Ian Murray at Raith Rovers 2023/24: The changes that led to their promotion push – tactical analysis

Raith Rovers FC have been home to one of the most interesting stories to come out of Scottish football this season.

The club havent been a part of the Scottish Premiership since the 1990s, having suffered their final relegation from the top tier in 1997 after shipping 73 goals and scoring just 29 in 36 league matches that season. Since then, they have shuffled between the Scottish First Division (now Scottish Championship) and Second Division (Scottish League One), coming close to getting back into the Premier League on only a couple of occasions. They notably finished third in the Championship in the 2020/21 season, qualifying for the playoffs. Rovers defeated Dunfermline Athletic 2-0 on aggregate in the quarterfinals but lost 3-1 to Dundee FC in the last four. This was followed by a fifth-placed finish in 2021/22, and last season; they finished a lowly seventh in Ian Murrays first campaign with the club.

Despite winning just 11 of their 36 league matches under Murray, which included no wins in their final seven games of the season, Rovers chose to keep Murray at the helm. A summer of change followed, with 15 players signed (10 free transfers and five loan deals), while ten players were sold. The result has been a massively improved campaign, with the team currently second in the Championship, having collected an excellent 58 points from 29 matches  already more than what they managed in five of their last seven completed seasons, with seven matches still to go. They are just one behind Dundee United, who have played a game more.

The key driver of this change has been a massively improved offence, which scored 49 goals, the third-highest mark in the league and more than what Rovers scored in their last three full seasons. What has led to this explosion upfront and where are the goals coming from? This tactical analysis will look at Murrays impact and perform analysis of the key statistical changes and tactics used by this iteration of Raith Rovers FC.

Background

As mentioned earlier, Murray, 43, is a former footballer who spent his playing career largely across the Scottish football pyramid. He began his career with Dundee United, making it into their first team in 1998, before joining Hibernian on a free transfer the following year. After six seasons there, he spent two years with Rangers before moving to Norwich City in 2007. However, his spell there lasted just a year, and he returned to Hibernian in January 2008. After four-and-a-half years with the club, Murray joined Dumbarton in November 2012 after spending over four months without a club and eventually hung up his boots at the end of the 2013/14 season. He made 336 club appearances overall, with 289 of those coming in the Scottish Premiership (248 with Hibernian). Murray also played six times in the UEFA Champions League and won six caps for Scotland.

His management career notably began during his time with Dumbarton, as he was their player-manager from when he joined them until nearly a year after his retirement. In that time, he oversaw the team in 108 matches, winning 41 times before departing the club in May 2015. Murray then joined St. Mirren, but his spell lasted a mere seven months and 21 matches (five wins, six draws, 10 losses). He was then the assistant manager to Kevin Nicol between January 2017 and October 2018 after which he promptly joined Airdrieonians in the Scottish League One. Murray stayed with the club for nearly four years, leading them to 69 wins in 142 matches, twice falling at the final hurdle in their bid for promotion to the Championship. He left the club in May 2022 to join Raith Rovers.

What do the stats say about Raith Rovers FCs improvements in 2023/24?

A quick look at the stats suggests that Murrays men have simply gotten better at some of the things they were doing last season, as there arent too many standout improvements across fields.

Lets start with their attacking output. Rovers are overperforming their expected goals (xG) tally for now but are still creating better chances than they did last season, resulting in the team scoring 49 league goals compared to 46 last season. A key reason for this is the team taking more shots from inside the box and getting more of those on target rather than firing away from the outside. Additionally, they have become marginally more proficient from corners. However, their ability to hit teams on the counter has dipped, and are recording more activity inside the penalty area as well.

As their shot-map for the 2023/24 Championship season (right) indicates, a large chunk of their shots has been from central areas around and ahead of the penalty spot, which usually gives them a better chance of finding the back of the net. Notice the difference in the volume of shots from outside the box and inside the six-yard area between last season and the ongoing campaign.

There are also differences in their passing