A fixture that highlights the beauty of the UEFA Conference League.
Two sides from two of the lowest coefficient-ranked UEFA nations are facing each other in European competition.
On Thursday in Belfast, Northern Irish back-to-back champions Larne will face the Republic of Ireland’s four-in-a-row title winners Shamrock Rovers.
For both sides to play in European competition is remarkable.
This is just Shamrock Rovers’ third time qualifying for the group/league phase of a European competition since the turn of the century.
For Larne, this isn’t only their first venture into Europe; it’s also the first time a side from Northern Ireland has qualified for the League/Group phase of any European competition.
Both sides come into this fixture with domestic distractions.
Shamrock Rovers have made a miraculous recovery in the league.
With only two fixtures remaining, they are just two points off the summit of the League of Ireland.
Larne FC has an action-packed schedule, having had several games postponed due to their European commitments.
Despite having four games in hand in the league, their form has been poor, and they’ll want to continue to gain ground on title rivals Linfield.
Shamrock Rovers will be the overwhelming favourites, but Larne will believe this is an excellent opportunity for them to prove they belong amongst the European elite.
Shamrock Rovers Tactical Analysis
Shamrock Rovers Line Up:
Stephen Bradley’s tactics set up in a reserved 3-5-1-1 against APOEL.
This helped them earn just their third point in their past three European campaigns.
However, Rovers will surely revert back to their usual 3-4-2-1 against Larne.
In front of German keeper Pöhls, a back three of captain Robert Lopes, Cleary and Grace will be present.
The creative Dylan Watts and Joshua Honohan will fill the wing-back roles.
Central midfield will be filled with combative midfielder Darragh Nugent and summer signing Danny Mândroiu.
The two attacking midfield roles will likely be filled by a combination of Burns and Farrugia.
Up front, Celtic loanee John Kenny will lead the line.
Shamrock Rovers Attacking Analysis:
To start our Shamrock Rovers tactical analysis, when building up play under Stephen Bradley’s style of play, the Tallaght side tends typically to play in a controlled manner in terms of their tactics and setup.
Their shape gives them an incredible advantage when trying to build up through the middle of midfield.
Having a back three often allows teams to have a man advantage against a team that plays with one or two forwards.
Then, they have four players in midfield, creating a box midfield.
This is incredibly effective when looking to play through the thirds.
Statistically, Rovers can be clearly seen to be efficient when building up play.
They have the highest PPDA against them in the League of Ireland, which shows how difficult it is to press them.
They also have made the most progressive passes in the league this season.
In this example, we see clearly how Rovers have filled the midfield during their side’s build-up play.
Goalkeeper Pohls is able to find midfielder Nugent, who is one of four options centrally.
The Hoops have a couple of ways that they can break sides down.
Using the pace and athleticism of their attacking players, they’re very capable of getting behind the opposition’s backline.
Under Stephen Bradley’s coaching style, Rovers have made the most through balls in the League of Ireland this season.
Here, Kenny makes an intelligent run in behind the defence and is found with an inch-perfect pass, which allows him to break through and score.
They also have a fantastic ability to work the ball out wide and score from crosses.
Rovers average the second most crosses per 90 in the League of Ireland (17.57).
Dylan Watts and Darragh Burns, in particular, provide real quality for their ability to cross the ball.
Both players are ranked in the top 10 for accurate crosses in the LOI.
In this situation, Joshua Honohan delivers an excellent ball into the box that’s met brilliantly by veteran striker Aaron Greene’s head and finds the back of the net.
Shamrock Rovers Defensive Analysis:
When pressing from the front, Rovers centre forward and two attacking midfielders will press aggressively to win the ball back high up the pitch.
They have the highest PPDA (7.19), demonstrating their effectiveness when pressing.
As the opposition begins playing the ball out from the back, Kenny begins Shamrock Rovers’ press, forcing the opposition out wide.
As the ball travels wide, the right-sided attacking midfielder works hard to force play away from the middle of the pitch again.
Rovers are very efficient defensively.
They’ve conceded only 34 goals this season in the LOI.
However, often, they can be the architects of their own downfall.
Stephen Bradley’s preference is to play out from the back can cost them, especially against teams that want to press aggressively.
In this situation, Rovers have been forced out wide due to the opposition’s aggressive press.
The opposition are pressing man for man and have cut off all options to play forward into midfield.
This leads to the player on the ball hesitating for a split second.
The pressing player nicks the ball and then plays his teammate through on goal, who scores.
Another area where Rovers look fragile is defending set-pieces.
