Japan have appeared in every FIFA World Cup following their debut at the tournament in 1998.
This year’s competition sees Japan enter the seventh FIFA World Cup of their history.
They’ll hope to get at least as far as the Round of 16, which remains the deepest they’ve gone in the competition, a stage that they’ve reached on three occasions (2002, 2010, and 2018).
However, getting out of the group will be no easy feat for Hajime Moriyasu’s side, as their group includes two European giants of this competition who’ve enjoyed great success in the not-so-distant past — Spain (winners in 2010) and Germany (winners in 2014).
Japan boast a squad with exciting players that could cause problems for Spain and Germany (along with Costa Rica, who are also allocated to Group E).
Celtic striker Kyogo Furuhashi has been in fine goalscoring form for his club this season and, at the time of writing, remains the only Hoops player to have scored for his side in the UEFA Champions League this season.
Bundesliga duo Daichi Kamada and Genki Haraguchi could represent good midfield options for Moriyasu, with Kamada enjoying a fantastic season with reigning UEFA Europa League champions Eintracht Frankfurt and Haraguchi playing for underdog Bundesliga leaders (at the time of writing) Union Berlin.
Meanwhile, though Monaco’s Takumi Minamino hasn’t set the world alight with his new club so far this term, the attacker has been an integral part of his national team under Moriyasu and should be expected to play a key role in this tournament.
While Japan are damaged on the injury front, with Borussia Mönchengladbach centre-back Ko Itakura looking doubtful for the World Cup, along with VfL Bochum attacker Takuma Asano, they still have plenty of promising talent to offer.
They could get a result from Spain and/or Germany, which would make Group E very interesting, depending on other results.
This tactical analysis piece will examine Moriyasu’s Japan squad through a team-focused scout report.
We’ll look at the team’s strategy and tactics in possession, out of possession, and in transitional phases via analysis of their recent games and World Cup qualification clashes.
Additionally, we’ll delve into the squad selection options that Moriyasu has available to him in all areas of the pitch before going into some detail on Kamada, who we’ve identified as being Japan’s key player for the tournament, and finally, providing our tournament prediction for the Samurai Blue.
Predicted Starting Xi
We’ll kick off our analysis by looking at our predicted 26-man squad and strongest starting XI for Japan at the World Cup.
At the time of writing, Japan’s official 26-man squad has not been released, nor has their provisional squad been publicly released.
However, in Figure 1, we can see an age profile of a predicted 26-man squad that we don’t believe will be too far off the squad that Moriyasu decides to take with him to Qatar.
Japan’s biggest injury doubt is Itakura, who looks touch-and-go for the tournament at present.
As a result, we’ve left him out of our 26-man squad.
More than half of the squad (14) lies within or just on the border of the peak-age range (the pink strip on the graph), with four players lying in the ‘youth’ range and the remaining eight players falling into the post-peak ‘experienced’ range.
Itakura (25) and Asano (27) would add to the peak-age range players if they’re fit and Moriyasu wants to select them.
From that 26-man squad, we’ve selected the predicted strongest starting XI in figure 2.
We’ll discuss the individual sections of Japan’s squad in greater detail later in this scout report but for us, they’re definitely strongest in the forward department in terms of depth.
At the same time, they’ve got plenty of decent options in midfield too.
With Itakura’s injury, they are slightly weaker at centre-back, while their starting full-backs are 32-year-old Sakai and 36-year-old Nagatomo.
Alongside captain Yoshida (34), this makes for an experienced backline but also one that’s got a lot of mileage.
Still, we deem these to be the best options and their respective backup options are decent in terms of quality, along with falling in the peak-age range or below.
Attacking Phase
Figure 3 provides an overview of Japan’s attacking game.
The data for this radar was taken from their games over the last calendar year, and the percentile ranks shown compare them with the other 31 teams competing in Qatar this year.
