Overperforming clubs in football are those that achieve better results in terms of points than what would be expected based on their underlying statistics. The use of Expected Points (xPoints) has become increasingly popular among football analysts to evaluate team performances in a more objective way, taking into account the quality of the chances created and conceded.
In this data analysis, we will figure out which clubs overperform in the top five leagues this season. With similar statistics, we will discover clubs in the top five leagues that are underperforming so far this season in another analysis next week.
Methodology
One important metric to consider is xGoals, which measures the quality of a teams chances based on factors such as the location of the shot, the type of pass leading to the shot, and the defensive pressure on the shooter. Similarly, xGoals against measures the quality of the opponents chances based on the same factors. By comparing the actual goals scored and conceded by a team with their xGoals and xGoals against, we can assess whether they are over or underperforming.
For example, a team that scores more goals than their xGoals would suggest are overperforming in attack, while a team that concedes fewer goals than their xGoals against would suggest are overperforming in defence. Similarly, a team that achieves more points than their xPoints would suggest are overperforming in terms of results.
When analysing overperforming clubs in football, it is important to consider other factors that could explain their success, such as their playing style, tactics, team cohesion, and individual player performances. A team that is consistently overperforming might be relying on luck rather than skill, and their underlying statistics might regress to the mean over time.
Overperforming clubs in football can be exciting to watch, but it is important to approach their success with a critical eye and consider the underlying factors that contribute to their results. The use of advanced statistical analysis such as xPoints, xGoals, and xGoals against can help to provide a more objective and nuanced understanding of team performances.
Premier League
In the English Premier League, there are always teams that exceed expectations and overperform relative to their underlying statistics. This season, two teams that have done just that are Arsenal and Manchester United.
Arsenal, who finished 5th in the Premier League last season, have improved dramatically under the guidance of manager Mikel Arteta. However, their current points total of 72 is higher than their xPoints of 58, indicating that they have been somewhat fortunate to accumulate as many points as they have. Similarly, their 70 goals scored is way higher than their xGoals of 55.88, suggesting that they may have been extremely clinical in front of goal.
Despite this, Arsenals underlying statistics are still impressive. They have conceded just 27 goals, which is in line with their xGoals against of 27.6, indicating that they have been defensively solid throughout the season. Additionally, their possession rate of 60.5% is the second-highest in the league, while their PPDA (passes allowed per defensive action) of 8.51 is the lowest, indicating that they have been successful in pressing their opponents and regaining possession.
Manchester United, on the other hand, have had a more inconsistent season, but their current points total of 50 is higher than their xPoints of 36.3, indicating that they have also been somewhat fortunate in terms of results. Their 41 goals scored is also slightly higher than their xGoals of 38.45, although their 37 goals conceded is in line with their xGoals against of 43.25, suggesting that their defensive performances have been consistent with their underlying statistics.
Despite their
