Japanese centre-back Ko Itakura is once again being linked with a move to Ange Postecoglou’s Celtic.
A target last summer during Postecoglou’s first transfer window, Itakura is believed to be back on the Parkhead club’s radar following a successful loan spell in the Bundesliga 2 with Schalke 04.
Schalke 04 has an option to buy the defender on loan from Manchester City.
Still, it is reported that they will be unable to afford the €5 million fee despite winning a promotion back to the Bundesliga.
That has alerted Celtic again, as well as a host of other clubs who now look set to compete for the Japanese international signed by Man City from Kawasaki Frontale in 2019.
In this data analysis, we will look at Itakura’s number from his spell in Germany in detail.
We will focus particularly on his suitability as a ball-carrying centre-back, which is believed to be the profile of a player Celtic are looking to recruit this summer.
It will be analysed using statistics to determine whether Itakura would be a solid signing for the Bhoys.
Ko Itakura Tactical Analysis
We’ll start with several scatter graphs to give an initial picture of Itakura’s performance in Bundesliga 2 last season.
Then, we will use a percentile-rank pizza chart to examine Itakura’s data more deeply.
The dataset used for the initial scatter graphs and the pizza chart includes players who played at least 1,000 minutes, predominantly at centre-back, in last season’s Bundesliga 2.
Tableau creates the scatter graphs, and Python converts the per 90 numbers into percentile ranks for the pizza chart.
Ko Itakura Passing ability
First, we’ll look at the scatter graphs for passing, one of the key attributes that Celtic will prioritise when recruiting for the centre-back position this summer.
In this first scatter graph, we can see passes per 90 and overall passing accuracy, %.
Although this doesn’t tell us too much about Itakura’s profile at this stage, it can give an initial impression of how he performs in possession.
Itakura’s 46.7 passes per 90 were just above average for centre-back in the Bundesliga 2 last season.
He also had the top passing accuracy rate, 91.0%. At first glance, Itakura appears to be a player who is secure in possession.
We can examine some more specific passing metrics to learn more about how he performs on the ball.
Here, we can see Itakura attempted a below-average number of progressive passes per 90, 5.7, and passes to the final third, 4.2, last season, which may be a bit lower than expected.
Ko Itakura Ball-carrying ability
The attribute we will look at next is ball-carrying.
For Celtic, the ability to carry the ball out from the back is key, both domestically to disrupt low blocks by carrying into attacking zones and in European competition, where they are likely to face higher, better-organised pressing.
Itakura scored above average for a centre-back in Bundesliga 2 last season on both metrics here, with 1 progressive run per 90 and 0.8 dribbles per 90.
Compared to Celtic’s two first-choice centre-backs last season, Itakura’s dribbles attempted per 90 is double that of Cameron Carter-Vickers (0.4) and Carl Starfelt (0.31).
Ko Itakura Defensive ability
Given the Scottish Premiership‘s physical nature, Itakura must also be robust when out of possession.
To understand how he performed defensively last season, we will examine his success in defensive and aerial duels, as well as his positioning in shots blocked and PAdj interceptions.
Ko Itakura Defensive duels 
For defensive duels, Itakura was involved in just under an average number per 90, 5.6.
His success rate was just above average at 70.4%.
Ko Itakura Aerial duels 
For aerial duels, Itakura was involved in a lower than average per 90, 3.7 while his percentage win was below average at 51.9%
Ko Itakura Positioning
Itakura made 8.08 PAdj Interceptions per 90, above average for centre back in the Bundesliga 2 last season.
On shots blocked, he made a below-average number per 90, 0.47.
Ko Itakura Percentile rank
Looking at Itakura’s percentile ranks in the pizza chart, and we can delve a bit deeper into some of the traits we have seen in the scatters.
First, considering the possession section, we again see him score highly for carries, a combination of the progressive runs and dribbles metrics.
Again, we see his low scores for the number of attempted progressive passes and passes to the final third.
Interestingly, though, we see his percentile rank for his accuracy scores for both is above average.
Particularly his passes to the final third accuracy % score, which is above the 75th percentile mark.
Coupled with his impressive accuracy percentage for all passes, we can see that Itakura is often accurate when he attempts this kind of progressive, line-breaking pass.
His lower numbers for the volume of these passes could be accounted for when Schalke 04’s style from last season is considered.
Despite winning the title, Schalke 04 did not look to dominate the ball, with five teams in the league having a higher average possession than their 52.4% per game.
They also only totalled a few more passes per 90, 379.25, than the league average, 375.19.
If Itakura were to move to Celtic, he would likely be on the ball more domestically than he was at Schalke 04.
Looking again at the chart, we can see around average scores for defensive metrics, except his positioning, which is just under the 75th percentile mark.
He is not involved in a huge number of duels, most likely due to his good positioning, which means he does not have to engage as often.
When he does have to engage, he is above average for % of successful defensive duels but has a low score for % of successful aerial duels.
Given the physical nature of most strikers in the Scottish Premiership, the aerial duel success rate could be a concern.
Still, if he makes his loan move permanent, he would likely be paired with Carl Starfelt or Cameron Carter-Vickers, who are more dominant in the air.
Starfelt won 59.8% of his aerial duels in last season’s Scottish Premiership, while Carter-Vickers won an impressive 66.2% of his.
Finally, on attacking, we can see Itakura offered a decent goal threat for Schalke 04 last season.
Although he overperformed on his expected goal contributions, he still ranks around average for this metric.
His four goals throughout the campaign gave him a more impressive rank for goal contributions.
Conclusion
Itakura’s numbers may not have stood out at first glance, certainly in terms of the ball-playing profile Celtic are looking for.
However, by digging deeper into his data and considering Schalke 04’s playing style last season, we can see exactly why Celtic is targeting him.
As well as a progressive centre-back option, Itakura will also offer his next club flexibility, having played in central defensive midfield on a few occasions for Schalke 04 last season.
That flexibility to move into the ‘6’ role will appeal to Celtic in particular, as it would give them another option in a position where they have been heavily reliant on their captain, Callum McGregor.
Having a more defensive but still more than capable on-the-ball alternative could allow McGregor to move forward into one of the two free ‘8’ roles in Postecoglou’s midfield.
With a final decision yet to be made on whether Cameron Carter-Vickers returns and uncertainty regarding other centre-backs, particularly Christopher Jullien, we know Celtic will undoubtedly bring in at least one, if not two, for this position.
If Ko Itakura is one of those brought in, he will represent another smart recruitment move by Postecoglou’s side.
