to get within one win of the MLS Cup Final.
He has been an important factor on and off the ball for Schwarz’s team in this run despite coming into a role he hadn’t played in all season.
Dylan Nealis Defensive Territory Map – 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs
As mentioned earlier in the previous section, Orlando’s smaller offense is one of the most lethal in the league in terms of quick transitional attacks.
New York’s three-man defensive system, deployed in the playoffs, has helped them secure two road clean sheets so far, and they’ll be looking for a third on Saturday to further their cause of winning.
Nealis has been a key figure in that resoluteness in those games, as his defensive territory map above shows.
As one of the wider centre-backs in this system, Nealis is tasked with pushing up when necessary to attempt to win the ball back, which is synonymous with the Red Bull style now worldwide.
He also defends spaces around him well by dropping deeper when necessary.
His map above stretches even into the opposition half, as Nealis has recorded numerous defensive actions across the pitch and a few key interceptions closer to his goal.
Standing at 1.81 metres (5’11’), he outmatches the entire Orlando attack aerially, but the key for the Red Bulls will be whether he can keep up with them at ground level and limit opportunities for them to get in behind him during transitions, especially on the left where he’ll be directly up against Angulo and the overlapping runs of Brazilian full-back Rafael Santos.
Dylan Nealis Progressive Passes Map – 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs
It’s also important to note Nealis’s ball-playing abilities in this role, which he has done a solid job with, as evidenced by his progressive pass map above.
Nealis is naturally a right-back, so carrying the ball forward wasn’t something foreign to him prior to this change of position in the playoffs.
Orlando is a team that prefers to allow the opposition to have the ball and then press higher to win it back before attacking in transition.
Therefore, it will be essential for Nealis and Co. to exercise caution when handling possessions, especially in the back and more vulnerable areas.
Given Nealis’ comfort with the ball at his feet, he may be the one New York uses more to build from the back through wide areas.
However, he will have to be cautious when dealing with Orlando’s inevitable press, as one mistake could cost his side dearly and prolong their wait for a first MLS Cup title, something they’ve been waiting for as a franchise for thirty years now.
Los Angeles Galaxy: Riqui Puig (CM/AM)
With the LA Galaxy, there’s almost no wrong answer regarding picking one key player, especially from their attacking options.
With fifteen goals in just three playoff games, they are the definition of firing on all cylinders at the moment, following convincing victories against Colorado Rapids and Minnesota United.
Although Gabriel Pec, Dejan Joveljić, and Joseph Paintsil all boast a fair claim given their productivity, we’ve decided to highlight Riqui Puig as the standout man for the home side this weekend.
Riqui Puig Touch Map – 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs
With his touch map above, it’s an image that explains why Puig is our choice.
He is the engine of the team, through which attacks run, and almost everything good about Galaxy offensively runs through him at some point.
While Pec and Paintsil are more confined to wider areas where they do plenty of damage to opposing defences, Puig can be found all over the pitch in the free-roaming assignments he has in Greg Vanney’s system.
And given that he has eight goals and seven assists since El Tráfico in mid-September, it’s fair to say that Puig has hit top form at the perfect moment as far as LA Galaxy’s MLS Cup ambitions are concerned.
Riqui Puig Penetrating Carries Map 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs
Another data viz above captures Puig’s high-quality abilities to carry the ball forward from deep, which has been a very useful weapon in Galaxy’s attacking arsenal, both in possession and in transitional phases.
This ability will be crucial when they face their sternest test yet against an experienced Seattle team that likes to sit deep and soak up pressure while trying to nick something on the break.
LA Galaxy will have paid close attention to where their city rivals, Los Angeles FC, fell short in setting up the biggest El Tráfico of them all after stumbling against this Seattle team, and will look to avoid similar mistakes.
And while the front three of Pec-Joveljić-Paintsil have been sensational, they will need to receive supply from midfield and into spaces to be able to break down this Seattle defence, and Puig will be the biggest key in them getting that.
Riqui Puig Pass Map – 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs
Lastly, his pass map from this playoff run is above, which once again highlights his involvement throughout the pitch from all corners offensively.
If Puig plays the way he has lately, Seattle will have difficulty overcoming this hot Galaxy offence.
Because if Puig plays well, the rest of the offence does too, which is a scary sight for the visitors wearing green this Saturday night.
It will all come down to the Spaniard to find a way to deliver against Brian Schmetzer’s low-block defence, which has repeatedly proven successful in Seattle’s playoff runs over the years.
As Galaxy aim to win their first title in ten years, Puig will be the main man they’ll look to make that happen, and this Western Conference Final will be the biggest test of his MLS career to date.
Seattle Sounders: Stefan Frei (GK)
Conversely, the choice regarding who the key man is is far less debatable, and it’s the man in between the sticks.
None other than 38-year-old Swiss goalkeeper Stefan Frei.
Throughout this playoff run, much like in any previous one for Seattle over the past decade, Frei has excelled in goal, helping them to two penalty shootout victories over Houston Dynamo before a man-of-the-match performance last weekend at LAFC, where he produced nine saves in a 2-1 victory.
Stefan Frei Shots Faced Map – 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs
As the map above highlights the shots he’s faced at goal in this run and the xG versus prevented goals, he’s only been beaten once by an opposition shot in the three games to date.
He’s managed to prevent 4.11 goals from going in, which is outrageous but also something MLS fans have been accustomed to seeing from Frei at this stage of the season for a long time now.
And up against this fierce Galaxy attack on the road, Seattle will need to lean on their Swiss-born custodian to produce one of his very best career performances to have any chance of walking away with a fifth MLS Cup appearance in just nine years.
With the potential absences of key defensive figures like Yeimar Gómez and Nouhou Tolo, who are doubts due to injury, Seattle’s short-handed defense will find it very difficult to cope with Galaxy’s on-song attackers, making Frei the most important line of defense for them on Saturday night.
Anything less than a world-class performance from him will probably lead them to be eliminated, but if there’s one goalkeeper in the league capable of producing magic on this stage, it’s Frei.
Conclusion
The stage is set for this weekend’s Western and Eastern Conference Finals, with two potentially mouth-watering clashes in store for league followers.
With two MLS heavyweights meeting on one end and two sides who have never touched the MLS Cup hardware in their history on the other, there could be many twists and turns between now and the end of the season on December 7th.
One thing’s for sure: one of these four teams will lift the trophy on that day, either for the first time in the case of the Eastern sides or for the first time this decade for the Western teams.
