The final game of the 2024 MLS season is upon us, and the MLS Cup will take centre stage on Saturday afternoon in southern California.
Two teams from, historically, the two biggest markets in the country—Los Angeles and New York—will contest for the Philip F. Anschutz Trophy.
It’s Galaxy versus Red Bulls, as the new Western and Eastern Conference champions battle at Dignity Health Sports Park for MLS Cup 2024.
For both sides, given the expectations surrounding them each year, it’s been a long absence from this prestigious fixture, with this being Galaxy’s first MLS Cup appearance since 2014 while it’s Red Bulls’ first since 2008.
However, the history surrounding both sides’ fortunes at the MLS Cup couldn’t be more different.
Despite going a decade now without a title, Galaxy are still the most successful side in the league’s 29-year history.
They have five MLS Cups to their name, coming during the years of the likes of Landon Donovan, David Beckham, Robbie Keane, and Cobi Jones at the club.
Red Bulls are still waiting for their maiden title.
They lost in their only previous finals appearance, a 3-1 reverse to Columbus Crew in 2008.
Interestingly, that defeat took place at the same stadium where they will be playing for the MLS Cup for the second time this Saturday, with Galaxy playing host because they have the better regular season record of the two sides.
The New York Red Bulls may not have the chance to be the first club to bring the coveted prize to the New York metropolitan area any longer, with rivals New York City FC already achieving that feat in 2021.
But they will have the chance to win a major title, their biggest as a franchise, having only won three Supporters’ Shields and a couple of Conference championships, and add some long-awaited hardware to their cabinet this weekend.
This tactical preview and tactical analysis will examine some key points in both clubs’ runs to this year’s MLS Cup.
We’ll provide some in-depth analysis of what to look out for on Saturday as another year for U.S. Soccer draws to a close.
Los Angeles Galaxy vs New York Red Bulls Predicted Lineups
The graphic above displays the lineups of both teams during last weekend’s Western and Eastern Conference Finals, in which the LA Galaxy and New York Red Bulls came out on top, respectively.
These are also the most likely teams that will enter the field come kick-off in Carson on Saturday afternoon.
LA Galaxy will likely line up in a 4-3-3 shape, with a heavy focus on their offence.
Summer signing Marco Reus has found his place alongside the club’s star man Riqui Puig in the centre of midfield, supporting the lethal front three of Gabriel Pec, Joseph Paintsil, and Dejan Joveljić.
The latter four also make up four of the top five scorers in this year’s post-season, with only Vancouver Whitecaps’ Ryan Gauld up there among them from across all eighteen teams that took part in the playoffs.
However, with Puig suffering an ACL injury last week which has ruled him out for this final and several months beyond that, it will be interesting to see how Greg Vanney adjusts tactically with his star player out for this biggest of occasions.
The New York Red Bulls shifted their tactics when the playoffs arrived, switching from their usual 4-2-2-2 scheme used throughout the season to a three-man defensive system.
This system has offered them greater flexibility on both sides of the ball, particularly in defence, where they have kept three clean sheets from three away playoff games to date.
Although they set up in a 5-4-1 against Orlando City last weekend, as pictured above, they have also shifted to a 3-4-2-1 and 3-4-1-2, with the wide players above taking up more central roles, Dante Vanzeir joining Lewis Morgan up front, and captain Emil Forsberg becoming more of a trademark #10 behind them.
Felipe Carballo was a key figure in their midfield alongside Daniel Edelman prior to the Eastern Conference Final, but he missed out on that game due to injury.
Now, due to reports that he’s missed training in recent days, he’s unlikely to be back in the team, with Peter Stroud expected to take his place in the middle once again.
Of course, their defence is the foundation on which they’ve built this run.
The Nealis brothers Dylan and Sean flank their hero from the win in Orlando, Colombian Andrés Reyes, to form a solid defensive trio that has so far been impregnable away from home, with shut-outs at Columbus, NYCFC, and Orlando to get here.
Their tactical adjustments have proven successful thus far in getting them to their first MLS Cup in sixteen years, but they will face a different challenge against a red-hot Galaxy attack on the road this weekend.
LA Galaxy’s Current Form & Keys to Victory
With Galaxy playing at home in this final and the incredible form they’re in offensively, it’s hard to look past anything other than their attack being their biggest route towards a first MLS Cup win since 2014.
With sixteen goals netted in just four playoff games, they are averaging four goals a game in the post-season.
