Data Analysis: Defensive records of each team in EFL League One

Throughout the history of football, most successful teams have thrived on a strong defensive foundation. Of course, there are exceptions to that rule — teams that approach games with the mantra of simply outscoring the opposition. Each of the three divisions within the EFL is notoriously difficult, physical, and unpredictable, and in modern years, the gap between the Championship and League One has grown even larger in terms of quality and financial power. In line with that notion, it makes perfect sense that getting promoted from League One with a strong defensive record is likely to give the club a boost in their prospects when preparing for the following season. Think of it this way, if a side goes up having conceded, say, 30 goals over a 46-game campaign, the club in question are less likely to invest in new defensive talent than a team that gets promoted having conceded 50+ goals.

This theory of a strong defensive record applies to those fighting for survival at the opposite end of the table. If you’re shipping two or three goals most weeks, you are really limiting your chances of staying up. In this data analysis, we will look at the defensive statistics of each of the 24 clubs in EFL League One, with an analysis of each side’s numbers in several key areas including tackling, pressing, and more. All data used comes before matchday 33 of the League One campaign but after matchday 32.

Conceding goals – less is more

The bedrock of a successful defensive unit is conceding as fewer goals as possible. There are various tactics and systems that differ from each other that set out to keep goals out, whether a team sits deep and invites the opposition possession into their half, or whether they play a high line with an aggressive press, it comes down to player quality and the understanding and application of tactical instructions. This segment will analyse the pure statistics of each team when it comes to keeping the ball out of the net.

Collecting clean sheets on a consistent basis is a key indicator of a strong, dominant team. Of course, it needs to be balanced with a prolific attacking unit, but very few teams experience failure with a high number of clean sheets, so it comes as no surprise that some of the best-ranking teams in the graph above are teams competing for promotion places.

Sheffield Wednesday have the best defensive record in the entire division when it comes to clean sheets, with an immense total of 18 shut-outs so far this campaign. That equates to collecting a clean sheet in 60% of their league fixtures, which is beyond impressive and is a huge part of why Darren Moore’s side is fighting for the League One title. 

Fellow promotion rivals and ex-Premier League side Bolton Wanderers also have a desirable record, registering 17 clean sheets.  Interestingly, long-time title contenders Plymouth Argyle have a somewhat less-impressive defensive record, at the time of writing, registering 11 clean sheets which equates to shutting the opponent out just 35% of the time. Could this end up being a downfall in their promotion bid or will they be successful despite this?

At the other end of the scale, it will come as little surprise that Forest Green Rovers have kept just two clean sheets all season, a huge factor in them finding themselves facing relegation to League Two. Oxford also struggle in consistent defensive performances, keeping just three clean sheets so far, but rarely concede more than two goals in a game. They find themselves 17th in the table with some fair distance between themselves and the drop zone.

Drilling a little further past just clean sheet record, we can now see how much of a difference a good defensive record makes in regards to a league placing. The example that stands out immediately is Forest Green in the top left, sitting in bottom place at the time of writing, conceding the most goals (59 goals). However, shift your eyes to the opposite corner of the graph and you’ll see all the top six towards the better end of defensive records. 

Plymouth conceding 32 goals in 31 games extends upon the previous point about their record, but as you can see, they aren’t exactly leaking goals to a concerning level. Wycombe (29 goals) and Shrewsbury (33 goals) will be happy with their defensive records despite sitting just outside of the play-off places, and their defensive strengths could be something that pushes them into clutching a top-six spot. We touched upon Sheffield Wednesday’s impressive defensive performances before, but it is noteworthy that they have conceded just 20 goals in 30 games, so it is no wonder they are on the brink of a return to the Championship.

Physicality

Diving slightly deeper into how teams avoid danger, even with a depth of tactical instruction from the manager, strong defensive performances can often come down to individuals winning their battles. This segment of data analysis will look at the statistics of how each team performs when it comes to varying duels. 

Here, we look at overall duels, all over the pitch, as a measurement of defensive engagement and aggression. As you can see, the graph has an average line to split different areas to help us draw certain conclusions. For instance, Fleetwood pop up again in the top right corner, this time indicating   that they get involved in a high portion of various duels, averaging 260.20 duels per 90, with a win rate of 48.24%. Ultimately, they rank in the top few in both duels attempted and win %.

