Only five teams with lower xG: Four Marseille problems AVB must fix to end ‘tumultuous’ form

After ending the 2019/20 campaign in second place on the Ligue 1 table, trailing only Paris Saint-Germain, and earning a place in the UEFA Champions League for the current campaign, Olympique de Marseille now sit in sixth place in Ligue 1, at the time of writing, with four teams between them and league leaders PSG.

Les Olympiens have been enduring some problems of late in what has been described as a ‘tumultuous’ run of form, winning just one of their last eight Ligue 1 games, so it’s clear that not all is perfect at Orange Vélodrome right now.

In this tactical analysis piece, in the form of a scout report, we’ll provide some analysis of the standout statistics and elements of manager André Villas-Boas’ tactics to highlight areas of improvement for the Provence-Alpes-Côte dAzur-based club, so that they may be able to turn their dismal run of form around and get back on track with their pursuit of securing a Champions League place for a second consecutive campaign.

Marseille must be more clinical

Les Olympiens have got the sixth-lowest xG (26.67) in France’s top-flight for the 2020/21 campaign at present, which provides a fairly stark contrast to last season when they ended the campaign with the sixth-highest xG in Ligue 1 (37.27).

However, Marseille’s xG-per-shot is far more impressive. They have got the fourth-highest xG-per-shot (0.145) of any Ligue 1 team for the 2020/21 campaign at present.

Their relatively low overall xG provides us with an indication as to why they’ve scored just 27 goals so far this term  the 11th-best goalscoring record of any Ligue 1 side, and not one that you might immediately associate with a Champions League-qualification place contender.

This, combined with their relatively high xG-per-shot, however, paints an even clearer picture. Generally speaking, the goalscoring opportunities that Marseille have created this season have been of fairly high quality but they’ve failed to create many of them. As a result, when they’ve not been clinical enough with the good chances they’ve created, they’ve been punished.

Darío Benedetto slightly overperformed on his xG last season, indicating that throughout the campaign, he scored more goals than would be expected based on the quality of chances he was presented.

This season, the centre-forward, who has started 17 of Marseille’s 19 Ligue 1 games so far this term and featured in all 19 games, is underperforming on his xG to a significant extent, however.

Per Wyscout, Benedetto has got an xG of 0.47-per-90 for the 2020/21 league season right now, while he’s scored an average of 0.26 goals-per-90. So, he’s almost scored half as many goals as you’d expect, based on the chances he’s had.

Les Olympiens’ main centre-forward underperforming to this extent highlights that they haven’t been clinical enough but he’s not the only offender in the squad, he just provides a good example. Teammates of his, such as Florian Thauvin, Michaël Cuisance, Marley Aké and Saif-Eddine Khaoui have all underperformed on xG also.

Marseille miss Payet’s long-shots

It’s clear that Villas-Boas wants his side to prioritise getting into the best-possible goalscoring positions before taking a shot, more often than not, rather than just shooting on sight, however, that might take one of their best tools  Dimitri Payet’s long-shots  out of their game.

You could undoubtedly argue that the goal of creating high-quality chances at the expense of long-shots can be a very sensible one. However, when their main centre-forward, who is on the receiving end of the majority of those chances, hasn’t been clinical enough and the team is losing games, a decision has to be made  do you stick with those tactics and hope that Benedetto turns things around, or do you take a different approach?

One negative to Villas-Boas’ tactics this season, other than how heavily they rely on the players being clinical, is that they result in Marseille losing out on the long-shot threat that is Payet.

Last season, Marseille were far happier to shoot from distance. They ended the 2019/20 campaign having taken the second-highest number of shots outside of the penalty area of any team in Ligue 1.

With 40 to his name, Payet took twice as many shots from outside of the box as any other Marseille player, so it’s clear that they relied heavily on this element of his game and it produced results, as he ended the season as Marseille’s second-highest goalscorer, with nine. The image above, taken from the 2019/20 campaign, shows us an example of the type of position in which the playmaker loved to get into. This was shooting-range for Payet.

This season, however, Marseille have taken by far the lowest number of shots from outside the area of any Ligue 1 side (65) and Payet has taken just six, which is fewer than five other Marseille players, including Florian Thauvin, who was injured for the 2019/20 campaign and has taken the most long-shots of any Marseille player this term (13).

On returning to Marseille