Raphaël Guerreiro is a well known name in European football, the Portuguese completed a move from FC Lorient to Borussia Dortmund in 2016 and since then has showed both consistency and improvement.
Guerreiro has played a big part in Dortmund’s strategy and success, performing at the highest level in different roles.
The left full-back/wing-back is involved in a lot of different moments of the game and that often makes for an interesting statistical profile.
In this Raphaël Guerreiro data analysis we will use statistics to analyse the Portuguese’s output, as well as compare him to other players from his main position in the European top divisions.
The Data should allow us to see the difference between his statistical profile and the other players, reflecting Guerreiro’s versatility and ability to fulfil different roles.
Data Analysis Methodology
For this analysis our data pool will be all full-backs and wing-backs from the top 5 European leagues since those are Raphaël Guerreiro’s main positions.
Data was filtered to show players with at least 600 minutes played this season in order to make the analysis a more realistic one, leaving us with a data pool of 351 players.
Comparing Raphaël Guerreiro with the mentioned pool of players will allow us to build his statistical profile as well as to see the impact his versatility has on his statistical output.
We will analyse key metrics for the mentioned positions that reflect the modern role of a full-back and wing-back, covering defending, ball progression, passing, chance creation and goal contribution.
Raphaël Guerreiro Player Profile
Raphaël Guerreiro is a 26 year-old Portuguese left-back that also plays as a wing-back or midfielder on the left side.
Like it was already mentioned, he is a very versatile player that can play in different positions but also interpret and perform in different roles within the same position.
In the 2019/2020 season Guerreiro mostly played as a left wing-back in Dortmund’s 3-4-3 system, although early in the season he played as a full back due to Lucien Favre’s tactics.
In the image below we can see Raphael Guerreiro’s heat map for this season, highlighting the areas of the pitch where the Portuguese has the most actions therefore showing us the spaces where he mostly operates.
Raphaël Guerreiro Heat Map
The concentration of actions on the left side of the pitch shown by the heat map above is nothing surprising as it perfectly corresponds to Guerreiro’s main positions.
The spread of the heat between the two halves of the pitch also reflects both Raphaël’s positions and roles showing how the 26-year-old is capable of taking responsibility for the left side of the pitch.
The former Lorient player shows great technique in pretty much all dimensions: passing, shooting, ball control and crossing are all things he is able to execute very well.
Apart from the technical side, Guerreiro is also an intelligent player capable of reading the game and acting accordingly and that is of great importance both defensively and in attack.
On the physical side, Raphaël is not the strongest or tallest of players but he has good balance, agility, and decent speed both with and without the ball.
We will now analyse different metrics that cover different aspects of the game to determine Guerreiro’s statical profile and compare him with other wing-backs/full-backs from the top 5 European leagues.
Raphaël Guerreiro Defensive Stats
Starting with the defensive metrics, this next scatter plot measures three key metrics to evaluate a player’s defensive output: percentage of defensive duels won, percentage of aerial duels won, and PAdj interceptions.
Possession adjusted metrics are is an attempt to attenuate the differences in defensive stats seen between players in teams with more and less possession of the ball.
Full-backs Across Europe’s Top 5 Leagues – Key Defensive Data
An analysis of this first scatter plot shows us one strong point of Raphaël Guerreiro’s style of play but also one of his weaknesses.
Looking at the graphic we can see how the Portuguese international ranks well above average when it comes to defensive duels won with a win rate of 70.80%.
This shows Guerreiro is strong in defensive duels and able to tackle opponents quite often.
In fact, across the entire data pool, only 7 players have a higher win rate when it comes to defensive duels with Santiago Arias from Atlético Madrid ranking first in this metric with 76.54%.
Looking at PAdj interceptions, Raphaël’s numbers are not as impressive but they are definitely not bad.
With an average of 5.61 PAdj interceptions per 90, the 26-year-old falls just below the average of 6, a number that shows he can improve but also that reflects the offensive nature of his usual role.
Finally, looking at the percentage of aerial duels won, we can easily spot that this is the aspect where Raphaël Guerreiro has less success.
