After a five-month delay, both Manchester City and Lyon finished off their UEFA Champions League Round of 16 ties. Victories over Real Madrid and Juventus, respectively, place the two clubs on a collision course at the Estádio José Alvalade, home of Sporting Portugal.
Many expected Manchester City to emerge from their Round of 16 clash against Real Madrid, staking claim to one of the tournament favourites tags in the process. It’s Lyon’s upset against Juventus that shocked the football world. The French side, who had only played one competitive match since March, held onto the early lead to win their tie on the away goals rule.
This tactical analysis breaks down the expected tactics of each team. With Manchester City expected to have more of the ball, we examine how City can break down Lyon’s low block. For the French side, the tactical fit of Lyon’s two-forward approach is a tactical fit that should pay dividends. Finally, the long layovers have negatively impacted many players’ form. Given the significant number of mistakes leading to goals, this tactical analysis will investigate where those mistakes are most likely to occur.
Predicted Lineups
Manchester City’s predicted lineup (4-3-3) – Ederson; Kyle Walker, Fernandinho, Aymeric Laporte, João Cancelo; Rodri, Kevin De Bruyne, Bernardo Silva; Riyad Mahrez, Gabriel Jesus, Raheem Sterling
Look for Pep Guardiola to field a more attack-heavy lineup in this match. Rather than the double pivot of Rodri and Gündoğan that we saw against Real Madrid, expect another playmaking midfielder to join the mix. My guess is that Bernardo returns to the starting XI next to De Bruyne. Across the backline, no changes are expected, though Benjamin Mendy is available after missing the clash against Madrid due to suspension. Fernandinho is the likely starter at centre-back, but Lyon’s direct attacking style could cause issues for him. Finally, Phil Foden played well in the previous match, but Mahrez is the attacking upgrade the side needs.
Lyon’s predicted lineup (3-5-2) – Anthony Lopes; Jason Denayer, Marcelo, Marçal; Léo Dubois, Maxence Caqueret, Bruno Guimarães, Houssem Aouar, Maxwel Cornet; Moussa Dembélé, Memphis Depay
Rudi Garcia will counter with his battle-tested 3-5-2. Much like the match against Juventus, this formation will really look like a 5-3-2. When City has possession, and they’ll have most of it, Dubois and Cornet will drop into the backline to ensure Lyon has the central presence to deny Manchester City’s entry into the central channel. The one expected lineup change from the Juventus match is the return of Dembélé to the starting XI, who will supplant Karl Toko Ekambi up top.
