Premier League Moneyball: Not Newcastle

Tactical Revolution does NOT include Rafas Newcastle

Moneyball has become a general term in sports that describes using data to find an undervalued edge that can be exploited into a competitive advantage. Eventually, the rest of the league catches up making the edge no longer undervalued. Off the pitch we see Moneyball play out in player valuation. An academy player from Valencia CF will cost more than an academy player from Vancouver. Teams scour the data for undervalued leagues and players to gain an edge over the competition.

On the field, we are seeing Moneyball play out in the assigning value to shots and recruiting or coaching in order to maximise the value of each possession in getting a high-value shot. As I wrote previously, Premier League Moneyball, we are in the midst of a tactical revolution based on minimising low-value shots. This revolution does not include Rafas Newcastle United.

Rafa Please Get Jonjo to Stop Shooting

13 of 20 Premier League teams took less than 40% of their shots from outside the box last season. This is the clear trend in football. One team not onboard with the revolution is Rafa Benitez’s Newcastle United.

The chart above shows the percentage of shots taken from outside the box in the 17-18 Premier League season. The average of all teams was 39.7%. Newcastle is clearly an outlier in terms of their shot selection with a whopping 47% of shots taken from outside the penalty area.

Is it Rafa?

The char