EFL League Two 2023/24: Studying xG Differentials across the league

The EFL League Two table sees five teams separated by just five points at the top of the standings, with last year’s Playoff losers, Stockport County, topping the table with 54 points and newly promoted Wrexham in second with 52 points. After these come Mansfield Town, Crewe Alexandra and Barrow, separated by just one point. 

Notts County have scored the most goals (60), but Stockport County have the highest expected goals (xG) value (52.03). 

At the same time, Colchester United have conceded the most goals (55) — on par with their expected goals against (xGA) tally of 55.52 — the highest in the league.

The below visualisation shows which teams have a positive xG difference and which teams fall into the negative.

Stockport are deservedly top of the table, ranking high for a number of metrics, including the highest xG differential in the league with an expected goals difference of +22.19. 

Mansfield Town (+17.29), AFC Wimbledon (+15.55) and Wrexham (+12.22) are the only other teams with a double-digit positive xG difference.

AFC Wimbledon are, however, disappointingly 10th at the time of writing. Crewe Alexandra (-3.57), Harrogate Town (-6.57) and Crawley Town(-6.20) are the only three teams in the top half of the table with a negative xG differential.

In the bottom half of the table, every team except 16th-placed Bradford City(5.68) have a negative xG difference. Morecambe (-16.54) hold the undesirable place with the worst xG difference in the league, while Colchester United (-12.68) and Sutton United (-12.27) rank second and third bottom for xG difference, respectively. 

Forest Green Rovers, surprisingly, have a decent and better-than-expected xG difference of -2.79.