The Premier League will be one of two leagues handed an extra place in next season’s Champions League after Arsenal’s 3-0 victory over Real Madrid in the first leg of their quarter-final tie.
The top five teams at the end of the campaign will now book a coveted place in UEFA’s top club competition, adding an additional layer of intrigue to the run-in.
With Liverpool on course to win the league and Arsenal well-placed to finish runners-up, two of the five spots already look to be boxed off.
According to the latest odds at Betway, the race for the remaining three positions involves five clubs – Nottingham Forest, Chelsea, Manchester City, Newcastle United and Aston Villa.
A handful of other clubs could feasibly force their way into the top five, although the bookmakers appear to have accurately identified the main contenders. Their remaining fixtures are as follows:
- Nottingham Forest: EVE (H); TOT (A); BRE (H); CRY (A); LEI (H); WHU (A); CHE (H)
- Chelsea: IPS (H); FUL (A); EVE (H); LIV (H); NEW (A); MUN (H); NFO (A)
- Newcastle United: MUN (H); CRY (H); AVL (A); IPS (H); BHA (A); CHE (H); ARS (A); EVE (H)
- Manchester City: CRY (H); EVE (A); AVL (H); WOL (H); SOU (A); BOU (H); FUL (A)
- Aston Villa: SOU (A); NEW (H); MCI (A); FUL (H); BOU (A); TOT (H); MUN (A)
The Fantasy Premier League’s innovative Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR) offer a useful insight into which teams are likely to join Liverpool and Arsenal in the top five.
The FDR tool is based on a complex algorithm that generates a ranking for the perceived difficulty of a team’s opponent. Each fixture is rated from 1 (easy) to 5 (hard) and produces this ranking:
- Nottingham Forest – 2.57
- Manchester City – 2.71
- Newcastle United – 3.00
- Aston Villa – 3.00
- Chelsea – 3.29
Based on FDR, Forest and Man City have the easiest fixtures, which bodes well for their chances of qualifying for next season’s Champions League.
If their fixtures run to form, it is feasible that Newcastle, Villa and Chelsea will battle for the remaining qualification place.
Chelsea’s run-in is packed with banana skins, and it includes tricky trips to Fulham, Newcastle, and Forest. They also face Everton, Liverpool and Manchester United at home.
Given their inconsistent form this season, it would be no surprise if Chelsea dropped out of the top five before the end of the campaign.
That would leave Newcastle and Villa fighting over the other spot. The Magpies have a two-point lead over Villa having played a game fewer.
However, Eddie Howe’s side still has to visit Villa Park on April 19 for a fixture, which could be pivotal in the battle to claim a place in the top five.
A victory for Villa could tip the scales in their favour, particularly with Newcastle scheduled to face Chelsea (H) and Arsenal (A) in their final three fixtures.
There will likely be plenty of twists and turns over the next few weeks, and it would be no surprise if the top-five race is not completely decided until the final day.
