The last time Canada made the World Cup, the Berlin Wall was still intact, the internet was nothing more than a tech dream, and the Soviet Union regime was still in power.
In fact, during the 1986 World Cup, the Canadians lost their third group-stage match to the Soviets, a 2-0 result.
The hockey-crazed nation left the 1986 World Cup without a win, draw, or goal scored, leaving this Canadian national team with a plethora of firsts to accomplish in Qatar.
Canada’s CONCACAF rise has been meteoric. With stars like Alfonso Davies and Jonathan David, there was a perception that Canada was a fringe competitor to claim a top-four spot and make their way to Qatar. What transpired exceeded everyone’s expectations, well, at least everyone outside of the Canadian national team program.
Exceeding all expectations, Canada topped the CONCACAF table, finishing ahead of perennial powers USA and Mexico. If there’s one theme to pull from their qualifying campaign, it’s the power of the collective.
This tactical analysis will largely serve as an introduction of the Canadian national team to the world. In emerging power, Canada’s defensive tactics and exceptional counterattacking led to a surprising qualifying campaign, but it also sends a message to their group-stage opponents. This scout report will show why Canada is not a team to take lightly and how this group is built for tournament play. Beware Les Rouges.
Predicted starting XI
For those who followed Canada’s journey to the World Cup, some of the standout features of the squad were tactical versatility and an extraordinary youth movement. Let’s start with that first point.
At the World Cup, Canada will likely feature either a 4-2-3-1 or a 4-4-2. Against stronger opponents, they tended to play in a 4-4-2, then went with a 4-2-3-1 when they expected to have more joy and possession. Given the quality of their group, which features Belgium, Morocco and Croatia, a 4-4-2 may very well be the go-to system.
That said, in recent matches, we have seen more of the 4-2-3-1, which is the reason it is our featured system. The formation may also depend on the personnel that is seen as the best fit for specific matches. Though Canada’s largely a younger team, we will find the likes of 39-year-old Atiba Hutchinson, 35-year-old Steven Vitória, 33-year-old Samuel Adekugbe, and 32-year-old Junior Hoilett throughout the tournament. Depending on their fitness levels and early group-stage results, it would not be surprising to see Canada rotate their squad over the course of their first three matches.
In that starting XI, Milan Borjan of Red Star Belgrade will start in goal. Vitória and Kamal Miller are the likeliest centrebacks, flanked by Richie Laryea on the right and Adekugbe on the left. Expect Alistair Johnston to rotate with the outside-backs as well.
In midfield, Porto’s Stephen Eustáquio and Toronto FC’s Mark-Anthony Kaye will likely see the majority of time at the pivot positions with the captain, Hutchinson, rotating in. His recovery from injury will largely dictate his playing time in this tournament. If fit, he’ll certainly see the pitch as he is the emotional leader of the team.
Tajon Buchanan, the Club Bruges winger who featured twice against Atlético Madrid in the Champions League, will likely start on the right while Bayern Munich’s Alphonso Davies leads the attack from the left. Though the Bundesliga star plays left-back for Bayern, he will feature as Canada’s left midfielder. Junior Hoilett will play the #10 role with Jonathan David of Lille as the striker.
One notable absence is Toronto’s Jonathan Osorio, the 30-year-old with 55 caps for his country. He is unlikely to recover his fitness in time for the World Cup. If he does, look for him to play in that central attacking midfielder role, which would then free Hoilett to see minutes on the wing as well.
Looking at Canada’s squad age profile, the five players on the other side of 30 are key pieces for this team. They’ll provide the leadership that this young squad needs. Borjan and Vitória will likely play every minute whereas the other three are given opportunities for rest.
Looking at the rest of the team, many of Canada’s top players are either young or just entering their peak years. This is an exciting squad with a lot of upside and a bright future ahead of itself. They topped CONCACAF in World Cup qualifying and arguably show the greatest team unity and intensity throughout the qualifying process. They are a classic, “greater than the sum of their parts” squad.
Attacking phase
With the squad details in hand, let’s turn our attention to how Canada sealed their place in Qatar. The pizza chart shows Canada’s World Cup qualifying metrics relative to the World Cup’s other 31 participants.
One of the categories that catches attention is the 30th percentile in possession percentage. Even against CONCACAF nations, Canada was likely to concede possession to the opposition. But that worked out well for the Maple Leafs.
Their narrow defensive shape and highly effective counterattacking led to approximately 50th percentile ratings in goals and shots per match. Those numbers may be average but they resulted in a 79th percentile xG per match. By and large, Canada lives by the counterattack and direct possessions. Looking at their group, we anticipate Les Rouges shifting the burden of attack to all three opponents. In turn, Canada will prioritize their defensive shape and counterattack, especially utilizing the pace of Davies on the left.
