Like many previous Bundesliga seasons, many people made predictions at the start of the season that Bayern Munich will win the title. Given the squad they have at their disposal it is not surprising that they are the favourites for the Bundesliga title, but also that they are one of the main favourites to win the Champions League to follow up last seasons success. This analysis, however, will show us why Bayern can’t relax too much like in previous seasons while also showing that Bundesliga teams perform well in European competitions for a reason. All the Bundesliga teams that reached the group phase of the Champions League and Europa League went qualified to the knockout phase this season.
Through this data analysis, we will take a look at the numbers of the Bundesliga clubs and compare them in different statistics
Performance and expected goals model
The first graph we will analyze consists of created metrics called defensive and offensive performance. Both metrics are in percentage and they represent the team variance between xG and goals.
When we talk about teams who overperform their expected goal values, on this graph it is clear that Bayer Leverkusen are the biggest overperformer. Leverkusen are 1st for offensive performance % and 4th for defensive performance %. The other two teams who overperform in both directions are Arminia Bielefeld and Augsburg who are both in the lower part of the table. Even though Arminia are the 15th placed team, they have conceded less than expected and thus big compliments should go in the direction of their goalkeeper Ortega Moreno. Mainz is the biggest underperformer in the league and it is not surprising that they are 17th on the table. Schalke 04 and Köln are in that underperforming bracket s well and they are in 18th and 16th place on the table respectively. It is interesting to find Borussia Mönchengladbach and Hoffenheim as underperformers in the Bundesliga given their strong performances in European competitions this season. Both teams should perform better than they currently do based on their playing squad. Bayern are the 2nd biggest offensive performer and the biggest underperformer in terms of their defence. Their matches often end with a lot of goals on both sides and it is clear that they have certain problems in defence and that Manuel Neuer is in bad form this season. Second-placed RB Leipzig are the 2nd biggest offensive underperformer which says a lot about Timo Werners importance for them, but it also looks like Werner is missing RB Leipzig as well, given his poor start at Chelsea. It seems that Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund are finding themselves close to what was expected from them based on the expected goals model.
The next graph will show us xG values to see the quality of teams based on the quality of chances created and allowed.