At 1,70m, the former Lorient player is not very tall and that certainly has a big influence on his low win rate when it comes to aerial duels, falling well below the average, with only 22.58% wins of his aerial duels.
Knowing Guerreiro’s defensive output, we will now look at a map that shows us the areas of the pitch where he mostly recovers the ball.
This will allow us to have a better understanding of his defensive behaviour as well as to know which are the ways Guerreiro recovers the ball more often.
Raphaël Guerreiro Ball Recoveries Map
Looking at the map above we naturally see that most of Guerreiro’s ball recoveries are on the left side of the pitch.
However, it is interesting to see how high in the pitch the recoveries happen and what type of recovery it is.
The Portuguese gets the ball back both in his half and in the opposition’s half.
In the latter case however, most of his recoveries are through counter-pressing, reflecting Borussia Dortmund’s style of play and desire to win the ball back as high and as soon as possible.
Being used to play in high pressing tactics, Guerreiro is effective with his pressing and, the already mentioned ability to win duels also allows him to recover the ball more often.
Raphaël Guerreiro Passing Stats
In this next section we will measure the full-backs’ passing abilities by creating a scatter plot with two metrics: passes per 90 and passing accuracy%.
These metrics will allow us to see which players see more of the ball and execute more passes as well as the ones who that with the better accuracy.
Full-backs Across Europe’s Top 5 Leagues – Key Passing Data
Represented by the yellow dot, Guerreiro really stands out in the analysed metrics.
The Portuguese averages 69.71 passes per 90 with a 89.13% completion rate showing just how involved he is in the Borussia Dortmund’s build-up play.
He appears with a similar profile to João Cancelo and Benjamin Pavard, two players that play in possession-based teams and also participate a lot in ball circulation and build-up play.
This is a key aspect of Raphaël Guerreiro’s style of play as he is much more involved in passing and positional play as opposed to is fellow wing back from the other side this season , Achraf Hakimi, who is a more vertical and explosive player that likes to receive the ball into space.
Raphaël Guerreiro Ball Progression Stats
In this section we will take a look at the full-backs’ ball progression capabilities by creating a scatter plot with the following metrics: progressive passes per 90 and progressive runs per 90 on both axes.
We will then analyse forward passes per 90 to passes into the final third per 90 ratio to determine the players’ ability to progress the ball directly to the final third and see how often they attempt this type of action.
Full-backs Across Europe’s Top 5 Leagues – Key Ball Progression Data
Again represented by the yellow dot, Guerreiro appears in the right upper quadrant of the graphic with numbers above average on both analysed metrics.
Starting with progressive passes, the Portuguese international averages 10.94 of those per 90 which puts him with similar numbers to Dani Carvajal for example.
Although Raphaël is not amongst the players with the highest number of progressive passes, his numbers are quite good, with an above-average 2.37 progressive runs per 90.
This shows that the 26-year-old is able to progress the ball up the pitch both ways and we can see the difference between him and Hakimi once more as the Moroccan averages much more progressive runs per 90 than him (3.64).
The next map shows us the areas of the pitch where Raphaël Guerreiro performs his progressive actions the most, allowing us to identify trends related to where the Dortmund’s left full-back tries to get the ball to.
Guerreiro Progressive Passes & Runs Map
An analysis of the map shows us how Guerreiro has a lot more progressive passes than progressive runs but also that most of the latter are strictly in wide areas.
On the other hand, Guerreiro’s progressive passes come mostly from and to the wide areas but some of them are directed to the inside of the penalty box.
This shows that the former Lorient left-back doesn’t attempt to carry the ball to those areas himself and prefers to deliver it through passes.
In this next scatter plot we will take a look at the amount of forward passes per 90 and the percentage of those that are made to the final third, the goal is to see how often a player tries to find a teammate in the final third with a pass in relation to the amount of times he plays forward.
In other words, we will try to see which players take more risks when playing progressively and, as a consequence, create more danger for the opposition by breaking their lines.
Full-backs Across Europe’s Top 5 Leagues – Final Third Passes
An analysis of the graphic above shows us how Raphaël Guerreiro is a player that executes a lot of forward passes even though only a few are made into the final third.
