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World Cup · Round of 16

USA vs Belgium Prediction, Odds & Best Bets

USAUSA
1–4
Full time
BelgiumBelgium
kick-off · Round of 16
Venue Lumen Field · Seattle
Referee Adham Mohammad, Jordan
Round Round of 16
Kick-off
TFA BEST BETConfidence 2/3 · model 45%
Recommended bet
Belgium to win
Model 45% vs implied 34% — edge +11%
2.90
best at Betninja
Model angle · Double chance : draw or Belgium
Best value: Draw +17% — model rates it higher than the 3.51 price at Pinnacle
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USA are rated 10% to win, with the draw at 45% and Belgium at 45%. The model's recommended angle is Double chance : draw or Belgium, where the price still understates the true chance.

Implied vs model

Win probability — TFA model
USA10%
Draw45%
Belgium45%
Recent form
USAWWLW
BelgiumDDWW
Last 5 goals — USA 10 for / 4 ag · Belgium 9 for / 4 ag
Head-to-head strength
53%Form47%
53%Attack47%
50%Defense50%
48%Overall52%
Recent head-to-head
USA v Belgium2-52026-03-28
Belgium v USA2-12014-07-01
See every book's price for USA vs Belgium→
Popular betsAll markets →
Correct Score
1:1 7.00Betninja
2:1 10.00Betninja
1:0 12.00Betninja
Anytime Scorer
Brandon Mechele 13.00Betninja
Auston Trusty 13.00Betninja
Tim Ream 13.00Betninja
Double Chance
Draw/Away 1.56Betninja
Home/Draw 1.47Betninja
Home/Away 1.35Betninja
Group D standings
# Team Pld GD Pts Form
1 USA 3 +4 6 LWLWW
2 Australia 3 0 4 LDLW
3 Paraguay 3 -2 4 LWDWL
4 Türkiye 3 -2 3 WLL
Group G standings
# Team Pld GD Pts Form
1 Belgium 3 +4 5 WWWDD
2 Egypt 3 +2 5 LWDWD
3 Iran 3 0 3 DDD
4 New Zealand 3 -6 1 LLD

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18+
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