Following the departure of their star striker, Lorenzo Lucca, who has joined Napoli, Udinese’s technical director, Gökhan Inler, has recently stated that the team is actually searching for alternative strikers to try replacing Lucca with a striker who has similar attributes and can lead the team to a higher spot than last season in Serie A.
Given that Inler expressed the club’s desire to sign a striker and that they are monitoring the situation of approximately five or six, the idea of this data analysis will be to “help” Udinese pick the most adequate choice regarding the replacement of Lucca based on numerous criteria.
In fact, this tactical analysis and scout report takes into account the club’s financial situation and value.
Given that Udinese are neither one of the biggest clubs in Europe nor one of the richest, our research avoids focusing on players from the top tier, excluding all of La Liga, the Premier League, and the German Bundesliga.
Only one player from the French Ligue 1 and two players from Serie A were picked in the data analysis, knowing that Udinese are capable of negotiating with French clubs or specific Serie A players like the ones mentioned in the chosen list of the potential Udinese strikers.
The rest of the names are good enough strikers to suit Udinese’s level and provide the needed attacking addition, as Udinese cannot really negotiate with much better players.
That’s why it was more realistic to opt for the best candidates from the leagues just behind the top three ones, as players from the big teams would automatically refuse Udinese’s offers, especially if they are starters in their respective teams.
Udinese Potential Strikers Similar To Lorenzo Lucca
This list was created through Total Football Analysis’ xGold tool, which generates a list of players who resemble the chosen player (in this case, Lucca) while considering all the desired criteria.
In our case, the focus was on selecting strikers who play in good enough championships, such as Serie A, Serie B, EFL Championship, MLS, French Ligue 1 and Ligue 2, Argentina’s Liga Profesional, the Brasileirão Serie A, and more.
In the following findings, it is essential to note that Rodrigo Castillo was excluded from the comparison mainly because he has recently moved to Lanús; therefore, it would not be possible for Udinese to buy him during this transfer window.
At the same time, we kept Inter Milan’s Francesco Pio Esposito on the list even though the Nerazzurri decided to keep him within this season’s squad and avoid loaning him out again.
This is mainly because Inter Milan can change their mind anytime regarding Esposito’s future, especially if they receive a considerable offer from Udinese or if I Friulani propose to loan him for the second half of the season.
Emmanuel Latte Lath
The list includes the Ivorian Emmanuel Latte Lath, who plays at Atlanta United in MLS but came through in Italy with Atalanta.
He was loaned out to several Italian Serie B and Serie C teams to further develop his skills and become a more experienced striker, meaning that Latte Lath already knows Italian football and has an advantage over the other strikers in this regard.
However, one of Latte Lath’s weaknesses that might not suit Udinese’s ambitions is his 1.76 m height, which could be a drawback for Udinese’s management, who are most likely keen on signing a taller striker.
Tawfik Bentayeb
The same motive applies to the Moroccan striker Tawfik Bentayeb, who plays at Rodez AF and can be considered underrated since there was no fuss about interested teams in his services despite having the potential to become a more useful striker in Europe.
Santiago Castro
The third choice on the list (the order is not based on the players’ abilities) is Santiago Castro, who plays in Serie A side Bologna and remains part of the team’s plans for next season.
This means that signing the Argentinian player will be complicated mainly because Udinese will need to pay a lot to win the player’s services, taking into consideration that convincing the player himself to join Udinese’s project will not be easy since Bologna plan to continue playing for the top spots this season, whereas Udinese is behind in the standings.
That said, guaranteeing a starting spot along with an attractive salary would probably make Castro change his mind.
Ignacio Russo
The fourth forward is Ignacio Russo, who plays for Tigre, on loan from Rosario Central.
This striker is not well-known in Europe and is not attracting the interest of big teams, which means that it would be less complicated for Udinese to take the risk and sign him, given that he has the abilities needed to succeed in Italy.
Mihailo Ivanović
The next option is Mihailo Ivanović, who plays for Millwall and has previously been loaned to Sampdoria.
Despite not getting the playing time he needed with Sampdoria, Ivanović started imposing himself at Millwall and has developed a lot compared to when he was at Sampdoria.
Udinese have considerable chances of succeeding in the negotiations with Millwall to transfer or loan the Serbian forward, especially if they offer him a regular starting spot, which would represent an upgrade for him.
Inter Milan’s Esposito’s situation is not clear yet despite I Nerazzurri‘s intent to keep him on the team this season and rely on him as a backup player.
That’s why if Udinese exploit the opportunity and offer Esposito a one-year loan while guaranteeing him a high number of appearances, Inter Milan can change their mind and accept the deal, especially if they agree on financial terms.
Numerous critics have already suggested that Esposito still needs to be loaned out to a Serie A team in order to play more regularly at the high level before challenging for a spot at Inter Milan, knowing that staying at Inter Milan this season would not help him a lot in terms of development since he is not the plan A option for the striker role.
Oumar Diakité
Oumar Diakité is a 21-year-old striker who plays for Reims and is attracting the attention of several teams, such as Crystal Palace.
Diakité can become a reliable striker for Udinese, especially if he succeeds in adapting to Serie A’s playing style, given his attacking capabilities.
Trévis Dago
Trévis Dago is another attacking talent who can be very useful to Udinese, especially because his situation with his actual club, LOSC, is unclear.
The French player has returned from loan after LOSC loaned him out to Annecy in Ligue 2, meaning that LOSC do not yet seemingly believe in the player’s ability to help the team and be central to their project.
Before Les Dogues decides about their players’ future, proposing a transfer or a loan deal now would be perfect for Udinese players to increase their chances of signing the players.