We must remember that the quality of competition Japan have faced over the last calendar year will largely differ from the quality they’ll mostly come up against in the World Cup, and this shouldn’t be used as a preview of what to expect from them in the World Cup or a measure of how exactly they stack up with their competition in this tournament.
However, we can still gain plenty of knowledge on their playing style and intent with the ball from this radar.
The most significant data from this radar, for us, in terms of Japan’s playing style is the passing data.
They play very few long passes per 90 but plenty of forward passes.
Japan are quite a direct team with the ball but they don’t go long much and don’t generally use a target man striker.
When they do go long, it’s all about winning the second ball via their subsequent press or playing someone in behind the opposition’s backline, as opposed to getting somebody on the ball to hold it up or win the aerial duel.
Again, this Japan side is very direct.
While their possession percentage has typically been high over the last calendar year, I wouldn’t expect them to spend a lot of time on the ball in this tournament, especially against the likes of Spain and Germany.
They thrive in
Figure 4 shows an example of Japan’s typical shape in the build-up phase.
The centre-back duo will split wide on either side of the goalkeeper, while the two holding midfielders will provide options ahead of them, slightly more centrally and closer together than the centre-backs.
This creates kind of a 3-2 shape (including the goalkeeper) from goal-kicks, with the full-backs pushing high, getting in line with the attacking midfielder in this phase and the wingers moving into the half-spaces on either side of the striker as play proceeds, though generally staying wider at the start.
During this phase and the ball progression phase, it’s common to see Japan’s holding midfield duo stagger (one drops deeper while the other sits higher) to give their teammates better passing options and make it more difficult for the opposition to mark them.
We see an example of this in figure 5, as play moves on from figure 4.
Japan are typically comfortable building out from the back via short passes.
They are extremely patient in the build-up and ball progression phases, often almost exuding a sense of trying to bate the opposition out, asking them to press higher to try and dispossess them, with the aim of exposing the space behind their midfielders and defence as it opens up with the press getting higher and more intense.
This is a common tactic deployed by Moriyasu’s Japan that we’d look out for at the World Cup.
They’ll try to bate the opposition out with patient passing at the back to create an opening to progress through them into space behind the midfield once they get aggressive.
The defenders’ patience, decision-making, composure, vision and technical passing quality are all key to ensuring this works, along with their attackers’ movement into the space behind the opposition’s midfield.
This can create opportunities for Japan to quickly break at the opposition’s weakened backline and create overloads, similar to how they’d attack in transition.
This kind of attack is when and where Moriyasu’s side are at their best in possession.
Additionally, watch out for Japan’s tendency to overload one side of the pitch with all but one of their players positioned inside the opposition’s half.
That remaining one player will get wide on the underloaded side; the Samurai Blue will often look to pull off a switch to this player on the underloaded wing as they progress into the final third, creating a potentially great opportunity to attack the opposition’s penalty box.
We see a typical example of Japan executing this tactic as they progress into the final third versus five-time World Cup winners Brasil, in figure 6.
Their centre-forward and attacking midfielder will generally look to help out the player positioned on the underloaded wing by moving centrally and trying to drag the opposition full-back on that side away with them via their run.
Defensive Phase
Moving on to look at Japan in the defensive phases, the radar in figure 7 looking at Japan’s performance in the defensive phases, similar to the previous radar we looked at in figure 3 for Japan’s offensive phases, was made with data taken from their games over the last calendar year, and the percentile ranks shown compare them with the other 31 teams competing in the 2022 FIFA World Cup.
What we’d like to focus on from this radar that’s significant to Japan’s playing style is their low PPDA, high recoveries per match and high recoveries in the final third.
This is a result of the fact that Moriyasu’s side are very aggressive with their pressing and always set out to win the ball as high as possible to force transitions from sensitive areas for the opposition in which they are more vulnerable to a turnover and quick attack.
This ties in with Japan’s attacking preferences — they thrive in transition and set up to exploit this strength as much as they can.
