In the aftermath of the first 16 matchdays of the 2023/24 Bundesliga season, a comprehensive analysis unveils intriguing patterns and trends. As the league now enters its winter break, the performances of various teams beg scrutiny, separating those that have exceeded expectations from those that have fallen short.
This data analysis navigates through statistical landscapes, identifying overperforming and underperforming teams that have shaped the narrative of German football.
Beyond retrospection, this analysis extends into the future, attempting to predict the trajectory these trends might set as the season progresses. This analysis delves into the statistics, dissecting the highs, lows, and the enigmatic trajectories that have characterised the Bundesliga in the initial phase of the 2023/24 season.
Overperforming Teams
After the initial 16 matchdays of the 2023/24 season, the Bundesliga unfolds a narrative of overperforming teams that have defied statistical expectations.
Among these, Bayer Leverkusen emerges as a standout, accumulating 42 points against an expected 33.1 xPoints. Their offensive prowess is vividly demonstrated by the fact that theyve scored an impressive 46 goals, exceeding the expected 35.79 xG. Victor Boniface contributed 17 goals (10 goals and seven assists) but will miss in the first matches in the new year due to his nomination for the Africa Cup. Wing-backs Alejandro Grimaldo (seven goals, six assists) and Jeremie Frimpong (five goals and seven assists) are considered key players under Xabi Alonso.
Despite a somewhat underwhelming xPoints of 23.5, Borussia Dortmund has managed to secure 27 points. A notable aspect is their goalkeeper Gregor Kobel, who has conceded 25 goals compared to the expected 30.37 xG against. This indicates a level of defensive resilience that has contributed to their overperformance.
However, Borussia Dortmund finds itself grappling with a set of challenges, particularly in their game structure, which falls short of the standards expected from a club of their stature. A conspicuous issue emerges when opponents navigate through their defensive lines. Dortmund tends to resort to the long ball strategy, averaging 40.94 per 90. This approach prioritises winning second balls over building up play through intricate combinations, highlighting a deliberate choice to keep distances large during the build-up phase.
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