Mateo Pellegrino
Finally, Udinese can try stealing Parma’s Argentinian striker Mateo Pellegrino.
He used to play for Vélez Sarsfield and could make his breakthrough with Udinese since he has already spent one season in Italy, during which he showed some positive signs and is therefore ready to become more crucial and central to his team.
Goalscoring Stats
In order to evaluate the selected strikers, we must look at their goalscoring statistics compared with their xG.
This is very important to determining how crucial these strikers can be in terms of finishing for their respective teams.
The following graphic shows that Esposito has the highest xG and also the highest rate in terms of goals per match, as he scored 19 goals in 39 Serie B games last season.
Bentayeb comes in the second spot with 0.52 goals per game despite having a lower xG, which means that Bentayeb performs even better than expected in front of goal, with 10 goals in 29 Ligue 2 games.
Both players score more goals on average than Lucca, meaning that they represent an upgrade to Lucca in terms of goalscoring.
That said, the striker who is close to Lucca in terms of goalscoring is Russo, who scores 0.42 goals per match and scored seven goals in 22 games last season.
Activity In The Box Stats
One key trait to evaluate for strikers is their activity inside the box, including how often they attempt shots and touch the ball inside the box.
This determines how active these strikers are, knowing that the activity inside the box automatically impacts the team’s goal-scoring chances.
The graphic once again highlights Esposito’s high number of shots per match and higher number of touches inside the box per match compared to the rest of the players.
In the second spot, we find Bentayeb with the second-highest average of shots per game, just a bit lower than Esposito, despite touching the ball less than Esposito inside the box.
Regarding this aspect, Dago comes third this time, with close shots per match rates compared to both Esposito and Bentayeb, despite touching the ball less than both of them inside the box.
However, it is essential to note that most of the selected players in this graphic have better rates than Lucca’s.
Target Man Stats
Udinese have always been known for being a team that relies on very physical, tall players, particularly in the defender and striker positions.
They favour strikers who act like stationary forwards inside the box and can win a high percentage of the total aerial duels per match.
If we look at Lucca’s statistics in this regard, we notice that he wins a lot of aerial duels per match, as shown in this graphic, relying mainly on his height and physical strength.
Players like Bentayeb and Russo are automatically excluded from the comparison mainly because they are poor in the air and not as tall as required.
That said, Pellegrino can be considered the best in this regard, despite playing in Serie A and against powerful defenders in the air, which makes him the best fit for the target man role.
At the same time, both Esposito and Latte Lath are capable of winning many aerial duels per match.
They can be reliable for winning such duels, but with a lower percentage compared to Pellegrino.
Assist-Making Stats
Another crucial factor in the selection process is strikers’ ability to be actively involved in the playmaking process, especially in terms of assist-making.
Although Lucca is not the best example in this regard, as he has low rates, many of the selected strikers can be very useful in terms of assist-making, with Bentayeb, Esposito, Diakité and Latte Lath holding the best positions in this regard.
It is important to note that Latte Lath provided the highest number of assists last season, with six in 55 appearances.
Dribbling Stats
Since Lucca was not one of the best dribblers in Serie A, yet was good enough for Udinese’s level, it is expected that Udinese would not focus much on this criterion compared to the others when choosing their replacement for Lucca.
Given that the aim is to get a target man, the striker’s dribbling abilities will be helpful, but they do not necessarily need to be his best trait.
That said, Bentayeb, Esposito, Pellegrino, Latte Lath, Dago, Russo, and Castro all have higher successful dribbling rates than Lucca, which means that all of them are good enough from this perspective.
The highest rates favour Castro, Russo, Pellegrino, and Esposito.
Regarding progressive runs, strikers who tend to remain inside the box, such as Lucca and those who resemble him in terms of playing style, do not make many progressive runs per match.
But if Udinese change their mind and would like to have a more agile, explosive, and creative striker, they will need to go with Dago, Latte Lath, or Diakité, since these players make more progressive runs per match than the rest and tend to move a lot outside and inside the box.
Conclusion
Bentayeb, Esposito, Pellegrino, and Russo are our top four options for filling Lucca’s boots in the Udinese centre-forward position.
The rest of the choices don’t fill us with the same confidence of adapting to the level Udinese would need, either as goal scorers, ability to play as the target man, or activity in the box.
To explain our top four, Bentayeb has more potential in terms of goal-scoring and activity inside the box.
He is excellent at dribbling but, crucially, lacks the target man attributes that Udinese may consider non-negotiable for their centre-forward, potentially ruling him out of the running.
On the other hand, Esposito is already good enough in terms of goalscoring, activity inside the box, and reliability as a target man.
He only lacks the dribbling and progressive runs, but these two statistics can be overlooked since they will not impact his addition as a striker, given they weren’t key attributes for Lucca either.
Russo does not have the necessary physical abilities to become a successful target man, but is a reliable finisher with great potential for improvement in terms of goalscoring and box activity.
His dribbling is also good enough for a striker, and that makes him a different yet effective striker.
That said, both Bentayeb and Russo are poor in the air and cannot be used as a “target man” like Udinese usually want and like Lucca used to be.
So if Udinese plan to base their choice on the ability to execute the role of a target man, the perfect choice would be Parma’s Pellegrino because he excels in this regard compared to the rest of the players.
Moreover, Pellegrino has convincing numbers regarding goalscoring and dribbling and is perfect regarding the target man’s duties.
However, he must improve his playmaking contributions and shooting stats to succeed in Udinese.
Overall, we can conclude that Esposito and Pellegrino have the most similar profiles to Lucca.
At the same time, Bentayeb and Russo can be very useful to Udinese despite not being very similar to Lucca, since they have different strengths/weaknesses.