Figure 8 provides a couple of examples (first in the top two squares, second in the bottom two squares) of how the Samurai Blue typically set up to defend in the high-block phase.
The first example shows how Japan’s 4-2-3-1 typically looks in this phase, with the front four typically orienting themselves more to the ball and the dangerous passing options near to their position in relation to where the ball is at that moment.
The centre-forward will generally press the centre-backs aggressively when they play the ball out from the back, with the ball-near winger also typically getting quite aggressive.
Japan’s attacking midfielder will mark the deepest ball-near midfielder, while Japan’s full-backs typically defend quite aggressively too, with the ball-near full-back getting high to mark the opposition’s ball-near full-back, as the top example shows.
Japan’s ball-far full-back will remain deeper.
In the second example, we see how Japan’s deep midfielders defend in this phase a bit more.
These players will generally remain deeper focusing on defending in relation to their position a bit more but when the ball is on their side, if a good passing option is available for the opposition higher in the midfield behind Japan’s attacking midfielder, they will push up to mark that option, which we see Japan’s right holding midfielder doing in this example.
Japan’s forward line offers plenty of pace and defensive work rate to pull off this strategy as well as they do, while they also require plenty of tactical understanding and discipline, which they generally display to a good standard, making life difficult for their opponents in the early possession phases.
Focusing solely on Japan’s forwards for a moment, they will sit narrow in the high-block phase, and we typically see the opposition’s centre-backs outside of them, as was the case in figure 9.
Japan set up to press from in to out on these players, prioritising the protection of the centre as a result of this and the tight marking of the nearest passing options to the player on the ball.
It’s common to see Japan’s midfielders applying aggressive pressure from behind to the opposition receivers.
This can occur as the players who aren’t being marked tightly at that moment end up being found with a pass, leading to a near Japanese player springing into action behind them to halt their progress.
This can rush the opposition into a misplaced pass, resulting in a turnover and transition opportunity for the Samurai Blue, as was the case in figure 10 as the left holding midfielder, who’d been sitting deeper than the aggressive right holding midfielder in this instance, advanced to press the opposition receiver in central midfield when the ball was played to him from the left centre-back, while Japan’s right holding midfielder was marking the opposition’s left central midfielder more tightly.
If they foresee the incoming pass early enough, like in figure 11, the Japan midfielder can intercept the ball themselves, directly creating a turnover for their side from a good position.
After forcing the turnover here, Japan could drive into the final third and overload the opposition’s backline.
It’s not just Japan’s midfielders who press like this, we also see their defenders jump out from the backline and press aggressively, which we see an example of in figure 12.
Moriyasu likes his centre-backs to be comfortable with stepping high and defending aggressively to cover the space behind the midfielders if it gets exposed as a result of their aggressiveness with pressing higher upfield.
Successfully defending in this manner can create more opportunities for Japan to counterattack, which is ideal for them and their attacking preferences.
When defending deeper, as the opposition settle into a period of possession, it’s common to see Japan use something of a 4-5-1 shape, as seen in figure 13.
However, they still constantly apply pressure to the ball carrier and their nearest passing options — this never changes.
One downside to this is that it can lead to Japan’s structure getting ripped apart and played through a bit too easily if the opposition are comfortable and quick-thinking on the ball, as well as with their off-the-ball movement to exploit the spaces that open in Japan’s shape as a result of their aggressive defending and aggressive marking of the ball-near opponents.
At the same time, it can rush the opposition into mistakes and force valuable opportunities to counterattack, which is always this team’s priority.
Transitions
We’ve touched a lot on Japan’s love for transitions in the previous two sections, as their game in possession and out-of-possession are very much centred on creating opportunities to counterattack.
We’ll try not to repeat ourselves too much in this section, then, as we move on into figure 14 to look at Japan’s counterpressing.
We see two examples of Japan’s countepressing in this image (the first taking up the top two boxes and the second taking up the bottom two boxes).
