One of the stories of the season in English football has undoubtedly been the outstanding performances of Nuno Espírito Santo’s Nottingham Forest, who remain firmly in contention for UEFA Champions League qualification at the time of writing this piece.
At present, they sit in third place in England’s top flight, six points clear of fifth-placed Manchester City.
A Champions League return is certainly still far from a foregone conclusion for the East Midlands side, who famously won back-to-back European Cups in 1978/79 and 1979/80 under the leadership of Brian Clough and Peter Taylor.
Much work is yet to be done if Forest are to get what would be an excellent achievement over the line.
Nevertheless, regardless of what happens between now and the end of the campaign, the 2024/2025 season will certainly go down as a memorable one for the club’s supporters for very good reasons.
Forest’s excellent season has absolutely been the result of a colossal team effort.
Still, there are some crucial figures who stand out for their on-field contributions throughout 2024/2025.
This article uses data to analyse four key players who’ve made up the spine of Nuno Espírito Santo’s team throughout the campaign, helping them reach this position where they’ve earned the opportunity to potentially close out the season in style.
Matz Sels Scout Report 2024/2025
Matz Sels joined Forest from Ligue 1 side Strasbourg just over a year ago for €8m.
Since making his debut versus Bournemouth on the fourth of February 2024, he’s been a Premier League ever-present—the only Forest player to have played 100% of the team’s league minutes this term.
The impact a solid, reliable goalkeeper can have on a team’s overall performance can’t be understated.
Sels has given Forest stability and, crucially, reliability between the sticks this term, ensuring an important, fundamental feature for a successful team was present for this side.
Mat Sells Radar Chart
Looking at the pizza chart in Figure 1, Sels stands out for his save rate, command of the penalty box (aerial duels per 90 and exits per 90), and long ball ratio.
These factors have helped the Belgian keeper rank extremely high among his peers in the EPL and similar leagues this term.
Of course, we also see a very strong performance in clean sheets, but this is more of a team achievement than necessarily an indication of Sels’ own performance, though take nothing away from him—he’s undoubtedly played a crucial role in that success.
Matz Sels Shots Faced
Turning our attention to Figure 2, Sels’ contribution to Forest’s excellent clean sheet record (12 in 29 games, the joint-best clean sheet record in the league alongside Liverpool) becomes evident.
The 33-year-old has faced 40.25 xG in 2024/25 but has conceded 33 league goals, equalling 7.25 prevented goals based on xG faced—a stellar performance from the Forest ‘keeper.
Sels has not been heavily involved in his team’s possession play this term—nor has he needed to be—but he has stood out through his shot-stopping ability.
This ability has helped his team achieve the fourth-best defensive record in the league based on goals conceded at this point in the campaign, a key factor in their current situation.
Murillo Scout Report 2024/2025
Next up, we move on to a player who’s been growing astronomically in status and reputation since joining Forest from Corinthians for €12m in the summer of 2023—Murillo.
The Brazilian centre-back reportedly attracted interest from UEFA Champions League sides after his first EPL campaign just under a year ago.
According to Transfermarkt, his market value increased tenfold from €3.5m at the start of the 2023/24 campaign to €35m by the end of his first Premier League season.
Now, the 22-year-old is valued at as much as €55m by the transfer-focused website thanks to his contribution to Forest’s outstanding 2024/25.
Murillo Radar Chart
According to the pizza chart in Figure 3, Murillo has excelled in defensive positioning (a statistic that combines tackles and interceptions), aerial duel success, dribbles, and dangerous passes per 90 when compared with peers in his position this season.
Murillo Defensive Territory Map
The left-sided centre-back has been particularly vital for Forest inside their own box, with the majority of his interceptions crucially taking place in that part of the pitch.
Murillo has also applied plenty of pressure and committed plenty of defensive actions between his box and the halfway line on that left side of defence.
Murillo Progresive Passes Map
Indeed, when looking at Murillo’s ‘progressive passes per 90’ percentile rank in Figure 3, it doesn’t appear to be a standout area of the 22-year-old’s game.
