The Liverpool and Manchester City rivalry has been one of the most intense and entertaining in recent Premier League history and in world football in general.
Over the past few seasons, everyone has been excited when Liverpool and Manchester City face off, and there is almost never a clear favourite going into the match, no matter what.
It doesn’t matter who is in the best form or who has been playing badly lately; once this match rolls around, it’s always 50/50.
More recently, Manchester City have been on a poor run, not winning a single match in their last six games, while Liverpool are coming off a UCL win against Real Madrid that ended 2-0.
With Liverpool at the top of the table, City could close that gap to five points with a win, while Liverpool can make it an 11-point gap.
The head-to-head history between these teams is written below: out of 226 total meetings, Liverpool have won 108 times, with 58 draws and Manchester City have 60 victories.
However, in recent Premier League encounters, City have had the upper hand, with Liverpool winning just one of their last nine matches against the Citizens, but City’s horrible form could hand Liverpool another win.
Injuries & Doubts
The match also comes with its share of injuries from the past few games.
Liverpool will be without several key players, including Alisson, Diogo Jota, Federico Chiesa, Kostas Tsimikas, Ibrahima Konaté, and Conor Bradley.
Manchester City are also dealing with injuries to Rodri, Mateo Kovačić, and John Stones.
Liverpool FC Current Form
Liverpool are on fire, having won each of their last six matches and only lost once this season — in September against Nottingham Forest.
Arne Slot has really fit into the Liverpool role very well and has Liverpool at the top of the EPL and UCL, looking like a strong contender for both competitions.
The players are more in form than ever and will go into this match with full confidence, especially after having beaten Real Madrid 2-0 just a few days ago.
Manchester City Current Form
Manchester City, on the other hand, are winless in their last six matches, having lost five of them and giving up a 3-0 lead in the UCL against Feyenoord, where they drew the game.
Pep Guardiola is facing an injury crisis, and players have been rotated in and out, playing out of position, but this is something he has faced before.
A win here can be pivotal to their turnaround.
Liverpool FC Shot Map
Liverpool have scored the third-most goals in the EPL so far with 24 and an xG of 21.46, meaning they are exceeding their expectations when shooting on net.
Manchester City Shot Map
In contrast, Manchester City have scored 22 goals from an xG of 23.63, meaning they are underperforming when it comes to putting the ball in the back of the net.
Mohamed Salah Shot Map
Mohamed Salah has scored seven non-penalty goals from 33 shots, with a total xG of 4.8.
He is currently the second-top scorer in the EPL and is in amazing form, so we can expect to see him tear up the wing once again.
Erling Haaland Shot Map
Erling Haaland is the current top scorer in the EPL, having netted 11 non-penalty goals from 57 shots, with an expected goals xG of 10.73.
His opportunities up top haven’t been as favourable, with key players around him either injured or out of form.
However, his form could quickly turn around today.
Liverpool FC Shots Against Map
Liverpool have conceded the fewest goals so far in the EPL, with only eight goals against them, facing an xG of 8.65 from the left and 6.33 xG from the right.
However, conceding only eight goals suggests that their goalkeeper, Kelleher, is effectively thwarting these attempts, having recently saved a penalty from Real Madrid this past week.
It appears to be his breakout season at the top flight this year.
Manchester City Shots Against Map
Manchester City, on the other hand, has allowed 17 goals this season, which is quite high for them 12 games into the season.
Although this number is on par with many other clubs, by Manchester City’s standards, it is a significant issue.
It seems as though their defence often forgets how to guard against transitions and is frequently out of place.
Walker on the right appears out of sync, and Gvardiol has had his moments at left back that certainly don’t help.
Players like Mohamed Salah can exploit the disorganisation of the Man City backline, and Gvardiol struggles this season at left-back or left centre-back, making that battle one to watch.
Liverpool FC’s Edge
Liverpool have a significant advantage due to their attack against a Manchester City side that has been defensively poor this year.
Below, we’ll look at how often Liverpool enter the final third and how dangerous they are in that zone.
Liverpool FC Penetrating Carries Map
Liverpool have a staggering 285 penetration carries this season in the Premier League alone.
This means they average roughly 21 penetrating carries per match across their 13 matches, which is obviously very high.
Their wingers, like Salah and Luis Diaz, are among the best dribblers in the world.
However, Liverpool’s surrounding players are also excellent ball carriers.
For example, Alexis Mac Allister, Dominik Szoboszlai, Curtis Jones, and Cody Gakpo are elite ball carriers who can push the ball into the final third as well.
This is what makes them so dangerous; these are two-way players who can perform their defensive duties in midfield or drop from striker to press, but they also possess the technical skill to advance forward and eventually feed their wingers.
Liverpool FC Ball Progression Map
The ball progression map illustrates how often Liverpool players make runs into the box from wide zones, highlighting areas where Salah and Diaz can exploit space.
Additionally, it shows that their midfielders are also key ball carriers and progressors in the final third.
You can observe the runs from wide zones during the build-up phase, where they aim to go directly to their wingers.
This can definitely hurt a City squad that has not been coordinated in the back at all this season; those direct passes to the wingers can definitely hurt them today.
Manchester City’s Edge
Manchester City Progressive Pass Map
Manchester City’s edge is going to be their classic possession-based characteristics.
They have the highest possession average per 90 minutes in the league at 63.4%.
Being able to maintain possession is the biggest advantage they can have today since they have been very poor in both attacking and defending.
As Pep Guardiola once said, having the ball is defending.
Conclusion
Today’s match is crucial; Manchester City can either close the gap to five points or Liverpool can extend it to 11.
At that point, it would seem very likely Liverpool could win the league with such a huge gap.
Nerves will be present for both teams as they both have so much at stake.
It’s hard to predict how City will line up given their horrible form; there may be major changes, even with big-name players possibly being benched due to their recent poor performances.
Pep Guardiola is the type of manager who would certainly make such decisions, regardless of the importance of the game.
Some speculate a more defensive formation for City, given their defensive weaknesses, but I highly doubt they will deviate from their attacking football philosophy, no matter the scenario.
For Liverpool, it’s expected they will play their usual 4-3-3, which shifts to a 4-2-4 in build-up and attack, a strategy that has been working very well for them this season.