When Canada does play from the back, look for an asymmetric build-out with a strong rest defence and overloads near the ball.
Looking at our first tactical image, which comes from their match against Uruguay, we see the asymmetry of Canada’s 4-2-3-1. The backline is rather compact and remains fairly deep. One of the two pivots will move towards the ball in support of the first attacker while the other finds the balance between a central position to safeguard against a loss of possession and providing an overload on the far side.
The central attacking midfielder will often move in the direction of the ball, especially when it is on the right side of the pitch. His positioning, as well as that of the #9, offers Davies the isolation he enjoys. Should he receive on the left wing and find an opponent without cover, he’s going to run at them and make something happen. That’s when we’ll see the connection with David as Canada enters the box.
The possessions tend to be very direct, looking to break lines early. One thing Canada does very well is getting between the opposition’s midfield and backline when recovering the second ball after a long pass into the front line. In possession, this is when Canada’s most dangerous. If their midfielders can run onto a ball between the lines while in a forward-facing position, their pace in the wings and David’s movement centrally will cause problems. From Canada’s perspective, this is the best-case scenario when breaking lines and getting into the final third.
Once Canada gets into the box, they do arrive with a lot of numbers. Should the initial possession not lead to a shot, look for the Canucks to cut the ball back to one of their two outside-backs. As that happens, the forward and attacking mids are very good at offering a clear target in the box. In their match against Qatar, their runners overloaded at the far post and created a 3v2 against the host nation. The result of this sequence was a Larin goal.
Davies and David are well-known across the globe. While this is a Canadian squad that will lean heavily on the collective, expect John Herdman to design the team’s tactics to bring out the best qualities of their two young stars.
Defensive phase
This is where Canada excels. This is a hard-working, tactically disciplined and fiercely competitive team with complete buy-in from the squad when the team is out of possession. If Canada can make it out of a difficult group, their quality out of possession will likely be the reason for their success.
Looking at the pizza chart, most categories rate in the top half of the World Cup squads. Canada rates very well in recoveries, interceptions, and defensive duals per match, though their duel efficiency is among the weaker marks from tournament teams. The standout metric is the number of fouls Canada commits per match. Reading in the 88th percentile, opponents are likelier to get hacked than counterattack. If Canada loses the ball while in a more expansive attacking shape, they’re quick to foul.
Even though Canada is a counterattacking team, they break the mould with their aggressive high press. In fact, qualifying nations like the USA and Mexico found it difficult to break Canada’s high press. Looking at the first tactical image, Canada does well to pressure the centrebacks and funnel play deeper, often into the wings. As opponents receive the ball out wide, Canada is quick to apply pressure on the first attacker and move additional numbers around the ball to seal the opposition into the wing. When successful, which it often is, Route 1 football is the likeliest outcome.
The sequence against Mexico plays directly to a high recovery by Canada and a Larin goal. That goal was the direct result of Canada’s effective high press. The black lines indicate the marking responsibilities while the shaded area shows how intensely Canada seals opponents.
When opponents break the high press, Canada will settle into a mid-block, typically with a 4-4-2. The #10 will push into the front line while the two wide-attacking midfielders drop in with the pivots. The team does well to take away central options and funnel play into the wings.
Once in the wings, Canada will again attempt to seal the opposition. Looking at the final image of the section, which is again from the Mexico match, Canada has seven players in that shaded area. Top to bottom is approximately 25 m and the width is around 20 m. The narrow pitch, and frigid November temperatures, certainly contributed to Canada’s victory against Mexico.
Player for player, the odds of Canada’s progression seem unlikely. However, based on their collective production and their quality in the defensive phases of the game, this side has the knockout rounds on their minds. Don’t be surprised if Canada’s out-of-possession tactics carry them forward.
Transitions
We’ve already touched upon Canada’s counterattacking in this analysis, but it bears repeating that Canada’s attacking output will largely come down to the effectiveness of their counterattacking.
The other side of that coin is how quickly they counter-press and become organized when out of possession. Canada’s attacking structure is designed with defensive transitions in mind.
We showed their asymmetric build-out in the attacking section. Our first image in transitions touches upon a similar note. The image against Uruguay shows Canada’s rest defence as they enter the final third. Notice the numbers near the ball and the diamond produced by the four deepest players. Even if Canada loses the ball in this scenario, they are well placed to counterpress, recover numbers behind the ball, and eliminate the opponent’s direct moves to goal.
While their PPDA was average relative to World Cup squads, the most important aspect of Canada’s defensive transitions is getting numbers behind the ball, and recovering into their solid defensive shape.