In terms of counterpressing, again, think ‘prioritise marking the nearest options to the ball aggressively’ while focusing on central occupation outside of that and we end up with the shape seen in the top-left corner.
One holding midfielder sits deep, the other pushes on more.
One winger presses aggressively, the other comes across into the centre.
What’s key for Japan’s counterpressing is that their centre-forward/wingers track back and continue applying pressure to the ball carrier even after they progress beyond their line.
At the same time, players will come out from deeper positions to offer support, as the right-holding midfielder did in this example, with the left-holding midfielder and ball-far players shifting across to cover for him.
This leads to the opposition ball carrier being overwhelmed by energetic Japan shirts all around him, resulting in the turnover.
We see a lot of the same principles in the bottom example.
The forwards track back aggressively to support the midfield in pressing while cutting off a potential avenue of escape for the opposition ball carrier, allowing Japan to regain possession deep inside the opposition’s half and create a good counterattacking opportunity.
After regaining possession, Japan’s attackers will immediately look to provide options and exploit space where it’s available — often behind the opposition’s backline.
Furthermore, it’s still common to see Japan try to isolate one attacker on the ball-far side in situations like this and they can succeed in dragging opposition defenders away from that wing to create more space for the attacker via their movement.
Attackers
Now, onto looking at Japan’s attackers.
As mentioned earlier in the scout report, up front is an area of strength for Japan even with the injury to Asano that may make him unavailable for the tournament.
The attackers we’ve selected for the predicted 26-man squad are Junya Ito, Kyogo Furuhashi, Takumi Minamino, Takefusa Kubo, Daizen Maeda, Yuya Osako, Kaoru Mitoma and Ayase Ueda.
Furuhashi, Maeda and Ueda are all performing well at club level but have not exactly replicated that at international level thus far.
However, they remain solid options and Moriyasu will have to put faith in them for the World Cup and trust his team to create the right opportunities that his goalscorers need to produce.
We’ve already analysed how this team attacks and the kinds of goals they typically score in this tactical analysis, so the team will know what’s expected of them.
Mitoma is a very different case in that he’s primarily produced more at international level of late than he has at club level, and this will likely make Moriyasu comfortable with bringing him on the plane to Qatar, similar to Minamino who, though he’s been quiet in recent international appearances, has been a key player throughout Moriyasu’s tenure in charge of the Samurai Blue and has surely earned enough trust for a place in the starting XI.
Osako has been quiet in recent international games too, but has an excellent goalscoring record at international level, and this reliability, along with the fact he’s coming off the back of a decent J-League season in front of goal and the fact he can offer a different profile up front to the other options, may make him an attractive option for Moriyasu’s attack.
Ito was a revelation for Genk in Belgium and has started life in Ligue 1 with Reims positively, though in a different, more central role than the right-winger role he perfected with Genk.
Nevertheless, he’s an exciting attacker whose profile fits the type of football Moriyasu wants his team to play, and he is a player who has typically delivered for the national team, so could well just about take a place in the starting XI ahead of Kubo, who’s another exciting option that could offer something different to Ito again.
Additionally, Kubo has positional versatility and could also provide another option in attacking midfield.
This kind of versatility is always appreciated for international tournaments.
Along with his ability, this makes him a very likely contender for the Japan squad.
Midfielders
Our midfield selections for Japan include Wataru Endo, Hidemasa Morita, Daichi Kamada, Genki Haraguchi, Gaku Shibasaki and Ao Tanaka.
Endo and Morita have been a common sight at holding midfield for Japan during Moriyasu’s tenure, they perform the roles expected of them well and we’d expect to see the partnership feature in Qatar.
Reliability on the ball, press resistance, intelligent decision-making and good positioning without the ball will be crucial for this area.
Meanwhile, Kamada is a very well-rounded midfielder who can create opportunities from a slightly more advanced position.
His bravery in possession and ability to break lines with his passing to create dangerous goal-scoring opportunities make him a very valuable option.
