Understanding Sports Betting Odds Ahead of the New Season
Incredibly, the new EPL season is now less than one month away, with Crystal Palace scheduled to take on Arsenal at Selhurst Park on August 5th and kickstart the new campaign.
This relatively early start date is due to the unusual scheduling of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, but regardless of this, the brand new season will offer numerous opportunities to profit from sports betting.
However, to bet wisely and responsibly you’ll need to understand basic odds formats and how prices are set by sportsbooks. So, here’s a brief guide to help you on your way!
An Introduction to Odds
In simple terms, odds describe the ratio that exists between the amounts staked by participants in relation to a specific wager.
So, if a particular outcome has fractional odds of 2/1, this means that the first party (or the sportsbook) is willing to commit twice the amount wagered by the second party (you, the punter) that your selection won’t be successful.
If they’re right, your bet will lose and your stake will be gone. If they’re wrong and the wager comes in, however, the sportsbook will payout at the ratio of 2/1 and guarantee you a return on your bankroll.
But how do bookies formulate their odds? Well, this is largely based on probability, which is calculated by multiple variables including the number of potential outcomes, the quality of competitors, form and home advantage (where applicable).
They also look to create odds that drive equal betting volumes on both sides of the equation, in a bid to ensure a profit of between 5% and 10% per wager on average.
While bookmaker odds don’t offer a fully accurate insight into the probability of your chosen outcome actually happening, they can be used to gauge your approximate chances of winning. This is referred to as implied probability, while there’s even a simple formula to help calculate this. It reads as follows:
Probability (%) = B / (A+B)
Here, the A/B values reflect the numerical odds in play. As an example, let’s say that you wanted to back Tottenham to win the 2022/23 EPL title, at an average real-time price of 14/1.
To calculate the implied probability of this happening, the relevant equation would read 1 / (14+1) = 0.06. This means that Spurs are perceived as having a 6% chance of winning the 2022/23 Premier League, enabling you to make a judgement call on the value of the odds and your likely stake should you choose to place a bet.
Using Odds to Calculate Returns
If you’re going to place sports bets in the coming season, you should know that prices can also be used to calculate your potential winnings.
We can even do this using the A/B values from the equation above, as when placing a winning bet, you can essentially expect to win ‘A’ for the value of every ‘B’ that you stake.
Using the same example of Spurs winning the EPL, let’s say that you stake £5 on the outcome becoming an eventually. At odds of 14/1, a successful £5 bet will return £70 in pure profit and £75 in total when you factor in the return of your stake amount.
Conversely, Manchester City are the Premier League favourites and odds-on to win at a price of 8/13. In this scenario, you’ll win less than £1 for every pound that you wager, with a £5 stake delivering a £3.08 profit and a total return of £8.08 if the Citizens prevail.
These examples highlight the delicate balance between risk and reward when sports betting, while they should encourage you to tailor your stake based on the odds in play.
The Bottom Line
On a final note, you should keep your eyes peeled for relevant sports betting welcome offers and free bets when looking to optimise value for money.
This rule applies equally to both remote betting and online casino gameplay, with the latter vertical synonymous with generous and potentially lucrative welcome promotions like the current GG Poker sign-up offer.
With the intelligent use of bonus offers and a clear understanding of odds, value and implied probability, you can hopefully place informed and balanced bets that enable you to make hay during the next Premier League season.