With the second-highest aerial duels win percentage in the LOI, they’ve proven their ability to defend in the air.
Rovers have looked comfortable dealing with deliveries into the front post when defending corners.
However, they’ve conceded several goals over recent weeks from corner kicks being played to the back post area.
Here, a ball is played deep into the penalty area.
Several of the opposition’s attackers take up the front post area.
This draws several defenders away from the central area where the ball is eventually played to, allowing the opposition to make first contact and score.
Larne FC Analysis
Larne Lineup:
Similar to Shamrock Rovers, under Tiernan Lynch’s tactics, Larne played a defensive 5-4-1 formation in their opening Europa Conference League tie.
Playing against an opposition who are more of a similar match, they are likely to revert to their much used 3-5-2.
Rohan Ferguson will be the keeper behind a back three of former Inter Milan player Ryan Nolan, Shaun Want and Sam Todd.
Tomas Cosgrove and Levi Ives are likely to play at wing-back.
The midfield three will consist of George Marsh, Dylan Sloan and Jordan McEneff.
Upfront, last season’s top goalscorer Andy Ryan will be partnered by Northern Ireland u21 international Matthew Lusty.
Larne Attacking Analysis:
Under Tiernan Lynch’s style of play, Larne struggled at the start of the season to be as prolific as they have been over the past couple of seasons.
New arrivals, constant personnel rotation, and added respect from opponents have probably all contributed to their failure to be as prolific.
They’ve managed nine goals in 8 games, which looks considerably short of the required standard when title challengers Linfield have scored 23 in 12 games.
Although many of Larne’s attacking powers are still on display.
They have the highest PPDA against and have also averaged the most progressive passes per 90.
This highlights their ability to play out from the back.
Yet what’s most impressive is Larne’s ability to go long during their team’s build-up play.
Here, we see that Larne has been pressed aggressively.
Keeper Rohan Ferguson decides to go long.
However, this is far from a hopeful hit forward.
He plays a pinpoint pass to the feet of striker Andy Ryan, giving Larne a platform to build from.
Larne are excellent at using their centre forwards.
One of their key methods to breaking teams down is playing off their front two.
Larne’s strikers Andy Ryan, Matthew Lusty and Paul O’Neill all have an amazing ability to maintain possession and bring their teammates into the game.
In this example, the balls played forward into the feet of one of Larne’s forwards.
This offers a platform for supporting runs from midfielders and wing-backs.
The powerful running of Larne’s midfielders is also a crucial part of their game.
Part of Larne averaging the third most through balls per 90 is the positive runs that their midfield three make.
Here, wing-back Levi Ives has the ball and plays a fantastic ball for Sean Graham’s run.
Graham is then able to play a first-time cross, which is met by an attacker’s head at the back post.
Larne Defensive Analysis:
Part of Larne’s poor league form has been down to them being more frail defensively than last season.
Currently, they concede 0.75 goals per 90 minutes, which is higher than their average of 0.55 goals conceded per 90 minutes.
They still have shown some impressive defensive elements to their performance this season.
Like Shamrock Rovers, they aim to force play out wide when pressing.
In their first European tie, they showed an ability to adopt a resolute structure.
Here, we see how Larne have protected the middle of the pitch, forcing the ball out wide.
Larne have also proven domestically that they have the ability to press aggressively.
They have the 2nd highest PPDA (8.11) in NIFL this season.
However, Larne’s problems have come from how they’ve defended in their own third under Tiernan Lynch’s coaching style.
They’ve conceded several goals from cutbacks already this season.
This example shows how the opposition has broken into a crossing position.
Larne’s defenders have obviously dropped deep into the box to protect the goal.
Yet Levi Ives is entirely unaware of the right winger who drifts into the box and scores.
Larne has also struggled when defending set pieces this season.
50% of the goals they’ve conceded in the league this season have come from set pieces.
Larne have also failed to defend corner kicks effectively like Shamrock Rovers.
Again, Larne have a brilliant aerial duel win percentage of 50% in NIFL.
Teams have caught them out through clever setups despite their aerial dominance.
Similar to the example we saw with Shamrock Rovers, Larne’s opposition piled into the front post area with players looking to make first contact with the cross.
However, the delivery is played to the back post, where an opponent outjumps his marker and scores.
Conclusion
This game should be fascinating as both teams will believe they have the ammunition to exploit their opponent’s weaknesses.
Our analysis shows that by aggressively pressing Shamrock Rovers, Larne may be able to force mistakes from the Dublin club.
Rovers will believe that their creativity and ability to make countless dangerous passes and crosses will open up a Larne side that is still trying to gel together.
