Atlético Mineiro and Botafogo will play in the Copa Libertadores Final to decide the 2024 South American champions.
Gabriel Milito at Mineiro and Artur Jorge at Botafogo are both experiencing their first managerial stints in Brazil.
They led their teams to eliminate River Plate and Peñarol, respectively, in the semi-finals—the last remaining non-Brazilian contenders.
In this tactical preview and analysis, we will examine the tactics both teams used to get to the Final.
Atlético Mineiro Vs Botafogo Predicted Lineups
Atlético Mineiro Formation & Lineup
With well-known names in Europe like Hulk, Deyverson, Paulinho, Edu Vargas, Lyanco, Rodrigo Battaglia, Bernard, etc., Milito’s Mineiro possesses much experience in their squad.
The Argentinian coach seems determined to use a back three from the start, as has mainly been the case during this season.
Although Edu Vargas and Bernard are in form, we will probably see a 3-4-2-1 with Hulk and Paulinho near Deyverson as the attacking combo.
Junior Alonso and Rodrigo Battaglia will surely start at the back, so the right centre-back is the doubt between Lyanco, Renzo Saravia and Bruno Fuchs.
Alan Franco will start in midfield, and his partner could be surprising, but Fausto Vera is the favourite ahead of Otávio or Igor Gomes.
Meanwhile, the wing-backs will be Gustavo Scarpa and Guilherme Arana.
Predicted Atlético Mineiro Line-up (3-4-2-1): Everson; Lyanco, Rodrigo Battaglia, Junior Alonso; Gustavo Scarpa, Fausto Vera, Alan Franco, Guilherme Arana; Hulk, Paulinho; Deyverson.
Unavailable: Matías Zaracho (injured).
Botafogo Formation & Lineup
On the other hand, Artur Jorge’s Botafogo mainly play a fluid 4-2-3-1.
The final third is clear: Thiago Almada, Jefferson Savarino and Luiz Henrique behind the striker Igor Jesus.
Theoretically, Gregore and Marlon Freitas will be the double pivot.
There can be some variants in the backline because of injury to Bastos, Mineiro’s best centre-back.
Alexander Barboza should be the left centre-back, while Adryelson seems like Bastos’ substitute.
Alex Telles will be the left-back and Vitinho the right-back.
Predicted Botafogo Lineup (4-2-3-1): John Victor; Vitinho, Adryelson, Alexander Barboza, Alex Telles; Marlon Freitas, Gregore; Luiz Henrique, Jefferson Savarino, Thiago Almada; Igor Jesus.
Atlético Mineiro’s Match Plan & Current Form
Milito’s Mineiro are the top scorers in Copa Libertadores 2024 (21), led by their top scorer, Paulinho, with 7 goals.
Atlético Mineiro Shots Map
In terms of volume of play, Atlético Mineiro are a machine.
For a match like this Final, their attacking trio is a guarantee.
Deyverson is a showman in these types of scenarios; he has scored four times and assisted once in five appearances in this tournament.
His intensity, goalscorer instinct and magical personality will shine every time he touches the ball in this Final.
He also understands how to approach a final like this; he scored the winning goal in Libertadores’ 2021 Final at Palmeiras against Flamengo.
His most common way to score is unmarking himself inside the penalty box.
Situations like those seen in Figure 3 happen many times per match.
Usually, Gustavo Scarpa and Guilherme Arana make the pitch larger through positioning width.
Then, considering Mineiro have quality at their feet, they can create chances by combining with short passes until getting those opportunities.
But they are versatile and capable of creating big chances by sending long balls from the backline.
Mineiro’s rivals must be attentive, not break their defensive line, and cover depth well.
As shown in Figure 4, Hulk’s physical power can make a difference in winning duels and other attackers picking up the second ball.
Even the roles do not need to be the same as in Figure 3 — Hulk or Paulinho could win the second ball while Deyverson faces the duel.
Alongside their capacity to combine, Mineiro’s defensive system is designed to recover the ball as fast as possible.
Atlético Mineiro Defensive Territory Map
Instead of closing inner channels from the beginning of the pressure, Mineiro invites their rivals to play through and then recover aggressively by eliminating potential restarts.
Everyone stays close to their mark to increase the intensity of the defensive phase.
They alternate their shape constantly and adapt to the rival’s shape using man-to-man marking.
This can be the key, with Botafogo making many rotations and their players leaving their zone.
Botafogo’s Match Plan & Current Form
After a crazy path in the knockout stages and not finishing top of their group at the beginning of the season, Botafogo’s current reality could not be better.
They have only conceded six goals in October and November.
The key to the match can be the players behind the striker: Thiago Almada, Jefferson Savarino, and Luiz Henrique, mainly the first and second.
Their plan should be to steal the ball possession.
How can they do that?
Well, not easily, but they managed it in their latest match against Mineiro.
Using those three from the attacking midfield zone with some freedom can cause mismatches for Mineiro when they get set up in their man-to-man marking.
Each one can send long balls from deeper zones, progress quickly but accurately from between the lines, or even make unmarking runs into finishing zones.
Jefferson Savarino & Thiago Almada Progressive Passes Map
Both Savarino and Almada tend to progress through passes or quick interventions with the ball from many areas of the pitch.
The Venezuelan is one of the most in-form players on the continent right now, and he is prepared for this big match against his former team.
Attacking incisively, Savarino is a weapon that disappears from the defender’s radar and gets excellent opportunities as a result.
His reading of the game is privileged, and his associative play is fruitful when the ball is at his feet, or he makes off-the-ball movements, as in Figure 8.
He is subtle and elegant, even discreet, but his method of damaging the opposition is effective.
These types of unmarking runs are as dangerous as Savarino’s because he has the personality and accuracy to do them from more central positions, where many players occupy zones.
However, Botafogo’s defensive style of play starkly contrasts Mineiro’s approach.
Botafogo Defensive Territory Map
Sinking deeper than Mineiro, Botafogo’s volume and intensity without the ball is less than what they are facing, as is their capacity to win duels.
That is why Botafogo should take care of the possession.
Botafogo can be comfortable by dominating the ball and not entering the potential full-physical match that Mineiro will try to propose.
Mineiro also will look for many long shots after recovering the ball.
Data also indicates that John Victor, Botafogo’s goalkeeper, is underperforming in the net.
John Victor Shots Faced Map
Figure 10 shows John Victor’s shots faced from Copa Libertadores 2024.
It seems like Victor does not perform well against long shots when some players block his visuals and the ball goes to far angles, where he needs to make a good full-length save.
Conclusion
Considering Botafogo’s physical struggles, the goalkeeper’s troubles, and their excellence in possession, it seems like this Libertadores Final will be decided by ball possession.
Atlético Mineiro can surely adapt to more reactive passes.
Still, Botafogo should be strong defensively and take care of the ball in the first passes if they do not want to lose the ball in dangerous positions.
Obviously, previous experience in these types of scenarios will be important.
Players like Deyverson and Hulk will be hungry for competitive blood, exposing their physical and technical superiorities.
Savarino or Almada will try to make big appearances, although they were not the biggest names on the continent before the current Libertadores.
We will definitely enjoy a fantastic Copa Libertadores in terms of names, tactics, and general performances.
