Credit: Standard.co.uk
Football without fans looks odd. Sure, it’s necessary given the circumstances. But no one would have wanted it this way. Fans love watching games live in the stadium. And those watching on TV or streaming online enjoy games with spectators better.
All the same, we are living in a new normal. And football has to go on without fans until things get better. Meanwhile, there’s no denying that sportsbooks are setting odds differently with things the way they are. Here’s why.
The Best Sports Betting Sites in the USA
Sports betting is increasingly becoming legal in the US. Unlike the UK, betting is controlled by states. They decide whether to permit online betting, sports to be wagered and even the number of allowed bookies.
For a long time, the only way Americans could be on sports was through British and Malta-based sportsbooks. But now that they have legal bookies in their states, they’re becoming less loyal to offshore sites.
According to legalbettingsites.info, the best sports betting sites in the US aren’t just taking customers from British bookies. But they are also providing better odds to Americans, even when sports have no fans in attendance.
No Home Advantage
Home advantage isn’t a myth. It’s a fact: Home teams win roughly 40% of league games. There are several factors that contribute to this—well, besides the fact that they’re playing at home.
The presence of a crowd is one of them. The noise, cheering of home fans and booing away teams all contribute in giving home teams an edge. They also know their home pitch better thanks to practicing on the same pitch regularly.
Unfortunately, some of these factors are absent this season. And due to that, home teams don’t really have a significant advantage. At least one study backs up this claim. Done in Germany after Bundesliga returned, the study shows that clubs that usually won 40% of home games were no winning 20%.
Fewer Goals
There are mixed feelings about this, especially now that players are getting used to playing without fans. When the season started, most teams scored fewer goals than pundits expected. The explanation was that football isn’t intense when fans are absent.
The roaring of fans pushes teams to fight for goals and victories from the start of the end. They defend more know there are fans ready to boo if they sit back and relax. On the flip side, visiting teams also play with motivation, especially not to disappoint their traveling fans.
With that in mind, teams seem to be accepting the new normal. And they’re no longer affected by the lack of fans. A case in point is Premier League Clubs breaking the record for the most goals scored in a weekend—44 goals.
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
As mentioned, teams tend to have a lot of pressure to score when there are fans. Or they’re pushed to chase clean sheets. With no fans, not every club is worried about disappointing spectators.
As such, chasing equalizers and clean sheets isn’t exactly a priority of every club in these pandemic times. Does that mean you should avoid BTTS bets? Not exactly. But keep in mind that the odds both teams scoring is slightly lower now that there are no spectators.
Inefficient Odds
A number of betting experts believe football odds have been relatively inefficient this season. One explanation is that bookies have been trying to make adjustments to put into account the lack of fans.
But in the process, they undervalue some teams and overvalue others. This is great news for punter. Bookmakers tend to be highly efficient in setting odds. So, when they seem to be dropping the ball, it’s time to celebrate.
To expound more, your chances of spotting value odds are highest when there’s an undervalued team. It could be the home or away team. The bottom line is to check the implied win rate versus what your research says.
Let’s say Arsenal are hosting Manchester United in a league game. The Gunners beat the Red Devils the last time they met. But United have been pretty consistent these days. Now, a bookie could set fairly long odds for the Manchester team expecting them to lose.
But since your research shows otherwise, you could wager on them to capitalize on the long odds. That’s how value betting works. It’s one of the best tools for winning money in football consistently. And it’s highly valued by professionals.
Less Pressure on Officials
Football officials are often under the pressure to favor home teams. And according to one study, many referees are lenient with home teams whereas they punish visiting sides rather often.
The result is that fewer cards being showed now that teams don’t play in fronts of TV. Officials are calmer and have no pressure. Of course, fewer cards means bookies are no longer siding with any team when it comes to bets related to cards.
They have also adjusted their odds to reflect the fact that players prone to cards might receive them less in these trying times. That said, not everyone agrees with the observation. According to the BBC, not every referee seems perturbed by the lack of fans.
In Germany, for example, officials resumed football by producing 25 yellow cards in the first weekend. They showed a further 25 cards in the next weekend, continuing a pattern that started before the pandemic.
More Play Time
BBC pundit Gary Lineker believes the lack of fans is discouraging fans against wasting time. And as a result, they are spending more time playing than during when they play in front of crowds. In turn, this is reducing the advantage some teams gain by wasting time. What’s more, it’s minimizing the need for extended extra time.
Still on play time, more teams are allowing their youngsters to shine now that don’t face abuse from fans who think they don’t deserve the play time. Coaches also have less pressure to only lineup experienced players. However, that means bookies are changing odds constantly due to these trends.