Charlton, placed 11th, have the division’s highest win rate in overall duels (48.55%), while they offer a lower duels attempt total of 231.47 per 90, indicating a cautiousness in engaging despite a high success rate. Meanwhile, Ipswich and MK Dons offer the lowest number of duels attempted, with both nearing the average in terms of win %. However, those two clubs are a reminder to consider all other data as well as live performances rather than drawing judgement on one metric — while MK Dons are struggling in the league, Ipswich are firmly in the playoff picture.

To get a deeper insight into how successful each team is in various duels, we can now see the proficiency of each club in aerial and defensive duels. Interestingly, a host of clubs follow a similar pattern of struggling in one of the two metrics and thriving in the other. For instance, Barnsley rank the lowest in winning defensive duels (59.11%, but offer a more average ranking in aerial duels. Then, we have Cambridge, currently fighting for their League One status, with the second lowest win rate for defensive duels (59.86%) in the league, but one of the better aerial duel win rates of 47.67%. 

It probably goes without saying that Sheffield Wednesday rank high in both metrics — the highest win rate in aerial duels actually, while defensive energetics Fleetwood impress in defensive duels, but credit should also go to Charlton as they impress across both areas in comparison to the rest of the league.

For a team 20 points from the playoffs, Fleetwood seem to have the defensive side of their game nailed down. They have the 11th-best record in the league when it comes to goals conceded, and have displayed strengths in other defensive metrics as we have discussed, and they continue that trend here. They are miles away from the other 23 clubs in terms of slide tackles per 90 (5.7) and their number of successful attempts per 90 (3.2), leading the way in impressive form.

Meanwhile, we see a low engagement and success rate from Ipswich, but don’t forget their league position! Their defensive system relies upon unit work and simply blocking the opposition from reaching dangerous territory.

Regaining possession 

While the main purpose of defending is to keep the ball out of your own goal, it also serves another obvious purpose of winning the ball back — both stopping the opponent from attacking and giving the initial defending team a chance to launch an attack of their own. Here, we will analyse the numbers behind areas such as recoveries and interceptions.

Recovering possession consistently, regardless of the pitch position, is important of course, but the ranking of some of the teams on here tells you about the tactics of those sides. For instance, teams who like to dominate games and see more possession, and defend less, will of course need to make fewer recoveries — as evidenced by Sheffield Wednesday’s ranking that is slightly above average. 

Barnsley take the crown when it comes to winning the ball back, recording a whopping 103.9 recoveries per 90; Plymouth are a close second with 95.06. Both sides are having a good season that holds a strong potential for promotion, so recoveries may be an important part of picking up points. 

Teams such as Wycombe, Oxford, Derby, Cheltenham, and Accrington all boast impressive recovery records yet have differing league positions. This only cements the notion that winning the ball back across any area of the pitch can be key to a team regardless of their tactics and league season objectives.

Putting a scope on recoveries, we are able to look at which teams are more aggressive in higher areas of the pitch. Applying high pressure in the opposition’s half is often a tactical element of more confident teams, aka teams higher up the table, which, for the most part, is what we see above.

As you see, Ipswich lead the way for high recoveries, averaging 16.03 high regains per 90 minutes, with only 18th-placed Burton Albion coming close to that (15.57), somewhat breaking the initial notion mentioned before. Maybe Burton, along with Exeter and Oxford, are exceptions to the rule, as promotion hopefuls Barnsley (14.41), Bolton (14.22), and Wycombe (14.7) all rank high.

This final graph relates to the area of recoveries, as interceptions involve breaking down opposition possession and attacks, and can often provide a chance of a turnover. While we do see a couple of playoff contenders high up on this list — Barnsley (47.28), and Wycombe (47.6) — many of the high-rankers, are teams who aren’t currently in the picture.

In fact, 18th-placed Cheltenham lead the way for the most interceptions for 90 (48.6), closely followed by the likes of Lincoln (48.34), and Morecambe (47.2). We also see strong registers from teams like Bristol Rovers, Cambridge, Fleetwood, Oxford, and Port Vale — all teams who aren’t exactly expected to make the top six cut. The possible reason for these teams ranking higher is that they have less possession than other certain sides, giving them more opportunities to intercept possession.

Conclusion

If this data analysis has shone a light on anything, it’s that teams who aren’t battling it out for the division’s top prize can still be very capable and efficient in important defensive areas. In particular, Fleetwood have shown some defensive strengths despite their league positioning. Meanwhile, Sheffield Wednesday are living proof that a strong, consistent defensive foundation can be the key to a successful season, as they are many people’s favourites for the League One title. This analysis was aimed at offering some insight into how teams utilise defending in line with their respective tactical set-up, and we see that reflected in certain metrics.