I would give our relationship with the UK and now, especially after these two days with your Prime Minister, I would say the highest level of special. Am I allowed to go higher than that? Im not sure.
Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States, following his state visit to the UK, June 2019
It’s always nice to look at the inspiring and eloquent words of our political leaders to add a sense of reality to the often abstract talk of football analysis. Whilst President Trump gushed about the Queen, Brexit, Boris Johnson and whatever filled his Twitter feed during his two-day visit to the UK last month, his presence was an important barometer when understanding how close the Old World and the New World had become. There is no doubt, however, that tonight’s game in Lyon could test Trump’s own definition of the word “special”.
In this tactical analysis we shall see how England have the potential to cut out the US’ attacks before they’ve even begun, how Megan Rapinoe’s positioning on the left is a deliberate and difficult proposition to defend against, how Lucy Bronze must deal with this threat but still lead England’s attack from the right flank, and how Jill Ellis has a defensive mechanism so well drilled, it could reinvent defensive play.
Tactical analysis: lineups and shape
For all his prior talk of having contrasting styles and different tactical muses, critics were perhaps correct to suggest that this was all bluster Neville was employing as he faked-until-he-made it. With their recent performances, as well as the increased difficulty of the opposition, we’d expect him to retain his developing 4-2-3-1 formation. Likewise, in terms of playing personnel, Neville will look for consistency.
The major change Neville made for their previous game was the replacement of Alex Greenwood at left back for Demi Stokes. The Mancunian rivalry has extended to the left back spot and given her previous performance, Neville would be wise to stick with Stokes. Despite winning only one of her six defensive duels against Norway, which measured up to a success percentage of 17%, Greenwood’s tournament has been less than water-tight. Even though her average success rate accrued some hyperinflation from England’s pummelling of Argentina, it comes out largely similar to Stokes’.
On the other side of the park, things seem a lot safer to predict. The USA have powered through the tournament and into this semi-final with their iconic 4-3-3. The shape provides both attacking as well as defensive flexibility. As the USA’s hegemony over world football has been slowly chipped away with each passing game, the side cannot allow arrogance in either department to get the better of them.
The USA’s only personnel changes have been the rearranging the vertebrae in their defensive spine. When Julie Ertz sat in the back line whilst Becky Sauerbrunn overcame an injury against Thailand, we saw Lindsey Horan drop into the middle of the field. Since Ertz’s ball playing qualities match her undeniable defensive skill and she’s played as a defensive midfielder. We expect the USWNT to main this squad for their upcoming game. Indeed, Ertz’s passing percentage of 77.25% during the World Cup trumps her season average of 75.7%. This did take a hit against France, where a strangling high press kicked this down to just 59%, and this is somewhere England should target.
