Euro 2024 Elo Sims – Top Teams And Underdogs Analysed – Data Analysis

As the excitement builds for UEFA Euro 2024 in Germany, fans and analysts alike are eager to predict which team will emerge victorious.

With numerous factors influencing the outcome of such a prestigious tournament, a comprehensive data analysis can provide valuable insights into potential champions.

By leveraging advanced metrics, including the widely respected Elo rating system, we can assess team strengths, form, and performance trends to make informed predictions.

In this analysis, well dive deep into the statistics to evaluate the contenders and determine who stands the best chance of lifting the trophy at Euro 2024.

Elo Sims Methodology

To predict the UEFA Euro 2024 champion, we will utilize the Elo rating system, a method originally developed by Dr.

Arpad Elo for rating chess players.

This system has been adapted for international football, providing a reliable measure of team strength based on match results and various contextual factors.

The Elo rating system evaluates the relative skill levels of players or teams in competitor-versus-competitor games.

For football, Elo ratings are calculated based on the results of international A matches, incorporating adjustments for the type of match, home team advantage, and goal difference.

The primary data for international football results is obtained from established databases such as rsssf.com (for data up to 2019), theroonba.com, and soccer-db.info (discontinued).

These sources compile comprehensive match results, which are essential for accurate Elo rating calculations.

Elo ratings converge on a teams true strength relative to its competitors after approximately 30 matches.

Therefore, teams with fewer than 30 matches are considered to have provisional ratings, which may not fully reflect their competitive strength.

By using this methodology, we aim to provide a data-driven prediction of the UEFA Euro 2024 champion, offering a robust analysis grounded in a well-established rating system.

Group A

As the host nation, Germany not only enjoy the home advantage but also boast the highest Elo rating in Group A at 1920.

Historically a football powerhouse, Germanys blend of experienced veterans and emerging talents makes them a formidable opponent.

Their tactical flexibility and depth in squad options give them a significant edge.

With the support of the home crowd and a robust tactical setup, Germany are the clear favourites to top the group and advance to the knockout stages.

With an Elo rating of 1832, Hungary sit in a competitive position within Group A.

The Hungarian team has shown resilience and tactical acumen in recent international fixtures, making them a dark horse in this group.

Their ability to adapt to different play styles and exploit their opponents weaknesses will be crucial.

Hungarys matches against Scotland and Switzerland will be pivotal in determining their fate in the tournament.

A strong performance could see them securing one of the top two spots or at least a chance to qualify as one of the best third-placed teams.

Switzerland, with an Elo rating of 1805, are another strong contender in Group A.

Known for their organized defense and effective counter-attacking strategies, the Swiss team has consistently performed well in recent tournaments.

Their ability to remain composed under pressure and execute their game plan efficiently makes them a formidable opponent.

Switzerlands balanced squad and tactical discipline could see them finishing in the top two and advancing to the knockout stages.

Scotland enter the tournament with an Elo rating of 1770.

Known for their gritty and determined style of play, the Scots will look to leverage their physicality and team spirit.

While they might not have the star power of Germany, their cohesive unit and tactical discipline could see them challenging for a top-two finish.

Their matches will likely be tight contests, and they must capitalise on any opportunities that arise to secure points.

Group B

Spain enter the tournament as the highest-ranked team in Group B with an Elo rating of 2020.

Known for their possession-based style of play, patient build-up and tactical sophistication, Spain are favorites to top the group.

Their squad depth, technical proficiency, an