Who Everton should sign to save their underwhelming transfer window – data analysis

One Premier League club that has been active in the transfer market as of late is Everton. The club are coming off the back of a mixed season in the English top-flight, finishing in 10th place with a -1 goal difference after such a strong start which left them perching at the top of the table by match week 5. Of course, injuries and suspensions to key men Allan and James Rodríguez did not help, but plenty of clubs tended to injury crises better than the Merseyside team did last term. In fact, there is a stark contrast between this year’s transfer deals and last year’s  at least in terms of player reputation.

Andros Townsend, Asmir Begović, and Demarai Gray are not exactly the signings to send shivers down the spines of your closest competition. Now, none of these players are especially bad, and they can each be competent squad players, but Everton fans worry that these have not been signed as just that  squad players. However, Everton remain linked to some very ambitious deals, and there is proof to suggest that we can expect more business to be done before the window closes. This analysis will provide targets that Everton could sign to improve their squad.

In this data analysis, we will use statistics to find three ready-made first-team players who could join Rafael Benítez’s side and immediately become upgrades on the current roster, or provide competition to a position that needs it desperately. Based on Everton’s transfer targets, and my personal input as to which position’s need improving, we will be looking for a striker to provide Dominic Calvert-Lewin competition, a first-choice right-back, and a creative winger.

Our dataset consists of players inside Europe’s top five leagues, aged between 18-29 years old, with at least 1500 minutes played in the league last season, and we are setting a max transfer value of £50m, assimilating with their current transfer record. We are also removing players who would realistically not move to Everton, despite fitting in all these data brackets. All data used in this piece was correct as of 25/07/2021.

Centre-forward statistical analysis 

Firstly, we’ll begin with a search for a backup striker to Calvert-Lewin. The Englishman scored 16 Premier League goals last term, and 7 of them came off his head. He is a physical presence upfront, and in finding competition for him, we ought to find a player who will fit that mould too. Although, rumours linking the club to Joaquín Correa, the nimble Lazio forward, suggest Everton are looking for a different option in rotation, so let’s find a player with a different profile to DCL as well.

Leading the way for goals per 90 in our dataset is Gerard Moreno of Villareal. In the 20/21 season, Moreno scored at a rate of 0.73 in the league, overperforming a still magnificent 0.6 xG per 90. The 29-year-old Spanish forward notably scored a goal in the Europa League final against Manchester United, one of his seven strikes in the competition.

Alternatively, leading the way for xG per 90 in our dataset is Youssef En-Nesyri at 0.61. He matched this with 0.6 goals per 90 in the league for Sevilla. The 24-year-old has been linked heavily with West Ham since January after his impressive performances in the Europa League. He is now rated at £35m+ by the Spanish outfit, partly due to the length left on his current contract (4 years).

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