Union Saint-Gilloise vs Anderlecht data analysis: Which team was more efficient in the transfer market?

The Belgian Pro League is finally back this weekend, with the first match of the new campaign occurring on Friday night. It also happens to be a Brussels derby for the first match of the new season, with Alexander Blessins Union Saint-Gilloise welcoming Brian Riemers Anderlecht to the Stade Joseph Marien. 

However, we will look at this matchup from a different angle instead of just a basic match preview. When analysing the transfer activity of both sides, they are two of the most profitable clubs in Belgian football this transfer window, and the question is whether they could effectively replace their departed stars. 

USG lost a few key starters for the Brussels-based side last campaign, with Nigerian striker Victor Boniface being sold to Bayer Leverkusen for a fee of over €20m. In contrast, club captain Teddy Teuma was sold to Reims in France. They also lost two centre-backs, with Siebe van der Heyden being sold to Mallorca and Ismaël Kandouss to Gent. Regarding key incomings, USG made Koki Machidas loan move from Kashima Antlers permanent while also bringing in Liverpool midfielder Alexis Mac Allisters brother Kevin from Argentinos Juniors as another centre-back option. 

Blessins side also strengthened the midfield area, with Charles Vanhoutte coming in from Cercle Brugge and 25-year-old Norwegian Mathias Rasmussen coming in from Eliteserian side Brann. For centre-forward depth, they brought in 25-year-old Elton Kabangu from Willem II on a free transfer as well, adding depth to the group after the departure of Boniface. 

Brian Riemers Anderlecht were not as active in the transfer market as their Brussels counterparts, but they still had to deal with losing some players. None is probably more impactful than Dutch U21 goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen, who was sold to Brighton for a substantial fee. The club also sold some depth players, with midfielder Kristoffer Olsen being sold to Midtjylland, backup goalkeeper Hendrik van Crombrugge being sold to Genk, and losing Lior Refaelov on a free transfer to Maccabi Haifa. 

Regarding incomings for Anderlecht, their biggest is the signing of former Ajax and Nice striker Kasper Dolberg and bringing in Belgian U21 fullback Louis Patris from Leuven. The club also brought in their new starting goalkeeper to replace Bart Verbruggen, with 30-year-old Frenchman Maxime Dupé coming in from Toulouse on a free transfer.

This data analysis piece will go over both clubs key transfers this summer, looking at how they fit into their new managers tactics, how they compare to the Player they are replacing, and also potentially seeing who did the better business. 

Union Saint-Gilloise  Victor Boniface vs. Elton Kabangu 

Now we will look more in-depth into the new signings of each side, looking at how they may fit into the managers tactics and their general fit into the squad. Starting with USG, the Belgian sides most significant departure was undoubtedly Nigerian striker Victor Boniface, who was sold to Xabi Alonsos Bayer Leverkusen for a substantial fee.

The introduction of Elton Kabangu on a free transfer leaves Blessin with three recognised centre-forwards at his disposal, with the German manager preferring a 3-5-2 formation. Along with Kabangu, the Belgian side have 26-year old German Dennis Eckert, who they brought in on a free last summer from FC Ingolstadt, and 26-year-old Swede Gustaf Nilsson, who was also brought in last summer from German side Wehen Wiesbaden. 

Looking back at last season, Boniface played in 55 matches in all competitions for USG, scoring 22 goals and contributing 12 assists. This is a huge number of goal contributions that the Belgian side is losing, with the three aforementioned players having the majority of responsibility on their shoulders. Meanwhile, Nilsson managed 11 goals in all competitions last season, while Eckert only scored 3. 

It would however be unsurprising to see Elton Kabangu come in and start right away for Alexander Blessins side, with the 25-year-old forward scoring 13 goals and grabbing another six assists for Willem II last season in the Eerste Divisie. Getting the forward on a free transfer could also be a pretty good piece of business for the Belgian side, with them not having the biggest budget of the Belgian sides. 

The data viz graphic above shows the shots taken and goals scored by both Victor Boniface and Elton Kabangu in all competitions last season. While Boniface scored more goals, Kabangu took fewer shots, resulting in a higher xG per shot. However, USG were one of the strongest teams in Belgium last season, with them usually outshooting their opponents throughout a match. At the same time, Willem II were not as dominant in the Dutch second division. 

Also, Kabangus shots are more concentrated around the penalty spot and six-yard box, with all but five of his shots coming from outside the 18-yard box. Both strikers overperformed their xG for last season, meaning there could be a slight drop-off for both next season. Looking at it from face value, it seems like Kabangu could be a viable replacement for the departed Boniface. However, it is best to look deeper to see how he compares directly to the Nigerian forward.