Matheus Cunha officially became a Manchester United player after the Red Devils paid the £62.5m release clause that Wolverhampton Wanderers had set.
Reports also suggest that United are interested in adding Bryan Mbeumo as their second new attacker this summer, and that the player is willing to move to Manchester.
Last season, Cunha and Mbeumo were two of the top scorers in the Premier League.
The former scored 15 goals, while the latter scored 20 for Brentford.
United are about to sign two players who have scored a combined 35 goals—that’s massive.
Both players have proven themselves to be attackers who can carry their teams attack.
Cunha was arguably Wolves most important attacking player, while Mbeumo led his teams goal contributions last season.
From a tactical standpoint, they appear to be the players that United are looking for to play in the double-ten positions, or as nines when needed, in Ruben Amorim’s 3-4-3 system.
They have both proven themselves to be good Premier League-calibre players.
However, there are some concerns about them, due to their respective costs.
The concern about signing these players for large sums of money (Mbeumo is reported to have cost around £55m) is not about their quality.
Instead, it is the idea that Man United are paying a premium price for their contributions last season, despite underlying numbers showing that they are not 35-goal producers and that this pattern is unsustainable.
So, the concern is not whether they are good enough for United, but whether they are really worth the money United are paying.
That is what this Manchester United player analysis is here to explore in this Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo scouting report.
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Overperforming NPxG Is Not Sustainable
In short, unless you are a player of the calibre of Lionel Messi, Harry Kane or Kylian Mbappé, it is very unlikely that you will consistently overperform your expected goals.
Do you think Cunha and Mbeumo will reach that level?
I would assume not.
From 2021/2022 to last season, there were 51 cases in which a player outperformed their non-penalty expected goals (NPxG) by more than +3.
This includes Cunha, who had +5.4, and Mbeumo, who had +7.5 last season.
However, of those 51 cases, only six players had more than two such instances.
These were Phil Foden, Son Heung-min, Jarrod Bowen, James Ward-Prowse, James Maddison and Rodri (yes, the Ballon d’Or winner).
78% of cases, or 39 players, only had one season in which they overperformed by more than +3 NPxG.
If we narrow the numbers again to players who overperformed their NPxG while scoring more than 10 goals on multiple occasions, the list is reduced to just Son, Foden and Bowen.
The case is interesting.
After overperforming his NPxG by +7.1 in the 2021/2022 season, Son’s numbers dropped to -0.1.
They rocketed again to +4.6 in the 2023/2024 season before decreasing to +0.4 last season—a rollercoaster ride.
Foden and Bowen had different cases.
The former collected +5.1 NPxG, overperformed, and scored 11 non-penalty goals in the 2022/2023 season.
The following season, after being named the best player in the league, he scored 19 non-penalty goals, achieving a +8.7 overperformance.
However, his numbers dropped to +1.7 last season, when he scored just seven goals.
Bowen is an interesting case.
In the 2023/2024 season, he scored 16 non-penalty goals, overperforming his NPxG by +4.4.
Last season, this figure fell slightly to +4.2, and his non-penalty goals dropped to just 12.
Based on these examples, United fans will be hoping that Cunha and Mbeumo will follow in Foden’s footsteps.
Of course, context matters: Foden played in the powerful Manchester City attack during those seasons and became a centrepiece in the last one.
Cunha and Mbeumo were also the centrepieces of their team’s attack last season.
Will they have the same privilege in United’s inconsistent attack under Amorim?
We’ll see.
One thing is certain: the likelihood of repeating and surpassing your overperforming numbers and maintaining double-digit goals is very small; history tells us it is highly unlikely.
If you don’t think this research is sufficient, Conor O’Neill’s research in The Athletic estimates that Mbeumo has only a 0.4% chance of scoring 15 goals or more, while Cunha has a 1.7% chance of achieving his tally or more.
According to Opta analyst Matt Furniss, it is also unlikely that Cunha will consistently outperform his expected goals (xG).
Research by Spencer Mossman concluded that there is no reason to expect this pattern to continue.
I also agree that many factors influence finishing and that xG is just a model, which may be inadequate for measuring it.
I’ve tried to analyse Cunha and Mbeumo’s shooting patterns to see if they’ve the potential to become exceptional finishers, or at least reach Son’s level.
Matheus Cunha & Bryan Mbeumo Shooting Pattern
Last season, Cunha scored five goals from outside the box.
Make that six if you count the goal he scored from a corner against his new club.
His tally is indeed the highest in the Premier League.
But can you guess who is second?
His new teammate, Bruno Fernandes.
