Atalanta: The reasons behind La Dea’s recent struggles in the 2022/23 – scout report

When Atalanta started its winning streak of eight matches at the beginning of October, everyone thought they will be title contenders this season. So how did Atalanta perform afterwards?

Win over Fiorentina (3 points), draw against Udinese (1 point), win over Sassuolo (3 points), defeated by Lazio (0 points), win over Empoli (3 points), defeated by Napoli, Lecce and Inter (0 points each), draw against Spezia Calcio (1 point) and a win in their last match against Bologna (3 points). This makes 14 points out of 30 possible points.

The most concerning is those three lost matches against direct competitors for the Serie A’s Champions League spots. So far Atalanta has taken 1 out of 15 points from teams ahead of them it in the table. If Atalanta is expected to compete at the top of the table, taking points off rivals is compulsory, more than anything to demonstrate that the club belongs at the top of the table.

This scout report will provide a tactical analysis of Atalanta’s most recent matches this season. In this analysis, we will look at the changes made to Gian Piero Gasperini’s tactical approach. The Italian coach has made key changes within his tactics ahead of this season.

Playing system

Although there have been changes to the team’s tactical approach, one thing that Gasperini hasn’t changed is his preference for a three-at-the-back formation. The 3-4-3, 3-4-1-2 and 3-4-2-1 formations have still been the main base formations used by Atalanta this season. These three formations provide the core for Gasperini’s philosophy and have done for most of his career.

As you can see other formations have been used situationally in different matches and for a certain period within matches. This itself is an indication that Gasperini wants to be more adaptable, not just to the opposition but to the players that have been brought to the club in the transfer window.

Defensive Phase

Atalanta’s shot-stopping prevention has been very poor over the course of the last matches. But not only was Atalanta’s shot-stopping prevention poor, but its own shot creation was relatively weak, comparatively speaking. Even though Atalanta may have produced three more non-penalty shots than their opponents, the quality was poor. Atalanta’s average shot was three yards further away, produced 2.5 times less xG, and 3 times less xGoT. The clear-cut chances that opponents were able to create were undeniably beneficial.

This is even more impressive given that e.g. Inter only had three shots on target excluding the own-goal. In key matches, Scudetto-winning teams are able to produce, convert, and capitalise on the necessary high-chance opportunities to steer the tide in their favour. Is Atalanta able to turn on the offensive switch and start doing the same to its opponents?

While Atalanta has only won the possession battle in three of its fifteen matches this season, the recent brand of Atalanta football has seen Atalanta at least bring the possession battle a bit closer to a 50/50 toss-up. But is that necessarily a good thing? Since the Sassuolo match, Atalanta has had at least 47% possession in each match, a figure it hit twice in the first nine matches of the year. A couple of things stick out.

Some of the same worrying trends from last season are starting to creep back into the squad  mainly permitting too many good chances for the opposition that expected models tend to underrate. Atalanta will be on pace to concede over 54 goals this season if these goal trends continue, effectively eliminating Atalanta from Champion’s League contention. Just as a strong defence brought Atalanta to the top of the table early in the season, it has to be the priority to right all the wrongs of these last matches.

One of the reasons for this is that when Atalanta hasn’t got possession, a three-at-the-back formation with wingbacks enables Atalanta to transition into a five-man defence. This then provides them with the structure to be able to switch between a 5-3-2, and a 5-2-3 defensive shape throughout a match.

Under Gasperini, Atalanta’s defensive style has been identified with high-intensity and aggressive pressing and because of the man-to-man marking tactics, they haven’t been accustomed to defending against the ball with a specific defensive shape. Their defensive shape is usually dictated by the opposition’s attacking shape because each player man-marks all over the pitch.

This season has seen this approach adapted, the man-to-man marking approach remains a principle with Gasperini’s tactical approach, it just hasn’t been used continuously through a whole match. It’s used occasionally depending on the situation within the match, usually during the first period of the game against specific opponents.

The example below shows Atalanta’s varied approach sitting in a 5-3-2 high defensive block. They have condensed the space between the lines, but instead of being compact, they are defending with width. Midfielder Maarten De Roon is about to put pressure on the ball and switch the defensive block from a 5-3-2 to a 5-2-3 as they look to stop Fiorentina during their build-up.

Instead of pursuing the ball aggressively, they are maintaining their shape and forcing the play into certain areas. The purpose of this type of defensive shape is to force the opposition wide by stopping any vertical progression through the centre of the pitch and forcing the opposition out wide where they can then press immediately without shifting across.

Defending deep and defending wide can be a high-risk approach as it creates more space between each defender for the opposition to attack. If possession is won as intended, it presents more options across the pitch for a counterattack. More options make it harder for the opposition to prepare for them.

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