During attacking transitions, look for Canada to prioritize the wings. The pace of Davies on the left will be a burden for any opponent, as will the progressive runs of Buchanan on the right. Getting either of the wingers behind the opposition’s outside-backs is a priority.
Even when Canada counterattacks centrally, their narrow defensive shape positions the wingers to run behind the backline through the central channel. That’s what we have in the final image in this section. David plays Davies behind the backline, using the Bundesliga star’s pace as the targeted outlet. A race against Davies in the central channel to get onto a through ball is a nightmare for opponents.
Canada’s play in transition was exceptional in qualifying. Should it carry over into the World Cup, you’ll find the squad is difficult to break down and a threat in attacking transitions. Their group-stage opponents must design their tactics to account for Canada’s exciting young talents up top.
Attackers
It’s high up the pitch that we find many of Canada’s top young talents. Buchanan and Larin Play their trade at Club Bruges, David is enjoying an exceptional campaign with Lille in Ligue 1 and the brightest star of them all is Bayern Munich’s Davies. Hoilett will feature as well, and we may see the likes of Cavallini and Millar throughout the tournament.
They may not have the household names that Belgium enjoys, but this is a very talented group of players with the right blend of emerging young stars and veteran leadership.
Larin, who should recover his fitness in time for the World Cup, also gives Canada the tactical versatility to move to a two-forward system, working him and David off of each other. Canada has used the big/small combo up top with great success. Should they defer to a 4-4-2, Larin is the likeliest to see the pitch.
Midfielders
Midfield is certainly the thinnest part of Canada’s team. That said, the midfielders listed in the World Cup squad are specifically on the team to play as defensive midfielders. Regardless of the system, Canada will likely deploy a double pivot.
Porto’s Eustáquio is a mainstay in the starting 11. Kaye and Piette are the likeliest to join him with Koné, an emerging young talent from CF Montréal, joining the mix. The wildcard is Hutchinson. The captain of the squad, between his recovery from injury and age, he’ll see the pitch, though he may be used more reservedly.
Should Canada play with a four-midfielder system, Davies and Buchanan are the incumbents in the wings. Though listed as forwards, they will cover Canada’s wing needs regardless of the depth of their positioning. Hoilett is another example of a player listed as a forward who will play as an attacking midfielder. Laryea can play right midfield as well.
Ultimately, this group is thin on paper only. When looking at the five players listed as midfielders, these are the five defensive midfielders Canada will take to Qatar.
Defenders
Along the backline, Canada will feature several players who are either in or nearing their prime years. Then there is Steven Vitória, the 6’5″ Chaves centre-back who leads the line at the young age of 35. He’s the veteran leader of this group. The son of Portuguese immigrants from the Azores Islands and a member of Portugal’s youth national teams, Vitória started representing his native Canada in 2016.
Hutchinson can also play along the backline, but it’s widely expected that Miller will start beside Vitória. Johnston has featured regularly for Canada giving the squad depth behind Laryea and Adekugbe. Cornelius adds some experience at the centre-back position while Kennedy and Waterman add depth.
Key player
There’s no questioning Canada’s star man. Alfonso Davies, the Bayern Munich superstar who was born to Liberian parents in a Canadian refugee camp, immigrated to Canada with his family in 2005. His leap from Vancouver to Bayern Munich was unprecedented in the league’s history.
Entering the World Cup fresh off his 22nd birthday, Davies is the uncontested star on the team. Though he will play higher up the pitch as an attacking left midfielder, the same position he played at Vancouver, Davies is as well-rounded a player as you’ll find at the World Cup. His role with Bayern Munich transfers exceptionally well to Canada’s defensive commitment and counterpressing responsibilities. With more freedom to play higher up the pitch, the world will see a side of Davies that keeps CONCACAF opponents up at night. His runs behind the backline and aggression on the dribble are paramount to the Canadian team’s counterattacking success.
Tournament prediction
Odds makers list Belgium and Croatia as the heavy favourites to make it through the group stage but don’t sleep on this Canadian team. They’re built for tournament play.
With their solid defensive tactics and exceptional transitional play, expect them to keep each game close and pull off a surprise or two. CONCACAF has traditionally been USA’s or Mexico’s to lose. For the past two decades, it has largely been a two-nation race for the top continental honours. Canada took eight points off of them in the four qualifying matches. This is not a side to underestimate.
Though the odds are stacked against them, this is a Canadian team with the firm belief that they can, and should, advance to the knockout rounds. Though they find themselves in a challenging group, there’s a belief that they can make it to the Round of 16.
At a minimum, securing a couple of results and putting in good performances are expected. But Canada wants more, and so does this team that’s built heavily on the collective. Watch out for Canada.