Not only are they both topping the goal ranking, but they are also in the top four for shooting outside the penalty box.
It is interesting to consider whether Amorim thinks having two players who love shooting from outside the box is a good idea.
Because it’s not rocket science to know that the decision to shoot from outside the box isn’t sustainable.
For example, in the last five seasons, no Premier League player has successfully scored five or more goals from outside the box in two different seasons.
Kevin de Bruyne came closest, scoring five goals from outside the box in the 2021/2022 season and four the following season.
But even De Bruyne, famous for his ability to score outside the box, has struggled.
In the 2021/2022 season, his conversion rate for shots outside the box was 12%, dropping to just 8.5% the following season.
Assuming Cunha scored six goals last season, his conversion rate was 10.7%.
It would be great if he could maintain a conversion rate above 10% for shots outside the box and score at least five goals next season.
However, the likelihood is very low.
Looking at his shooting map, Cunha loves to shoot early when he gets the ball in the half-space.
Last season, he attempted 41 shots from outside the box in open play situations, 43% of which were on target, with four of them resulting in goals.
Those are pretty decent numbers, but the total xG from all the shots on target is only 0.83.
He overperformed his xG by +3.17.
From last season, we can see that Cunha can shoot in this situation:
Or when he’s under pressure like this:
Neither is a case of particularly smart shot selection.
Amorim and his coaching staff might hope that Cunha can replicate his numbers from last season, but the situation is indeed different.
We can take Fernandes as an example.
Not only did he have a worse conversion rate in terms of goals last season, but he also only had a 30% on-target rate when it came to open play outside the box.
Examining his shooting clips, it’s evident that he faced a more complex challenge in terms of pressure from opponents and the defensive line.
Cunha makes faster decisions when shooting and is good at creating angles, but can he still do that in a more complex situation with United?
That’s a big question mark.
Mbuemo is a different story, though.
Compared to Cunha or Fernandes, he didn’t take many shots from outside the box last season.
His shooting selection is better than Cunha’s, and it is easy to see a pattern emerging: He loves to shoot from the right edge of the penalty box, creating shooting angles by making cutting inside moves.
These typical shooting angles and locations enable him to score despite low xG numbers.
However, his strength lies in knowing how to bring the ball into the penalty box and deciding to shoot from there.
If we analyse the shooting selections of United’s wingers, such as Alejandro Garnacho and Amad Diallo, we can see that Mbeumo has the potential to replicate his shooting patterns.
They also have similar NPxG per-shot numbers, meaning they essentially have similar shooting selections. Mbeumo has 0.10, the same as Amad; Garnacho has 0.9.
However, the results (goals) show that this is not really effective for United.
This may be due to the way Garnacho or Diallo finish, but the pressure and space they face are different from what Mbeumo faced at Brentford.
So, there are two options: Either Mbeumo’s finishing is spectacular, or his tally last season was due to the space Brentford had as a team.
The first reason is basically why United were interested in signing him.
However, history suggests that, in his Premier League career, Mbeumo has never overperformed his NPxG, except in the last season.
Over the past four seasons, Mbeumo has underperformed his NPxG.
Although the number is small at -0.2, it shows that he is a predictable finisher.
He may have improved last season, but the likelihood of him repeating that performance is low.
The same applies to Cunha; he has not been a decent finisher throughout his career, except last season.
Yes, he also overperformed his NPxG the season before, but by only +2.3.
He wasn’t particularly clinical during his time at Hertha BSC and Atlético Madrid.
Therefore, Mbeumo and Cunha need to significantly improve to reach Son’s level as a good finisher.
The Tottenham Hotspur forward, for example, has overperformed his NPxG by +12 over the last four seasons.
Based on these two aspects — the underlying numbers and shooting patterns — it seems that United are paying more for these players based on their ‘actual goal tax’ numbers.
Other Values That Influence The Transfer
However, it‘s also obvious that there are other aspects that United see in Cunha and Mbeumo, and it is just not about their goals number—which does not have a sustainable pattern.
First, both of them can also be creators.
Depending on what source you use, Mbeumo can be among the best in expected assists statistics.
According to the Wyscout model, Mbeumo ranked fifth with 8.01 points, recording a total of 8 assists.
The 25-year-old is also known for his ability in set-piece situations, as some of his assists also came from there.
However, the highlight of Mbeumo’s creation is his ability to open up his body, particularly for a cut-inside move rather than shooting, but to send crosses or cut-backs to his teammates.
He is a really dangerous threat on the right side of Brentford‘s attack, and United hope he‘ll create the same situation for them next season.