Tanaka and Shibasaki provide versatility but will likely deputise for Endo and Morita in Qatar.
Their profiles can fulfil the necessary roles, though Endo and Morita will likely be the preferred first-choice pairing.
Meanwhile, Haraguchi will likely be the intended backup for Kamada (though Kubo could nudge him out for that role either) and, again, offers plenty of versatility to Moriyasu, so could even fill in for other areas if required, though that will be unlikely.
He lacks the passing quality of Kamada which could be an issue in terms of a starting place but, at the same time, offers better ball-carrying ability, so will be a useful option.
Defenders
As for the defenders, our predicted back-four includes three very experienced options in Yuto Nagatomo, Maya Yoshida and Hiroko Sakai.
At the same time, we’ve also got Arsenal’s Takehiro Tomiyasu in our starting XI at the right centre-back position, adding some youth to the backline.
Should Itakura remain out of action, we predict that Tomiyasu will be a very important member of this squad, both for what he brings to the table in terms of profile and ability, and for his positional versatility.
We’ve focused on hitting a balance between quality and versatility with the rest of our defensive selections too, with Yuta Nakayama and Hiroki Ito both capable of deputising at left-back or left centre-back and Shogo Taniguchi providing experienced cover at centre-back along with emergency cover in holding midfield, if required.
Miki Yamane is a good option at right-back who could well pip Sakai to a place in the squad.
Yamane provides an option who’s arguably more comfortable on the ball and with progressing via passes, while Sakai is a reliable, defensively solid option who’s likely to get forward as much as required and cause problems for the opposition via overlapping runs too, so really it may come down to what exactly Moriyasu wants from the full-back but we believe Sakai may be more in the correct mould.
Japan’s defensive depth is an area of concern, which may be somewhat evident from our last defensive selection, Ayumu Seko, who’s never made an international appearance.
The World Cup is some place to potentially make your international debut, but Seko could be the best option of what’s available outside of the aforementioned players based on what the former J-League rookie of the year has shown with Grasshoppers of late.
In goal, we feel Japan may bring the trio of Shuichi Gonda, Daniel Schmidt, and Eiji Kawashima.
The starting spot is more likely to be contested between Gonda and Schmidt, and it’s likely to be close.
Gonda was Japan’s first choice throughout the qualification campaign, so he may be more likely to hold onto that place in the World Cup tournament itself, but Schmidt delivered some impressive performances in recent games, helping Japan to keep a clean sheet versus both the USA and Ecuador in recent friendlies.
Key Player
We’ve gone for Kamada as Japan’s ‘key player’ for the tournament.
The main area to focus on with Kamada, as mentioned previously, is his passing.
He completes a relatively high number of forward passes, progressive passes, and passes into the final third, making him a key man for Japan and its preferred playing style.
If Moriyasu’s men can find Kamada in space in front of the opposition’s defensive line with runners ahead of him, particularly during a period of transition, that will spell trouble for the opposition, as the playmaker possesses excellent ability to create chances from those situations.
Additionally, Kamada’s defensive work rate will be important.
Figure 16 shows the midfielder’s ‘high regains’ from this season and last with his club, along with those from the World Cup qualification campaign and Kirin Cup with his country.
Figure 15 shows that Kamada engages in a relatively high number of defensive duels, too, and all of this will make him valuable for Japan’s tactics, as discussed earlier in the piece.
Tournament Prediction
We feel Japan have a good chance of pulling off an upset in Group E but this depends on the team’s ability to get the most out of their talented forwards, which they’ve struggled to manage in recent times.
At the minimum, they should expect third place in Group E but there’s no reason they can’t get a result from Spain and/or Germany and perhaps sneak into the Round of 16 — it is a realistic aim that they can pull off with the right game plan.
We feel their defensive organisation and transitional style could cause big problems for their group-stage opponents and an upset is not out of the realm of possibility at all.
