Fight to the Finish: A statistical breakdown of the 2023/24 Bundesliga relegation battle – data analysis

As the Bundesliga season nears its conclusion, the relegation battle has reached a fever pitch, with several clubs on the edge of the abyss. In the German top flight, the stakes are high, as the last two positions in the league table result in direct relegation to the 2. Bundesliga. Meanwhile, the team finishing in 16th place faces a nerve-wracking two-leg playoff against the third-place finisher from the lower division.

While Darmstadt 98 has already been condemned to the second tier, the fight for survival intensifies among Köln, Mainz, Bochum, Union Berlin, and Gladbach. With each match becoming increasingly crucial, the tension mounts as these clubs battle to secure their Bundesliga status for another season.

In this data analysis, we delve into the statistics, trends, and data shaping this intense relegation battle in the 2023/2024 Bundesliga season.

Methodology

For this analysis of the relegation battle in the German Bundesliga, we will employ a comprehensive methodology to evaluate the performances of the clubs threatened by relegation. With 31 out of 34 games played in the 2023/2024 season, the clubs in focus include Köln, Mainz, Bochum, Union Berlin, and Gladbach, with Darmstadt already officially relegated. By systematically analyzing factors, we aim to provide a comprehensive overview of the relegation battle and evaluate which clubs are best positioned to secure their Bundesliga status by the end of the season.

Overall Performance

We will compare the actual points earned by each team with their expected points based on statistical models, providing insight into their overperformance or underperformance relative to expectations.

We will analyze the offensive output of each club by assessing both the number of goals scored and the expected goals based on shot quality and shot location data.