With just three rounds to go in the season, the Austrian Bundesliga is home to one of the most exciting and closest title races in European and world football this season.
Only four points separate the top four sides, with defending champions Sturm Graz narrowly leading the pack ahead of Austria Wien, Wolfsberger AC, and Red Bull Salzburg, in that order.
Last season saw Salzburg’s decade-long monopoly on the league come to an end.
Sturm won only their fourth-ever Austrian championship and first in 13 years, in what proved to be a close title race right until the end of the campaign.
But this season has gone one further as both clubs are once again in the mix for the title.
At the same time, Austria Wien and Wolfsberger are also part of this thrilling race, with the former looking to become the Österreichischer Meister for the first time in a dozen years while the latter is seeking to claim their first crown in club history.
But what could separate these four sides between now and May 25th, by which a champion will definitely be crowned?
This data analysis will examine the teams’ performances across different metrics and data points, both in the regular season and in the championship round of the campaign.
Austrian Bundesliga 2024/2025 Season So Far
Before diving into the data, it’s important to lay out how the Bundesliga in Austria operates in its current format, particularly for readers who aren’t familiar or follow the league closely.
The division comprises 12 teams who play each other twice, home and away, over 22 rounds for the first part of the campaign, which is considered the regular season.
The league is then split into two, a championship and a relegation round, with the top six and bottom six, respectively, making up those two groupings.
All clubs’ points totals from the regular season will be cut in half before the final ten rounds of the season.
The top six fight for the Austrian championship and European qualifying berths, while the rest of the league battles to maintain their top-flight status and, for the best two-placed sides, places in the league’s end-of-season Conference League play-offs.
After 22 rounds, Sturm Graz and Austria Wien were tied at 46 points, with Salzburg and Wolfsberg in third and fourth place with 38 and 36 points, respectively.
Rapid Wien had 34 points and Blau-Weiß Linz 33 to round out the top six, but both sides failed to keep pace with the four sides ahead of them in the table in the first seven rounds of the championship round.
As we go into the final three matchdays of the season, the distance between those four is just four points, and the title is very much up for grabs.
But who has the edge going into these final weeks?
Let’s look at what the data suggests, first from the overall season and then breaking it further down to just the championship round.
Austrian Bundesliga Goals vs xG
The first data point we’ll look at is the teams’ offensive production, both in terms of goals scored and expected goals (xG) across the 29 rounds, and how they compare and contrast with each other.
Sturm led the league in scoring with 60 goals, an average of 2.07 goals per game, despite losing their top marksman, Mika Biereth, to Monaco in January.
He’s been banging the goals in Ligue 1 ever since.
Their xG, in comparison, is just 1.77, meaning they’ve outperformed their expected goals rate across the season overall by nearly half a goal, which is an impressive feat.
Interestingly, second to their offence is Wolfsberg’s, the only one of the four teams that has never been an Austrian champion before.
They have similarly outperformed their xG of 1.64 with 1.93 goals per game, for a total of 56 overall.
From there, Salzburg is quite a bit away from the other two sides.
Salzburg scored 45 and Austria Wien 42, scoring over 10 to 15 goals less than the league’s most potent pair of clubs.
In addition, both sides have actually underperformed compared to their xG, with Salzburg netting 1.55 per game from a 1.86 xG, while Austria Wien’s is just 1.45 from a low 1.36 xG.
While we’ll examine all of these sides’ more recent numbers later on.
If we’re looking across the entire campaign, it’s interesting to note that Salzburg actually have the best xG of the four yet are least advantaged in this title picture as the team sitting in fourth position.
On the flip side, Austria Wien have a considerably worse xG rate than the others.
Still, they are in second place and only three points off Sturm Graz, whom they’ve beaten twice in the championship round and gone undefeated against in five outings this season, if we include the domestic cup.
Austrian Bundesliga Shots On Target Per Game
Now, let’s examine those above numbers more closely by examining how the clubs have performed in terms of generating shots and how many were on target, both of which obviously correlate to their goal tallies and xG rates.
In line with the previous data viz, Salzburg had the highest xG among these teams, and as we can see, they also generated the most shots, and by quite some distance.
Their average of 15.83 shots per game supersedes that of second-best Sturm, whose average is 13.34, while Wolfsberg’s is 12.76 and Austria Wien’s is 10.93.
But while Salzburg has generated more opportunities per game on average, the percentage of shots that have been on target actually differs minimally between all of the teams across the season.
Salzburg have a slight advantage there with 5.31 attempts on frame, compared to Wolfsberg’s 5.00, Sturm’s 4.66, and Austria’s 4.00.
However, Wolfsberg has the best percentage in shots on goal at 39.19%, nearly three per cent higher than Austria Wien’s 36.59%.
Sturm Graz’s is 34.88%, and Salzburg is last at 33.55%.
This already seems to identify that while Salzburg may be the best at creating goalscoring opportunities, they’re the least efficient in comparison to how much they actually create.
But let’s keep digging further to see what more we can learn.
Austrian Bundesliga Set-Pieces Per Game
Next up is a bar chart that displays the metrics of the teams involved when it comes to set plays, particularly free kicks and corners, to examine whether any of them have a potential advantage in this area that could benefit them in these final rounds.
Again, supporting the previous data points, Salzburg lead the ranks when it comes to corners per game with six, while Austria Wien are next in line at 5.31, and Sturm and Wolfsberg each have 5.10.
