Austrian Bundesliga Title Race 2024/2025: The Numbers Behind A Tight Battle – Data Analysis

With just three rounds to go in the season, the Austrian Bundesliga is home to one of the most exciting and closest title races in European and world football this season.

Only four points separate the top four sides, with defending champions Sturm Graz narrowly leading the pack ahead of Austria Wien, Wolfsberger AC, and Red Bull Salzburg, in that order.

Last season saw Salzburgs decade-long monopoly on the league come to an end.

Sturm won only their fourth-ever Austrian championship and first in 13 years, in what proved to be a close title race right until the end of the campaign.

But this season has gone one further as both clubs are once again in the mix for the title.

At the same time, Austria Wien and Wolfsberger are also part of this thrilling race, with the former looking to become the Österreichischer Meister for the first time in a dozen years while the latter is seeking to claim their first crown in club history.

But what could separate these four sides between now and May 25th, by which a champion will definitely be crowned?

This data analysis will examine the teams performances across different metrics and data points, both in the regular season and in the championship round of the campaign.

Austrian Bundesliga 2024/2025 Season So Far

Before diving into the data, its important to lay out how the Bundesliga in Austria operates in its current format, particularly for readers who arent familiar or follow the league closely.

The division comprises 12 teams who play each other twice, home and away, over 22 rounds for the first part of the campaign, which is considered the regular season.

The league is then split into two, a championship and a relegation round, with the top six and bottom six, respectively, making up those two groupings.

All clubs points totals from the regular season will be cut in half before the final ten rounds of the season.

The top six fight for the Austrian championship and European qualifying berths, while the rest of the league battles to maintain their top-flight status and, for the best two-placed sides, places in the leagues end-of-season Conference League play-offs.

After 22 rounds, Sturm Graz and Austria Wien were tied at 46 points, with Salzburg and Wolfsberg in third and fourth place with 38 and 36 points, respectively.

Rapid Wien had 34 points and Blau-Weiß Linz 33 to round out the top six, but both sides failed to keep pace with the four sides ahead of them in the table in the first seven rounds of the championship round.

As we go into the final three matchdays of the season, the distance between those four is just four points, and the title is very much up for grabs.

But who has the edge going into these final weeks?

Lets look at what the data suggests, first from the overall season and then breaking it further down to just the championship round.

Austrian Bundesliga Goals vs xG

The first data point well look at is the teams offensive production, both in terms of goals scored and expected goals (xG) across the 29 rounds, and how they compare and contrast with each other.

Sturm led the league in scoring with 60 goals, an average of 2.07 goals per game, despite losing their top marksman, Mika Biereth, to Monaco in January.