The Premier League’s allure lies in its unpredictability, a constant reshuffling of expectations, narratives, and momentum.
Even in a league defined by chaos and competitive balance, the early stages of the 2025-26 season have produced notable shifts when compared to the same point last year.
As the third international break arrives with all teams locked on 11 matches played, we’re finally past the “small sample size” threshold and can start drawing meaningful conclusions.
Looking at the table alone rarely tells the full story.
Manchester United in seventh may initially look underwhelming, but context shows a team that has steadied itself after a historically poor 2024-25 campaign.
Conversely, sides like Liverpool and Nottingham Forest paint a more troubling picture beneath the surface.
With that in mind, here’s how each club stacks up against its 2024-25 self, who’s rising, who’s collapsing, and who’s navigating the season on borrowed luck.
On the Rise: Manchester United
United offers a textbook case of how expectations shape perception.
They’ve taken just three more points than at this stage last season, yet the mood around Old Trafford is considerably brighter.
A five-match unbeaten run has stabilised the campaign, and only three Premier League teams have improved their point totals by more than United year-on-year.
Crystal Palace: The Biggest Climbers
No team has taken a bigger leap than Crystal Palace.
From seven points after 11 matchdays in 2024-25, a stretch that left Oliver Glasner reportedly fighting for his job, to ten points above that total this season, the transformation has been profound.
Their surge is even more impressive given Opta’s Power Rankings list Palace as having the second toughest schedule so far (92.7 average opponent rating).
Improved metrics tell the full story: non-penalty xG up from 13.25 to 17.71, and non-penalty xGA down from 16.43 to 11.95. Efficiency restored, identity strengthened, and credibility earned.
Arsenal: Leaders With Intent
Arsenal, four points clear at the summit, have accumulated 26 points, seven more than last season at this stage.
Their defensive excellence is unmatched: only five goals conceded, with a league-best non-penalty xGA of 6.13. Their positive xG difference of +11.6 is the strongest in two seasons, signalling balance, discipline, and purpose.
Everton
A 50% improvement in points (15 vs. 10) has lifted the mood at Goodison Park.
Even if their 2024-25 start was artificially boosted by a soft schedule, Everton are undeniably more competitive across the pitch.
Liverpool Are Heading In The Wrong Direction: Champions Under Pressure
Liverpool’s title defence has unravelled dramatically.
After a five-win start, they’ve lost five of their last six matches, the worst start by a reigning champion since Chelsea’s 2015-16.
Their 18 points represent a 10-point decline from last season, the largest year-on-year drop in the league.
Yet the situation is paradoxical: despite historical struggles, they remain just four points behind Manchester City.
Fixture difficulty has been brutal (the toughest schedule in the league), but Arne Slot must arrest the slide quickly.
Nottingham Forest
Forest are unrecognisable compared to last season’s high-flying European qualifiers.
Already on their third manager Nuno Espírito Santo, Ange Postecoglou, and now Sean Dyche they sit on nine points, ten fewer than this time a year ago.
Their decline is stark, their performances flat, and their momentum depleted.
Other Fallers: Fulham, Newcastle, Wolves
Fulham (-7), Newcastle (-6), and Wolves (remarkably worse than their nightmare start last season) all find themselves trending downwards.
Wolves, winless through 11 matches for the first time since 1983–84, face an ominous path reminiscent of campaigns ending in relegation.
Promoted Clubs: Holding Their Own
Leeds, Burnley, and Sunderland have collectively earned 40 points, 18 more than Ipswich, Leicester, and Southampton combined at this stage last year.
Sunderland’s impressive 19-point tally leads the way, but Burnley and Leeds have also matched or exceeded the previous promoted trio.
Their more cautious approach is paying dividends.
A combined non-penalty xG difference of -17.2 is significantly healthier than last year’s promoted sides (-33.05).
They may not play expansive football, but prudence might be precisely what keeps them up.
Tottenham: Cautious Optimism Wrapped In Warning Signs
Spurs have two more points than last season, yet their underlying numbers raise alarms.
A negative non-pen xG difference (-4.11), coupled with significant overperformance at both ends, suggests a fragile foundation. Their current fifth-place position may not be sustainable unless their performances improve.
The Bigger Picture
While early storylines provide clarity, the Premier League’s true judgment comes after matchday 38.
Some teams are trending upward, others downward, and many sit somewhere in between, relying on fine margins, scheduling quirks, or expected-goals volatility.
The road ahead is long, and the underlying data suggests it may feel far longer for some clubs than others.
Stay Ahead Of The Premier League Curve With Keolive
As the season continues to twist and turn, context becomes everything, and understanding the numbers behind the narrative is essential.
For fans who want to stay ahead of every trend, storyline, and statistical shift, Keolive remains one of the most trusted destinations for football coverage worldwide.
With real-time Premier League data, expert tactical analysis, fixture difficulty models, expected-goals insights, match predictions and live updates across every major competition, Keolive delivers the full picture not just the scoreline.
From deep-dive reports to breaking news and in-depth analytics, Keolive.net is where football fans go to stay informed, engaged, and one step ahead of the game.
