Unlocking Penalty Perfection: Varying step length and speed of the run-up – set-piece analysis

The xG of a penalty kick is 0.76, meaning a penalty kick is expected to result in a goal 76% of the time. However, after extensive research of 224 penalty kicks taken during the 2021/22 season in the Premier League and La Liga, it is clear that certain factors can massively increase the chance of a penalty being converted.

First of all, it is important to mention that while this analysis will disclose the trends amongst successful penalties and methods players could use to improve the success of a penalty kick, at the end of the day, a penalty is dependent on many different factors, such as the takers ball striking technique, which is not being taken into account at the moment. Even if a penalty uses the common successful trends in this article, it is reliant on each player and their ability to strike the ball accurately.

Inspired by Geir Jordets insights into the psychological aspect of penalty kicks, with players taking their time before the first step of their run-up, my research aligns with the information presented by him. 85% of penalties taken by players who wait over 5 seconds after the referees whistle result in goals, while the figure drops to 81% for players who begin their run-up within 3-5 seconds of the whistle. This figure then drops down to 75% for any players who begin their run-up within 3 seconds of the referees signal. Players who can compose themselves before the penalty kick run-up are able to significantly increase the chance of scoring a penalty. This analysis will focus on the different run-ups, and the ability of an individual to wait and relax under the pressure to execute their run-up & kick is essential.

In this tactical analysis, we will examine the tactics behind different run-ups for penalty kicks and examine their benefits in depth. This set-piece analysis will find the advantages of different penalty run-ups and explain why changing step length and speed is crucial to negating a goalkeepers power step and, therefore, giving attackers more space to aim at in the goal.

Issues with Consistent Run-Ups

Consistent run-ups resulted in goals on 76% of occasions, while penalty run-ups, which included stutters or players accelerating/decelerating, saw a rise to 80% success rates.

When a goalkeeper faces a player with a steady movement towards the ball during the run-up, they can assume the moment at which the player will strike the ball and time when to dive and perform the power step (the step which allows the goalkeeper to generate the spring to reach the post). In the example below, Dean Henderson knows how Harry Kane prepares for a penalty, and he is able to move early before the ball is kicked when attempting to save the penalty. There is no threat of Kane stuttering, so Henderson can afford to move early, with no threat of Kane reacting to the keepers movements and changing his decision. The early power step means Henderson can cover the entire bottom right of the goal, meaning if he does guess the right way, he is likely to save the penalty, as he does in this particular example.

Bayern Munichs Harry Kane possesses excellent ball striking, which means that he is often able to hit the ball into the top corner, giving goalkeepers no chance even if they guess early. However, his consistent run-up gives goalkeepers the chance to guess early, meaning he doesnt give himself the best possible chance of scoring penalties, as goalkeepers have the chance of saving the strike if they guess a bottom corner correctly.

Long Run-Ups

In order to disrupt a goalkeepers power step, thus preventing them from generating the spring to reach the bottom corners of the goal, players have started using different methods during the run-up to a penalty kick. Long run-ups involving players taking nine steps or more have resulted in a 100% success rate from the data my research has found, although that did only include six attempts.

The longer a run-up is, the more opportunities a player has to vary the speed and step length of their run-up. When a player does alter their run-up, the goalkeeper no longer has the chance of being able to accurately predict the moment when the kick will be taken, thus stopping them from making that power step early, meaning that they are unable to reach the bottom corners of the goal. By only varying the step length and speed of their run-up, a penalty taker will have been able to create the space needed in the bottom corner to score a goal, as long as they are able to consistently place the ball in that very spot.

As we can see in the example below, Paul Pogbas l