Unlocking Goals: Nacional’s offensive explosion engineered by Tiago Margarido – tactical analysis

For much of the 21st century, CD Nacional have been in the Primeira Liga, Portugals top flight. However, they have spent each of the last three seasons, including the current one, in Liga Portugal 2, where theyve spent five of their last seven seasons overall.

Last season was particularly bad for the team as it finished 14th in the standings with a mere 39 points from 34 matches, only four clear of the relegation zone and a whopping 24 points adrift of the final promotion spot. A change was needed, and for the second consecutive season, Nacional sacked their manager just a year after his appointment.

The clubs hierarchy handed the first team to 35-year-old Tiago Margarido, giving him only a one-year contract. They did plenty of transfer business, largely in the free-agent market, signing eight players and loaning in three more, while eight players departed the club as well.

What has happened since has been simply remarkable. Margaridos men currently sit third in Liga Portugal 2 with 37 points (already three more than the whole of last season) from 19 matches, five behind leaders Santa Clara. They are the leagues most productive team with 36 goals scored, averaging almost two per game, and boast a formidable home record (seven wins and two draws in nine matches).

Margarido has changed the fortunes of this side overnight and this tactical analysis report will performing analysis on their stats, best performing players, and attacking and defensive tactics.

Background

Margarido, despite being only 35 and not having played professional football, boasts plenty of experience in European football as he has been involved with clubs since his late 20s.

In 2017, he joined current fourth-tier Portuguese side Oliveira do Douro as their assistant manager and spent one season there before undertaking the same role at Liga Portugal 2 side Leiria. Midway through the 2018/19 campaign, he joined Canelas 2010, who are now in the third tier, as their assistant manager and became their manager prior to the 2019/20 season.

Margarido spent three seasons with Canelas before moving to Varzim in the third tier. His stint with Varzim was brief as he was only in charge from July 2022 to February 2023, during which they played 23 matches across competitions and 13 while losing six. At the time of his departure, the club were fourth in the table, occupying the final promotion playoff spot. They ended the season in fifth place.

In July last year, Margarido was appointed as Nacionals manager, and so far, he has justified the faith placed in him.

The stats behind Nacionals offensive explosion this season

What makes Nacionals surge this season interesting is in the fact that many of their underlying statistics arent too different from last season.

For instance, they are averaging only marginally more shots (13.86 with 35.00% on target vs 12.65 with 33.50% in 2022/23), aerial duels (40.79 vs 38.47), forward passes (124.89 at 71.40% accuracy vs 124.88 at 70.40% accuracy) and progressive passes (65.16 at 73.20% accuracy vs 63.94 at 72.20% accuracy) per game. They have also dropped in a few areas, such as passes (342.26 vs 350.47) and counterattacks (1.79 vs 1.82) per game. However, the areas in which they have shown improvement have automatically improved their offensive ceiling.

The two metrics that directly influence results more than the others is the goals per game and xG per game, both of which have improved from last season. While Nacional underperformed their xG last season and are overperforming it this time around, their overall chance creation has been better, which should see them continue to win games even if they return to their expected production.

This can also be understood by looking at a comparison of their shotmaps from last season to this. The cluster of shots from outside the box is much lower on the right-sided image, with more shots from central areas inside the box as well.