The road to the 2024/2025 FA Cup final continues apace during February as the fourth round of the prestigious knockout competition is staged.
Picking the potential winner of the FA Cup with 32 teams still remaining may seem like a tricky task, but recent trends paint a different picture.
A quick look on the top football betting sites tells a similar story, with several recent FA Cup winners dominating proceedings at the top of the outright market.
With that in mind, read on as we look at the fourth-round draw before taking a deeper dive into previous finals and the statistical trends they have generated.
FA Cup 2024/2025 – Fourth Round Draw
The draw for the fourth round of the 2024/25 FA Cup is as follows
- Manchester United vs Leicester City
- Leeds United vs Millwall
- Brighton & Hove Albion vs Chelsea
- Exeter City vs Nottingham Forest
- Preston North End vs Wycombe Wanderers
- Coventry City vs Ipswich Town
- Blackburn Rovers vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mansfield Town vs Fulham
- Birmingham City vs Newcastle United
- Plymouth Argyle vs Liverpool
- Everton vs Bournemouth
- Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur
- Leyton Orient vs Manchester City
- Southampton vs Burnley
- Doncaster Rovers vs Crystal Palace
- Stoke City vs Cardiff City
FA Cup – Recent Finals
- 2023/24 – Manchester United 2-1 Manchester City
- 2022/23 – Manchester City 2-1 Manchester United
- 2021/22 – Liverpool 0-0 Chelsea (6-5 penalties)
- 2020/21 – Leicester City 1-0 Chelsea
- 2019/20 – Arsenal 2 -1 Chelsea
- 2018/19 – Manchester City 6-0 Watford
- 2017/18 – Chelsea 1-0 Manchester United
- 2016/17 – Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea
- 2015/16 – Manchester United 2-1 Crystal Palace
- 2014/15 – Arsenal 4-0 Aston Villa
- 2013/14 – Arsenal 3-2 Hull City
- 2012/13 – Wigan Athletic 1-0 Manchester City
- 2011/12 – Chelsea 2 -1 Liverpool
- 2010/11 – Manchester City 1 -0 Stoke City
- 2009/10 – Chelsea 1-0 Portsmouth
- 2008/09 – Chelsea 2-1 Everton
- 2007/08 – Portsmouth 1-0 Cardiff City
- 2006/07 – Chelsea 1-0 Manchester United
- 2005/06 – Liverpool 3-3 West Ham United (3-1 penalties)
- 2004/05 – Arsenal 0-0 Manchester United (5-4 penalties)
- 2003/04 – Manchester United 3-0 Millwall
- 2002/03 – Arsenal 1 -0 Southampton
- 2001/02 – Arsenal 2 -0 Chelsea
- 2000/01 – Liverpool 2-1 Arsenal
FA Cup – Statistical Trends
While the FA Cup has traditionally been associated with shock results, recent finals suggest that the cream eventually rises to the top of the competition.
Five of the so-called ‘Big Six’ clubs dominate the FA Cup roll of honour, winning 21 of the 24 finals staged since the turn of the century.
Arsenal led the way with seven successes during that timeframe, but they will not be adding to their tally after losing against Manchester United in the third round this year.
Chelsea’s tally of five successes makes them the second most successful club in the FA Cup this century, and they have made it through to round four.
They visit Brighton & Hove Albion in one of four all-Premier League ties – Man United vs Leicester City, Everton vs Bournemouth and Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur are the others.
Man United, Manchester City, and Liverpool have each lifted the trophy three times during the 21st century, and they will expect to make further progress this season.
Fans who think there may be a shock outcome in the competition would be well-advised to take note of a relatively damning statistic where ‘smaller clubs’ are concerned.
Only Portsmouth (2007/08), Wigan Athletic (2012/13) and Leicester City (2020/21) have lifted the trophy outside of the ‘Big Six’ this century.
Tottenham’s absence from the roll of honour adds weight to the theory that the concept of a ‘Big Six’ in English football is hugely flawed.
Their only major trophy in recent years was the League Cup in 2007/08, and they have not won the FA Cup since defeating Nottingham Forest in the 1990/91 final.
While the other quintet of top clubs have largely hogged the FA Cup between them in the new millennium, there have been several surprise finalists in recent years.
These include Southampton (2002/03), Millwall (2003/04), Cardiff City (2007/08). Portsmouth (2009/10) and Stoke City (2010/11).
Hull City (2013/14), Crystal Palace (2015/16) and Watford (2018/19) have also upset the odds to reach the final of the world’s most famous knockout competition.
Leicester are the only non-Big Six club to reach a final in the past five seasons, and they got the job done by beating Chelsea 1-0 at Wembley Stadium.
Given the recent history of the competition, it seems reasonable to predict that the winner of the 2024/25 FA Cup will likely be either Man City, Man United, Chelsea or Liverpool.