Cunha might not be as productive as Mbeumo at creating chances for his teammates, but he is still a good creator.
One thing that Cunha could bring to United is his ability to send smart passes, which the Red Devils really lacked last season.
According to Wyscout’s definition, a smart pass is a creative, penetrating pass that aims to break down the opposition’s defensive line and gain a significant advantage in attack.
Cunha ranked second in the Premier League last season, sending 27 smart passes to his teammates.
Well, there‘s a note about that.
We analysed it; the smart passes from Cunha often came in situations where Wolves had big space to exploit behind their opponent‘s defensive line.
Given that Wolves‘ opponents tend to have a higher defensive line than United‘s, it‘s also questionable if Cunha could produce the same impact.
He also assisted his teammates six times last season, which can boost United‘s creativity.
Additionally, both players excel at creating chances through carries.
Cunha had 34 carries that ended with shots last season, and Mbeumo had 30.
When it comes to the carries that ended with chances, Cunha contributed 23 last season, four of which were assists.
Meanwhile, Mbeumo had 24, two of which also became assists.
The ability to create chances through carries for themself or teammates is something United need to add, especially if they let Garnacho go.
However, aside from adding (potentially) a creator to their team, United’s problem is not what happens in the final third.
It, and this is very important, is about how they get into the final third itself.
Last season, they were ranked ninth in terms of passes to the final third, and they really relied on Fernandes for this.
By (potentially) adding two players to be starters to fill the double 10s, Amorim may have had an idea to play Fernandes more backwards last season.
However, the UEFA Europa League Final and some Premier League matches showed that Fernandes is not really the person to fill the two-way role and also provide defensive stability as a midfielder.
Putting Manuel Ugarte beside him might help a bit, but United seems to need someone else to fill that role, as Fernandes is also still productive upfront in the final third.
In my opinion, this role is actually the one United should prioritise spending the money on.
But, as people in my country said, the rice has already become a porridge.
You can‘t undo it, at least for Cunha context.
How United Should’ve Set The Price
We already know that Cunha and Mbeumo don’t have spectacular xG, but they are good at creating chances.
It is interesting to see their expected goal involvements, which contain xG and xA.
According to the Wyscout ranking for xG+xA per 90 minutes in the Premier League last season, neither Cunha nor Mbeumo ranked in the top 20.
Cunha is in 25th place with an average of 0.52 xG+xA per 90 minutes; Mbeumo is one place ahead of him with a very similar number.
Cunha and Mbeumo are in the same group as players such as Cody Gakpo, Brennan Johnson, Omar Marmoush, Adama Traoré, Evanilson, Gabriel Martinelli, Savinho, and Phil Foden.
Last season, all of them produced an xG+xA per 90 minutes between 0.54 and 0.50.
This is far from Mohamed Salah, who topped the league with 0.88.
Manchester United should look to this group to inform their decision on how much to spend on Cunha and Mbeumo.
Within this group, only Marmoush was bought by City for more than £50m.
The rest were bought for less than that.
Players like Savinho and Gakpo were even bought by their clubs from another league with way less money.
This suggests that players capable of producing that amount of xG+xA can also be found outside the Premier League.
According to Wyscout, Cunha is valued at €45m, and Mbeumo at €40m.
Of course, other factors influence the transfer price, and in Cunha’s case, United also paid his release clause.
However, this group shows that United paid (and will pay in the case of Mbeumo) a bit more than the market price.
The problem is that United are not currently in the best financial condition to purchase players at the top end of the market.
They should have been more careful with player spending.
They must focus on the area that needs the most improvement.
While Cunha and Mbeumo might solve the attacking problems they faced last season, it still appears that the issue of bringing the ball forward won’t be resolved with the current squad.
Conclusion
As this Cunha and Mbeumo analysis has shown, they both have the quality to lead their team’s attack.
They proved this last season with their outstanding performances, goals, and assists.
However, the underlying numbers, their shooting pattern, and their history suggest last season could have been an outlier for them, suggesting they have a chance to return to their normal level of performance.
This is why their actual price shouldn‘t be as high as what United paid (and will pay) for both of them.
United basically valued them with the ‘NPxG overperformance’ tax, which is very unlikely to be sustainable.
Cunha and Mbeumo also have additional value in terms of carrying and creating.
Still, the underlying numbers on goal involvement indicate they fall within the bracket of players with a market value of around €40–€55m.
Unfortunately, United spent more than that at a time when they are not in the best financial shape, especially since they will miss out on European football next season.
This once again shows that United still act glamorously in the transfer market, even when they are not in the best position to do so.