The Portuguese averages 22.80 forward passes per 90 which ranks him 11th in this metric
However, only 30.96% of those are made to the final third which is a percentage below the average of 35.62%.
This shows that Guerreiro likes to play forward but prefers to play shorter passes and try combinations in order to get the ball to the final third instead of trying a pass that gets it there directly.
Raphaël Guerreiro Chance Creation Stats
In this section we will analyse the amount of chances created by the Europe’s top full-backs as well as their creativity to play passes into dangerous areas.
The first scatter plot shows us two metrics that serve the purpose of measuring the ability of the players to play dangerous passes or crosses.
Dangerous passes per 90 is a metric created by adding passes into the final third per 90, deep completions per 90 and passes into the penalty area per 90
Dangerous crosses per 90 is a metric created by adding crosses into the goalie box per 90 and deep completed crosses per 90.
Full-backs Across Europe’s Top 5 Leagues – Dangerous Chances Data
The scatter plot above allows us to draw multiple conclusions.
First of all, we can see how Raphaël Guerreiro is well above average when it comes to dangerous passes per 90 (11.53), reinforcing once again his great passing ability.
The Portuguese high rank in this metric, when seen side by side with his low number of dangerous crosses per 90 (0.59), shows us that Guerreiro tries to get the ball to dangerous areas through passing a lot more than through crossing.
The 26-year-old is also more successful this way, which is consistent with his already mentioned profile.
Furthermore, seeing Guerreiro with a similar profile to Sergi Roberto and Danilo in this graphic shows us how he resembles a midfielder statistically as both mentioned players can also play in the midfield.
The next scatter plot attempts to measure the ability players have to create chances as well as their deliveries into the opposition’s penalty area using the metrics passes into the penalty box per 90 and chances created per 90.
Chances created per 90 is a metric achieved by adding key passes per 90 and assists per 90.
Full-backs Across Europe’s Top 5 Leagues – Key Chance Creation Data
An analysis of the graphic above shows us that Raphaël Guerreiro doesn’t create many chances for Borussia Dortmund nor does he play a lot of passes to the penalty area.
The Portuguese averages 2.99 passes into the penalty area per 90 and creates 0.41 chances per 90.
If we compare this stats with Hakimi’s, his right full-back teammate, the difference in the roles and style of play appears once again.
We can say that Guerreiro is more important in progressing the ball to the final third and less involved in the final pass and chance creation.
Raphaël Guerreiro Goal Contribution Stats
Last but not least, we will take a look at the full-backs’ raw contribution to their team’s goals.
The scatter plot below has the metrics goal contribution per 90 and xG contribution per 90 in both axes.
Goal contribution per 90 is a metric achieved by adding assists per 90 Goals per 90.
xG contribution per 90 is achieved by adding xG per 90 and xA per 90.
Full-backs Across Europe’s Top 5 Leagues – Key Goal Contribution Data
Raphaël Guerreiro appears in the right upper quadrant of the scatter plot, meaning he is above average both analysed metrics.
With a 0.34 goal contribution per 90 that surpasses his 0.22 xG contribution per 90, Guerreiro has a similar profile to Bukayo Saka or Andy Robertson, two players that contribute a lot to their respective team’s offensive output.
Despite the low numbers Guerreiro displayed in terms of chance creation, the Dortmund’s left full-back ends up having a very good offensive output having scored eight goals and provided five assists for Borussia Dortmund this season.
Conclusion
All in all, Raphaël Guerreiro is a versatile player that excels at passing and ball progression while also being consistent at defending.
Despite his low numbers in terms of chance creation, the Portuguese international has a good amount of goals for a player of his positions and a decent amount of assists.
Below is a small statistical profile that shows Guerreiro’s percentile ranks when compared to other players in his position from the top 5 European leagues that allows for a clear picture of some of his strengths and weaknesses.
In the end, the analysis showed us how Raphaël Guerreiro plays a big role in his team’s build-up play, passing and progressing the ball up the pitch.
His statistical profile has a lot of similarities with one from a central midfielder and perhaps that’s why he has played in that position sometimes for Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga and the Champions League.
