This Sunday we have the first (second depending on where you stand on the Community Shield debate) silverware up for grabs in England. The EFL Cup Final has arrived once again this season. On one side, a club whose appearance in this match has become somewhat of an expectation in recent years: Manchester City, who beat city rivals Manchester United 3-2 in the semifinal. Their opponents this year are newly promoted Aston Villa, who reached the final by overcoming Leicester City 3-2 in the semifinal as well.
Aston Villa have a huge task on their hands to stop Manchester City, who are looking for their third triumph in succession in this competition. On top of this, City came out 6-1 winners in this fixture only just over a month ago at Villa Park.
In this tactical analysis preview, we will take a look at where both sides can look to find an advantage in this match. We will focus on Villa’s defensive set-up and counter-attacking tactics while looking at City’s focus on winning the battles in wide areas. This analysis will also include a specific look Jack Grealish, who will be looking to lead his side to a fantastic final victory.
Lineups
Both sides will have plenty of reason to be up for this match. For Villa, this final represents a massive opportunity in a season where they have been consistently fighting against the potential threat of relegation. Dean Smith will be looking to pick his best team for an occasion that could have a huge positive impact on the team morale as they enter the final stretch of the league campaign. Tyrone Mings will be looking to lead the side from the centre of defence. Ahead of him, Douglas Luiz will be offered another chance to give Pep Guardiola something to rue about his departure in the past summer. Club captain Jack Grealish will most likely start on the left side of midfield but will have the freedom to move around the pitch as he sees fit.
Aston Villa (4-1-4-1): Pepe Reina; Targett, Mings, Hause, Guilbert; Douglas Luiz; Nakamba, Drinkwater; Grealish, Samatta, El-Ghazi
Guardiola’s side are coming off a stunning 2-1 win over Real Madrid in the first leg of their Champions League tie at the Bernabeu. On top of this, big names such as Sergio Aguero, Raheem Sterling, and David Silva all started the match on the bench. This being said, expect a very strong side from the defending champions, who will be looking at this cup as a chance to salvage what has been a very up and down campaign thus far. Claudio Bravo will start in net for City, and Aymeric Laporte will be missing due to picking up another unfortunate injury midweek. Otherwise, City’s side will be strong and present many problems for Villa on this afternoon.
Manchester City (4-3-3): Bravo; Cancelo, Otamendi, Fernandinho, Zinchenko; Gündogan, David Silva, de Bruyne; Bernardo Silva, Agüero, Sterling
Lessons learned for Aston Villa
In the matchup between these two sides in January, we saw Aston Villa use a different set-up than their first encounter in October. They opted to use a 5-3-2 formation in this match to have the defensive solidity to keep City quiet. However, this plan seriously backfired, and the visitors ran rampant against this structure.
There are a couple of key reasons to the 6-1 defeat Villa fell to. The main point comes from the lack of protection the midfield and forward lines offered to the defensive line. With the home side sitting deep for large portions of the match, City looked to drop players into deeper positions to look to create overloads to progress play into the final third before looking for the final ball. This often included Sergio Agüero dropping into more of a centre-forward role. When he dropped, none of the three centre-halves were comfortable with following him into this area in fear of leaving a gap in behind. As well, none of the midfielders dropped in to block off the option, as they were occupied with City’s midfield. Essentially, Agüero had the freedom to roam around the pitch away from his starting position and look to combine with teammates.
In large part to this defeat, it is likely we will see Aston Villa revert into their 4-1-4-1 formation. Immediately, the presence of this holding midfielder in between the defensive and higher midfield line solves the issue they faced in this second Premier League encounter. This set-up also proved its worth in the match at the Etihad earlier this season. Villa frustrated City for the majority of the first-half in this set-up. Their compact structure in the centre of the pitch made it difficult for City to generate any attacking avenues here, and they were forced to look to different areas of the pitch.
Manchester City’s wide movements
Manchester City are known for their wide array of attacking potency throughout their side. The wide areas are often where they are able to create a lot of this threat to oppositions. When attacking, City are patiently waiting for opportunities to shift the opponent’s defensive block in ways to allow them to quickly move possession into weak areas. This can frequently come in these wide areas of the pitch.
When City hosted Villa earlier this season, this proved to be the case. With the 4-1-4-1 structure we discussed earlier, Villa forced the defending champions to look wide in order to attack. Guardiola’s side were able to generate multiple quality chances from these avenues only to be wasteful in front of goal, and it is likely we will see this again.
