Making a step up from the League One to the Championship is never easy, especially with the fact that several names in the league are getting stronger by securing the service of many well-known players. But in recent years, there are some teams who managed to close the distance of that gap either through their tactics or the ability of the whole squad.
We have seen the likes of Sheffield United and Millwall making progress in the 2017-18 season and the former even secured promotion the season after. Then, Charlton Athletic have had a decent start to this season as they position themselves inside the promotion-chasing group on several occasions. Still, what happened to the other two teams that went up along with Charlton? Barnsley are still struggling as they currently place last in the league table and have just seen manager Daniel Stendel leave the club to be replaced by former Wolfsberger AC manager Gerhard Struber.
For Luton Town, though, they have a strong start to the season but then saw a dip in form and currently, they are one point away from the relegation spots. Looking at their stats, though, the record of 22 goals seems like pretty impressive for a newcomer like them and even makes them the second-highest goal-scoring team among the bottom half of the table, just below Cardiff’s record of 23 goals. In contrast, with 30 goals conceded from the start of the season, they are also the second-highest team in terms of conceding alongside Queens Park Rangers and only better than Barnsley (33 goals conceded).
This tactical analysis scout report will provide an analysis of the contrast between Luton Town’s xG and xGA stats. Meanwhile, using statistics and footage, we will point out the strengths and weaknesses of Graeme Jones’ tactics.
Formation
Even from the beginning stage of the season, the former West Bromwich Albion assistant manager already showed his intention of keeping the principles that helped the team secured back-to-back promotions under Nathan Jones and Mick Harford. Lining up in a 4-1-2-1-2, Luton focus on playing through the central area more often while still occupying both flanks using the flexible movements of the strikers and the overlapping runs of the wing-backs.
But as the season goes by, Jones also implements several tactical changes which allow the team to adapt to the Championship more easily. Firstly, by using either Jacob Butterfield, Martin Cranie or Alan Sheehan as a single pivot, it is possible for the team to create a back-three during their build-up process. Usually, both centre-backs will drift wide into the half-spaces to allow the defensive midfielder to slot into the central area, similar to how a half-back plays.
This strategy allows the attacking midfielder below them, in this case, is either James Collins or Izzy Brown, to attack the central area. They will make late runs into the box to turn up at the end of crosses or linking up with the midfielders and drive forward on their own. Combines the two most noticeable changes with the familiar principles, it is easy to point out that Luton play in a 3-4-3 formation on many occasions this season.
Overperforming their xG
As mentioned, Luton have scored 22 goals up until before matchday seventeen of the Championship, which is an impressive record for a newly-promoted team. Besides from Cornick and Collins’ records of five goals respectively, the goals are spread quite equally among the team, which shows the fact that every player has the chance to score in each match. According to the numbers, they are even outperforming their total expected goals, which stands at 16.13 goals. To understand how Luton are doing better than the numbers expected them to, it is worth looking at their attacking style of play.
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