Their goalscoring numbers were only bettered by Inter Miami and Columbus in the regular season when they averaged two per game with sixty-nine strikes in total.
Los Angeles Galaxy Shots Map 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs
Their shots map above showcases some of their impressive numbers throughout the playoffs, with fifty-four attempts generated across all of their games, for an average of just over thirteen per game.
Besides that, a few things stick out as very interesting here.
First, their xG per shot is 0.12, which is okay but nothing amazing as you’d expect from a side as free-scoring as they have been.
Second, to support the previous point, they have a relatively low amount of shots with a higher xG value, which are indicated by the infrequency of larger circles in the graphic, and very few overall coming within close range from goal of about ten yards or less.
Lastly, perhaps most interestingly, their overall XG across all four games was just 6.73, which means that with sixteen goals, Galaxy outperformed the average of their expected goal by about ten goals!
A highly impressive feat and one that is a testament to the quality of players they have in their ranks as they are able to find the back of the net even from situations that have a low probability of ending in goals, as they have done throughout the playoffs.
Los Angeles Galaxy Shot Assists Map 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs
In addition to the earlier points, their shot assists map above highlights the areas in which their attacks really come to life and where their goals have been coming from.
With most assists that led directly to goals coming from just outside the penalty area or from wide right, the Red Bulls will want to watch out for those areas most on Saturday.
The greatest threats there will be Pec and Reus (in the absence of Puig), who are Galaxy’s biggest weapons in a side full of attacking arsenal.
Los Angeles Galaxy Crossing Zones Map 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs
Speaking of Pec, it’s from his side where Galaxy are most threatening as far as their wing play goes, as shown by the crossing zones map above.
With more than a 20% difference between the two flanks as far as frequent and successful crosses, there’s no doubt that he brings the bigger threat from Galaxy’s wide offensive men in this contest.
It’s a very thin line to walk on for Red Bulls given that Paintsil and even John Nelson supporting on the overlap from behind on the opposite flank to watch out for, meaning Galaxy’s offense is dangerous no matter what angle they try to come from.
But if there’s one guy out wide that they’ll want to keep a particularly close eye on, it’s Gabriel Pec.
New York Red Bulls’ Current Form & Keys to Victory
While offense has been the key for Galaxy’s success in recent weeks, on the other end, it’s been the opposite for the visiting team.
As mentioned, the Red Bulls have kept three consecutive road clean sheets, and Sandro Schwartz’s tactical changes have helped the team build this run on a solid defensive foundation.
New York Red Bulls Defensive Territory Map 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs
Their defensive territory map above displays how active the team is as a whole when it comes to making defensive plays.
There are defensive actions and interceptions galore interspersed with some fouls, particularly in the middle to attacking third in attempts to win the ball back off the opposition.
New York like to defend with every player being proactive when they don’t have the ball, hence why their data collection is so high volume in the graphic we see above.
New York Red Bulls Shots Blocked Map 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs
This shots blocked map does well to showcase what the players at the back have been directly responsible for when it comes to defending their goal in this run.
With seventeen blocked shots and a blocked xG of nearly one goal per game, there’s no doubt that the trio of Reyes and the Nealis brothers has been exceptional for New York, exactly what they needed to be to reach MLS Cup as a seventh seed in the East.
But while they have been resolute defensively at the back, how they defend from the front is equally important for this team and an essential tool they’ll need to be successful on Saturday.
New York Red Bulls High Regains Map 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs
This high regains map points out how Red Bulls have not lost their identity as a counter-pressing outfit, despite the change in tactics for these playoffs.
The number that’s particularly important here is their counterpressing recoveries, meaning balls recovered within five seconds of losing it, with 68 recorded in total for an average of 17 per game.
This is relevant because Galaxy have only had thirty-seven, nearly half, in comparison, meaning New York are a far more effective team when it comes to their pressing off the ball in higher areas up the field.
Given how many players Galaxy likes to attack with through their high-octane approach to offence, winning balls in those key areas could well be the Red Bulls’ best route to goal and an embodiment of Schwartz and the Red Bulls’ way of playing the game.
Conclusion
So, the stage is set for what promises to be a fascinating encounter for the MLS Cup this weekend.
While both sides have based their journeys thus far on different strengths and approaches, it all comes down to 90 minutes (or 120 + penalties) in southern California to determine which one will end the year as the champion.
It remains to be seen whether Galaxy will end a ten-year title drought or Red Bulls will win a historic first, but we should be in store for an exciting affair come kick-off on Saturday afternoon.
