EURO 2020 Preview: Denmark’s 3-4-3 may hold their semi-final golden ticket vs Czech Republic – tactical analysis

Saturday’s early EURO 2020 kickoff sees the Czech Republic take on Denmark in Baku Olympic Stadium. Denmark will go into this game off the back of a hot streak, scoring eight and conceding just one in their last two games. Meanwhile, although the Czechs haven’t been as prolific in front of goal as their upcoming opponents of late, scoring five in their four EURO 2020 games so far, they’ve only conceded two goals in this summer’s European Championships.

Evidently, Denmark have been one of the best teams going forward in the last two gameweeks of this competition. They are bested by only Spain in that regard. Both Denmark and the Czech Republic have earned the right to name themselves amongst those with the best defensive records in the last two gameweeks, however, with just England and Belgium conceding fewer in that time (0).

In this tactical analysis piece, in the form of a tactical preview, we’ll provide tactical analysis of some key elements of both Denmark and the Czech Republic’s tactics. We’ll preview how we believe both sides are likely to set up on Saturday and we’ll highlight some potential keys to victory, including how Denmark’s 3-4-3  which they’ve utilised for the majority of EURO 2020  and the versatile options in their squad could hold Czech Republic’s kryptonite and forge a way into the semi-final, where the winner of this game is set to take on the winner of England vs Ukraine.

Predicted lineups and formations

Firstly, we predict that Jaroslav Šilhavý will set his team up in the 4-2-3-1 shape that they’ve used in the majority of their games in this tournament in their quarter-final clash with Denmark. We expect Tomáš Vaclík, who most recently played for Sevilla at club level and has been linked with clubs like Sevillistas Rojiblancos’ La Liga rivals Barcelona and Serie A side Napoli of late, to retain his place in goal, where he’ll play behind the Czechs’ regular back four comprising of right-back Vladimír Coufal, right centre-back Ondřej Čelůstka, left centre-back Tomáš Kalas, and left-back Jan Bořil  the latter of whom will be available again following his suspension for Czech Republic’s win Round of 16 clash with the Netherlands.

Coufal’s West Ham United teammate Tomáš Souček and Tomáš Holeš will likely start in the holding midfield positions, behind right-winger Lukáš Masopust, left-winger Jakub Jankto, Vladimír Darida in the ‘10’ position, and Patrik Schick at centre-forward. Holding midfielder Alex Král, centre-forward Adam Hložek and central midfielder Petr Ševčík are other potential starting XI options who are likely to at least make a substitute appearance at some point on Saturday, as each of them have gotten onto the pitch at some point in all four of their nations EURO 2020 games so far this summer.

As for the Danes, we anticipate that Kasper Hjulmand will set his side up in the 3-4-3 shape they’ve utilised for the majority of this tournament, reverting from the 4-3-3 that they switched to during their Round of 16 clash with Wales  a tactical decision that proved vital in the Danish win and which highlighted the tactical and positional versatility within Hjulmand’s squad. Should they need to, they can make a switch like this again in Saturday’s game, however, as we’ll go on to discuss later in this tactical preview, the 3-4-3 may actually be a perfect solution to Czech Republic’s tactics.

Denmark have one of Europe’s best goalkeepers at their disposal in the form of Kasper Schmeichel. We expect him to start in goal on Saturday behind a back three which will ideally be comprised of right centre-back Andreas Christensen, centre-back Simon Kjær, and left centre-back Jannik Vestergaard. However, Kjær remains a doubt for this game having come off injured versus Wales and Joachim Andersen may be drafted in to replace him. However, Kjær has played a key role for Denmark in this tournament and if there’s a chance he can play, that may be a risk worth taking for Hjulmand with a semi-final place at stake, though Andersen is a capable replacement.

We expect Daniel Wass to start at right wing-back across from Joakim Mæhle at left wing-back, while Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg and Thomas Delaney will likely continue their partnership in central midfield. Lastly, we predict that Denmark’s front three will consist of Martin Braithwaite on the right, Mikkel Damsgaard on the left, and Kasper Dolberg in the centre-forward position, with Yussuf Poulsen potentially lacking match fitness. Right-back Jens Stryger Larsen, centre-forward Andreas Cornelius, and central midfielder Mathias Jensen have all also featured in each of Denmark’s four games so far in this competition, so could be Hjulmand’s most likely substitutes for this one too.

The Czech Republic in possession

One notable aspect of the Czech Republic’s tactics in possession is that they’ve made fewer dribbles on average (13.32 per 90) than any other side to have competed at EURO 2020. They utilise 1v1s and take-ons less than most inside the final third, while they don’t tend to progress the ball via runs a lot, instead preferring to try and pass their way into crossing positions high up the pitch and progress through the thirds, bit by bit, via intricate short passing sequences. They also direct long-balls from the back towards attackers quite often, as 187cm (6’2”) Schick and even 192cm (6’4”) Souček  who advances from his base holding midfield position  often enjoy a physical advantage over an opposition defender who they’ll deliberately stand on, at times, during the ball progression phase to target.

Figure 1 shows a typical example of how the Czech Republic look while building an attack via short passing. Firstly, their centre-backs tend to shift very wide, allowing a lot of space to form between them which can allow the opposition to cut them off from one another relatively easily. However, they take this risk to form the wide diamond that we see on the right here. This shape creates lots of natural passing angles for the Czech centre-backs, holding midfielders and full-backs, making ball progression via short passes easier.

In this example, The ball moved from the right centre-back to the right holding midfielder to the right-winger, who’s dropped from his advanced attacking position to a slightly deeper one, supporting his deeper teammates to form the tip of this diamond. The wingers play a key role in Czech Republic’s build-up because of this movement. From here, they can potentially carry the ball forward, however, more often, they continue to progress via short passing. As the winger turns here, he’ll have the right-back  who we see advancing in figure 1  as a short passing option to his right, the ‘10’ to his left, and the centre-forward as the furthest forward passing option.

Centre-forward Schick is often required to m