Sturm have the slight advantage here of creating more opportunities from corner situations, with an average of 2.14 shots from them.
Wolfsberg also average over two at 2.03, and Salzburg are at 1.90, with Austria Wien at 1.86.
Then, with free kicks, it should be noted that they become trickier to measure.
The data does not specify the types of free kicks and what areas they occurred in on the field, so it’s difficult to know how many realistically could have led to chances at goal.
Hence, the percentages are low when it comes to on-target attempts for all sides, but Sturm holds a slight advantage here as well, with 1.45 shots on goal from an average of 4.14 free kicks.
Wolfsberg are second with 1.03 strikes at goal from 3.28 free kicks per game, while Austria Wien are third with 0.66 from 2.90 and Salzburg last with 0.55 from 2.31.
While again, the data isn’t exact, particularly with free kicks, it does seem that overall, the two highest-scoring teams in the league are more effective from dead-ball situations, something they can perhaps utilise in the last three rounds to aid their cause.
Austrian Bundesliga PPDA Stats
It’s not just the offence that’s important to winning a league championship; defence is also, and arguably even more so if we think of the famous quote, “Defence wins championships.”
One data metric considered crucial in the modern game when analysing a team’s defensive approach and mindset is their PPDA, which stands for passes per defensive action.
Having a higher or lower PPDA paints a picture of a team’s defensive style, the intensity with which they play when out of possession, and whether they press high, sit deep, or somewhere in between.
A lower value is indicative of a team that defends more proactively.
Between these four title contenders, Wolfsberg have had the considerably highest PPDA of 11.78 throughout the season, meaning they allow the opposition the most time on the ball before pressuring them of these teams.
Austria Wien’s is much lower, at 9.90, while Sturm’s is 9.00, but Salzburg has the lowest PPDA value, with 8.42; therefore, we can say Salzburg are the most aggressive pressing side of the four.
This is not really surprising, perhaps, given that part of the Red Bull brand of football is predicated on high intensity and aggressive pressing, which has been a hallmark of their sides for years, including Salzburg.
Austrian Bundesliga Championship Round 2024/2025
Now that we’ve seen how these sides have fared and compared across these different metrics over the whole league campaign, it’s time to look at how the data looks if we break it down to just the games in the championship round so far and see if there are any key differences as of late in any of their title quests.
Austrian Bundesliga Championship Round – Goals Vs xG
Earlier, we noted that Sturm were the league’s top-scoring outfit while Salzburg had the best xG, but if we look at just the last seven games, there are a few interesting differences to note.
While Austria Wien have continued to be the least prolific team of the four, while Sturm, without Biereth, have had a sharp decline in their offensive output.
Their goal average has dropped to just over one per game from the 2.07 it had been if we looked at the overall season, while their xG has also taken a slight hit.
On the other hand, Wolfsberg and Salzburg have been head and shoulders above both and neck-and-neck with each other.
In the Austrian Bundesliga Championship Round, they scored 13 and 12 goals, respectively, slightly outperforming their xG, which is similar.
The difference between them and the other pair in this area has become pretty stark in recent weeks.
Even though they are still worse positioned to actually win the title as things stand, it’s something that puts a feather in their caps in this close race.
Austrian Bundesliga Championship Round – Shots On Target Per Game
It’s a similar story if we look at the shots and on-target attempts as well, with Wolfsberg and Salzburg generating a much higher volume of opportunities in front of goal than the other challengers.
That being said, none of the teams involved are turning more than a third of the chances they create into putting them on target, but perhaps the one who can find that golden touch more consistently could be the one that positions themselves to win the championship on May 25th.
Austrian Bundesliga Championship Round – Set-Pieces Per Game
As far as set pieces go, it’s similar to the previous viz we saw, with Sturm getting the most free-kicks and Salzburg the most corners per game on average.
Sturm still retain the most balanced threat in this area, with nearly two chances per game conjured up from both corners and free kicks, while the other teams have been similarly efficient in turning their corners into chances.
It is hard to predict whether Sturm’s advantages here will help them win the title, but having that little bit extra in their deliveries could ultimately make the difference.
Austrian Bundesliga Championship Round – PPDA Stats
Lastly, when looking at the PPDA of all four outfits, little has changed for Sturm and Salzburg, whose numbers look similar to before across the entire season.
But there’s actually been a notable decrease for Austria Wien, along with an increase for Wolfsberg.
This suggests that the latter are prioritising their defensive organisation more and playing for results rather than looking to press high and commit bodies forward, while the former are trying to use high pressure as a key part of their title bid.
While there is no right or wrong way to approach the game in general, and especially so in a tight battle like this title race, only time will tell which strategy will work best for any of these sides as we enter the final rounds of what has been an exciting year in Austria.
Conclusion
So, who has the edge in this Austrian Bundesliga title race?
Offensively, Sturm Graz have lost steam since losing their top scorer in the winter transfer window, while Wolfsberg and Salzburg have been in form lately when it comes to finding the back of the net regularly.
Sturm still pose a bit more of a threat from set pieces, which could work to their advantage.
With Sturm-Salzburg looming on Friday, we look forward to the first of three remaining games directly between these four teams, who are all gunning for Austria’s top prize to end the season with.
One thing is for sure: it promises to be a rollercoaster of a ride in the remaining matchdays.