However, playing for a team that’s made the second-fewest progressive passes in the Premier League this term, Murillo has been a key contributor in that area for his side, making by far the most progressive passes and passes into the final third of any Forest player.
He’s relatively active in carrying the ball forward from left centre-back, getting his head up and trying to drive the team into more advantageous positions, either by playing line-splitting balls down the left or making cross-field passes to switch play to the opposite wing.
Though he doesn’t currently play for a possession-dominant team that likes to use this aspect of his game as much as possible, it is a tool Forest have relied upon at times this term and one that any prospective buying clubs may be attracted by, along with his defensive solidity.
Morgan Gibbs-White Scout Report 2024/2025
Moving further upfield, we arrive in the attacking midfield position where Morgan Gibbs-White has been a key component of Forest’s setup this term.
The 25-year-old has been a key creator and goalscorer from midfield for Forest this term, on top of providing leadership on the pitch, captaining Nuno Espírito Santo’s side on numerous occasions throughout the campaign.
Morgan Gibbs-White Radar Chart
Gibbs-White has provided quite a lot for his team this term, as is backed up by the data in the pizza chart above.
He ranks highly for both goal contribution and xG contribution, in addition to pretty much all possession metrics displayed.
Furthermore, Gibbs-White’s defensive contribution is not too shabby either, painting the picture of a player who contributes to some extent in different phases of play.
Morgan Gibbs-White Heat Map
Looking at the heatmap above, we can see that the Forest playmaker has mainly been active in the left half-space, though he’s also been heavily involved in the right half-space.
He doesn’t get involved as much directly in the centre, preferring to drift out slightly wider to influence play.
Morgan Gibbs-White Shot Assists Map
Gibbs-White’s five assists (and most of his shot assists) have also primarily come from the half-spaces, though he’s also made two assists from further out right via crosses—highlighting from where the midfielder has been most dangerous this term.
Morgan Gibbs-White Shots Map
Lastly, moving on to Figure 9, here we see Gibbs-White’s 2024/25 Premier League shot map.
With an average of 0.13 xG per shot and 5.38 xG in total from 40 shots taken, Gibbs-White is pretty much matching his xG with goals scored at the moment.
He’s taken some shots and scored one goal from outside the box, but most of his attempts on goal have come from very high-percentage locations, leading to decent shot efficiency.
Chris Wood Scout Report 2024/2025
Last but not least, we’ll provide some analysis of centre-forward Chris Wood’s contribution for Nottingham Forest in the 2024/25 campaign.
The New Zealand international has been a reliable goalscorer throughout his career.
At 33, he is currently enjoying his best Premier League campaign, having scored 18 goals in 29 games at the time of writing.
Only Alexander Isak at Wood’s former club, Newcastle United, Erling Haaland at Manchester City and Liverpool legend Mohamed Salah are bettering Wood’s total at this point in the campaign.
Chris Wood Radar Chart
Wood’s goal contribution and xG contribution are clearly the biggest standouts on the pizza chart above, with few other really notable metrics on display.
He has essentially been a finisher for Forest and offered little else to the team’s game, but he’s done his job very well in 2024/25 and played a key role in their progress to this point at the business end of the season.
Chris Wood Shots Map
Wood’s shots have mainly come from around the left side of the six-yard box this term.
The 33-year-old is averaging 0.2 xG per shot—an indication of very good positioning and shot selection leading to his impressive goals tally.
Chris Wood Shot Conversion Rate
Figure 12 highlights Chris Wood’s finishing efficiency versus the league average for the 2024/25 Premier League season.
The above graph also visualises some significant information about Wood’s performances this term.
He’s positioned highest up in the top-left quadrant of the graph, meaning he’s been one of only two players—and the most prolific of the two—to score a high number of goals with relatively few shots taken.
This is indicative of the 33-year-old’s outstanding efficiency in front of goal this term—he hasn’t needed many opportunities to put the ball in the back of the net.
Conclusion
To conclude this data analysis piece, the four players analysed in this article have all played critical roles for Nottingham Forest in their bid for UEFA Champions League qualification this term.
Our analysis has gone into detail and provided data-led perspectives on the four players’ respective contributions for Forest this term, providing insight into how they’ve influenced their team’s success.
