The 68th season of the European premier class, the 31st since being renamed the UEFA Champions League, starts on September 6th, 2022 and ends on June 10th, 2023. The final will be played at the Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, home of the Turkish national team. This arena hosted the final in 2005 when Liverpool clinched the title on penalties after falling 3-0 against AC Milan.
In this data analysis, we will take a look at this UEFA Champions League campaign based on the Elo system. Additionally, in this analysis, we will discover data and statistics of all competitors.
How does it work?
Elo estimates the strength of a club based on the results against opponents and their strength. The Elo system works with only a single number, the Elo value. The difference in Elo points between two teams directly translates to a likelihood of winning against that team.
The expected number of Elo points gained from the next match is always zero. That means that over and underperforming over one or more games can be recognised by the number of Elo points won or lost in these games. That makes it very easy to actually judge how good a result or set of results has/have been.
Every games influence decreases when new games are played. In this way, a clubs Elo rating is a combination of all its previous results with games from the distant past having only a microscopic influence and the newest games influencing the rating most.
To conclude, Elo ratings put a clubs results into perspective. Leagues vary greatly in quality and a metric that takes opposition strength into account is indispensable to compare clubs across leagues.
Overview
The Elo rating of all UEFA Champions League Competitors is within the range of 1,500 and 2,100. The average value of all attendees is 1,795. This is approximately the quality of clubs like Leverkusen (1,769), Juventus (1,790), Benfica (1,796) and Sevilla (1,799). The five weakest clubs are FC Copenhagen (1,571), Maccabi Haifa (1,606), Viktoria Pilsen (1,611), Club Brugge (1629) and Donezk (1,639). The five best clubs are Ajax Amsterdam (1,887), Bayern Munich (1,967), Real Madrid (1,994), Liverpool FC (2,013) and Manchester City (2,032). Therefore, the likeliness to win the trophy for Manchester City is the highest according to the Elo rating. However, the course of the knockout phase with possible opponents is not taken into account.
Group A
In Group A, the attendees are Ajax Amsterdam (Netherlands), Liverpool FC (England), Napoli (Italy) and Rangers (Scotland). According to the Elo ratings, Liverpool FC (2,013) is the biggest favourite in Group A. They are followed by Ajax Amsterdam (1,887). Therefore, two out of the best five competitors in this year’s campaign will face each other in the group stage already. Napoli (1,805) is likely to end the group stage in third place. This would mean that they qualify for the UEFA Europa League knockout phase. Rangers (1,725) are the biggest outsiders in this group.
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