Newcastle United’s impressive 2022/23 Premier League campaign has transformed them from mid-table mediocrity to UEFA Champions League competitors.
Much of their success was helped by the new-found financial backing provided by the club’s new owners, leading to some claims that the Magpies have bought their way into the top four.
While it is true that they have spent money under new ownership, two major factors completely destroy the notion that they are only where they are because of money.
Firstly, the money they spent was spent wisely, with almost all their signings contributing heavily to their Premier League campaign.
Secondly, and sadly, money rules football today—the Premier League in particular: it is nearly impossible for a team that hasn’t splashed the cash on talent to break into the top four and stay there for more than one season.
While this is only the toon’s first season, finishing in the top four under new ownership, we should expect them to be right up there again by May 2024, thanks to more expert work from Eddie Howe and his team in the transfer market.
Of course, by expert work in the transfer market, we are speaking of Sandro Tonali.
The Italy international is on the verge of switching to Howe’s club for a reported fee of nearly £70m (including add-ons).
It could be the marquee signing the Tyneside club needs to establish themselves as a consistent force in the Premier League.
This Sandro Tonali scout report looks at Tonali’s strength’s both in and out of possession in the form of a tactical analysis – an analysis of how he could feature in Newcastle’s tactics.
The analysis will also take some time to identify three potential replacements that could interest AC Milan – they are losing a star midfielder after all.
We have identified the potential replacements using TFA’s in-house similarity tool XGOLD.
The tool helps us find quality players and players who are similar to the subject player. This means we can find midfielders who, theoretically, should suit Milan’s tactics.
Sandro Tonali Player profile
Tonali brings versatility to the midfield ranks, for sure.
Thus far in his career, his primary position has been defensive midfielder, although he occasionally plays higher up.
Milan have played a 4-2-3-1 a lot of the time this season, with Tonali often playing in one of the deep midfield roles.
While he has spent significant time playing in naturally defensive positions, he shows no hesitation in bursting forward and supporting possession/attacks from a more advanced position.
At times, it seems that he holds the license to free roam, often popping up on either flank to support his team’s build-up play phases.
In terms of attributes, Tonali embodies the term “well-rounded player”, possessing strong defensive ability while being more than effective in possession – with the physical traits to support involvement in both.
Where and how he fits into Howe’s tactics remains to be seen.
Newcastle’s go-to shape in 2022/23 was 4-3-3, with one deeper midfielder.
While there was some rotation and room for selection influenced by versatility within the ranks, the deeper midfield role was often undertaken by Bruno Guimarães, with Joe Willock playing in the LCM role – another position that Tonali is familiar with.
Sean Longstaff and Joelinton have been the top two options at Howe’s disposal for the final midfield role, so we may see Tonali take it.
He offers a similar style in terms of contributing both defensively and in attack.
This graph shows how Tonali has contributed to Milan this season compared to other players in his position.
It paints the picture of a player who is strong and reliable when called upon defensively but also likes to get involved in the final third.
No stranger to goal contributions, Tonali will be hopeful of surpassing his total of two league goals from 2022/23.
Sandro Tonali In possession
Squad depth is a key aspect of any team juggling domestic football with European competition.
By bringing Tonali into the fold, Newcastle have not only signed a star player who will likely feature every week he’s available, but they’ve also boosted their depth in midfield ranks.
As mentioned, Tonali is a multi-talented midfielder, capable of contributing effectively both in and out of possession.
Tonali chipped in with eight G/A in Serie A in 2022/23, a very healthy total for a defensive midfielder at a young age.
This first analysis image gives us some insight into his positioning in Milan’s midfield while also demonstrating his tendency to support the attack from a more advanced position.
This section has a few noteworthy parts so that we will begin with his initial positioning.
Both he and his defensive midfield partner tend to locate themselves close to the corresponding full-back to increase wide support when needed.
The pair also line up fairly close to each other, adding defensive protection for the back four.
This scenario also highlighted Tonali’s attacking tendencies and clever off-the-ball movement, which he has repeatedly shown this season.
Realising that his team have possession and space to work with on the opposite flank, he bursts forward into the final third to add to Milan’s attacking presence.
His timing of the run also makes it challenging to stay with him.
Passing range is an important factor for a midfielder, and Tonali has no trouble in that department.
As you can see from his high percentile rank in the graph from before, he is effective when it comes to dangerous and progressive passes.
He often looks to play the pass that shifts his team up a gear in their attack.
This example also highlights his tendency to drift into wide areas to support the possession.
And as you can see from the map above, progressing passing is a key part of Tonali’s game.
He has averaged 7.1 passes to the final third per 90 at Milan in 2022/23, and as you can see, a lot of them will have been longer/progressive passes.
Most of his efforts come from wider areas too, especially the passes that are fired into the penalty area.
We’ve touched upon his off-the-ball movement and tendency to make bursting runs into more attacking areas.
Of course, he needs the ability to read a situation to pull this off, and he displays that skill in the shot above and the analysis below.
Starting by offering close support to the man on the ball, he quickly realises that he isn’t much help where he is, so he takes the risk of making a run in behind the opposition defence as the ball is played across to teammate Rafael Leão…
Tonali continues his run, finding space between opposition defenders.
He receives a splendid pass from Leão and finds himself clear of opposition defenders, 1v1 with the keeper.
While he probably fancied himself to bury this particular chance, he showed that he is selfless when it matters, squaring the ball to Brahim Díaz who puts the chance away.
Simple yet extremely effective stuff from Sandro Tonali – or at least, he makes it look simple!
We end the attacking segment of this scout report with a breakdown of a goal he scored during the 2022/23 season, and the reason we have selected this for analysis is that Tonali’s involvement showcases several skills that you should expect to see in his general play next season in a Newcastle shirt.
The goal is a result of an attacking transition, with Tonali receiving the ball in the air thanks to a clearance from the back.
He shows composure and awareness to cushion the ball down to a supporting teammate before making that trademark bursting run into the final third.
It will be interesting to see if Howe consistently allows this type of run, as it does risk being overrun in midfield in the event of a turnover and transition for the opposition.
After some quick and effective build-up play from his Milan teammates, Tonali approaches the box, receives a first-time pass, and is met by an opposition defender and goalkeeper. However, he shows more composure to ignore the pressure and place the ball into the bottom corner.
This whole sequence from Tonali is somewhat reminiscent of Steven Gerrard in his heyday.
Sandro Tonali Defending
We have already established that Tonali is efficient in his defending, as evidenced by his high percentile ranking in the graph from earlier.
In 2022/23, he averaged 13.96 total duels per 90 minutes, with a win rate of 52%—this includes attacking, defensive, and aerial duels.
As we will discuss, he is also effective when it comes to recoveries and shows promising signs of fitting in at Newcastle regarding winning the ball in high areas.
His attack-minded style of play often transfers into his defensive play as well, showing good intensity and execution in high pressing.
Leaving his midfield position when it appears safe to do so, he will rush out to join the attacking unit in their high press, which was often triggered when an opposition showed signs of wanting to play out from the back.
As the map below shows, he can be effective in a high-press and a counterpress.
For this part of the analysis, we have compared Tonali’s high regains data against that of Bruno Guimarães as he is Newcastle’s go-to defensive midfielder but enjoys engaging in play higher up the pitch too.
The numbers reflect that too, with both players posting similar numbers in all three categories in the visual.
Incidentally, Sean Longstaff also posted similar numbers in the most recent season, so this could be a sign that Tonali ticks some defensive boxes for the Magpies.
Counterattacking and attacking in open spaces are popular amongst many Premier League teams, so being able to react and defend accordingly is an important trait.
The Italy U21 skipper has demonstrated that he has excellent defensive reaction/recovery ability, helped by his impressive physical skillset.
In the image above, Tonali is forced to react and sprint back after teammate Theo Hernández was beaten in a 1v1, leaving the left-back well out of position and thus, an opponent in a dangerous amount of space on the flank…
As the ball reached the wide opponent, Tonali’s quickness allowed for an effective recovery, not only catching up with the opponent but also putting in an excellent slide tackle to break up the attack.
Tonali then completed the sequence by collecting the ball and dribbling out of defence before playing a pass to a teammate in space, relieving all danger from the opposition attack.
This trait may come in handy during his time at Newcastle as Howe’s full-backs like to push into high areas and get involved with attacking phases.
Any defensive midfielder worth their salt is able to read a situation and react accordingly to intercept a pass, and yep, you guessed it, Tonali can do that too.
His awareness allows for good initial positioning, and in the instance above, he somehow manages to use his positioning to block off two passing options at the same time.
While the opponent still tries the pass into the final third, good reactions allow Tonali to shift across and steal the ball.
Can Milan replace him?
Tonali first donned the famous Milan red and black on loan from Brescia in the 2020/21 campaign.
Milan then opted to sign him permanently in the summer of 2021 for a fee of just £12.5m, a shrewd piece of business even before selling him for nearly £70m!
While Milan may look to the young talent within Serie A again to replace him, we have used xGOLD to provide three talents similar to those of other leagues around the globe.
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde– RC Strasbourg
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde actually topped XGOLD’s list of similar midfielders in the selected leagues, ranking a 96% similarity to Tonali.
The Frenchman is 24 years old, so he is similar age to Newcastle’s soon-to-be new man. With a market value of just £8.5m, Milan could make this a very smart decision, especially if they’re looking to invest cash in other areas of the squad as well.
Joey Veerman – PSV Eindhoven
24-year-old Joey Veerman has been the subject of several transfer rumours over the last two-to-three years thanks to his impressive & consistent performances for Eredivisie club PSV.
Offering a similarity rate of 93%, he will share some of the same traits and abilities as Tonali and has already proven that he is versatile, having played in a range of midfield roles.
His current market value is £13.7m, but due to the interest from other clubs in Veerman, they would likely have to pay a higher fee.
Orkun Kökçü – Feyenoord
Perhaps the most unlikely, but Turkey international Orkun Kökçü has been immensely impressive in 2022/23 and managed to get a massive move to Benfica this summer.
Nonetheless, his similarity rating to Tonali is a healthy 94%.
He has experience playing in a variety of midfield positions, so he ticks the box of being capable both on and off the ball.
The 22-year-old is understandably more expensive, with a market value of £30m, although given his recent move, Milan would probably have to pay an extortionate price.
Conclusion
If you’re a Newcastle fan, chances are you’re just about done pinching yourself at the fact that your club has pulled this deal off.
If you’re a Milan supporter, you’re probably shocked and, understandably, a little hurt that you’ve lost him.
Suppose you’re a fan of another Premier League club. In that case, you’re probably experiencing a mix of excitement for seeing such a talented player put his skills to the test in the Prem, with a hint of jealousy and the fear of your club having to face him this season!
This is a statement signing from Eddie Howe & company and could be a sign of things to come in terms of bringing in high-profile names.
